Why should this year happen the same like after the 2011 bubble?

[Komodorpudel]

Hey

i heard like a thousand times in the last weeks that the 2013 bubble is not over("it will go to 10 for sure"), because 2011 bubble was not over at this stage etc.

Also a lot of pics were posted, which compared the charts of both bubbles, but why should the exact same happen, what happend in 2011? ( I am neither bullish nor bearish, i just want to know why the same thing like in 2011 should happen.) I can not belive that the BTC price will lose once again over 90% compared to the bubble peak, her is why:

1. In 2011 nobody, really nobody knew what bitcoin is, in 2013 we are on a whole new level of awareness.

2. Right now we have already 2 BTC Exchange traded funds getting started.(In 2011: 0)

3. Even EZB and the FED discussed about crypto currencies in theire conferences, realizing that "this bitcoin thing" could become something serious.(Didn't happen in 2011)

4. Thanks to the media and liberty reserve almost everybody at least knows a litte bit about bitcoin and some recognized that is has a true value to society. (Any publicity is good publicity) (Not in 2011)

5. Big players are thinking about accepting BTC and a lot of new BTC businesses started the last few months. (Not in 2011)

6. AND: History does not repeat itself! (When this would be true, every idiot in this world could become a millionaire by simply using a successfully backtested simple Moving Averages tradingsystem)


Now: I don't want to say that the BTC price should rise right now, but i also can't belive that the same loss in value that happend after the 2011 bubble will happen again this year.

But please tell me: Why should the price fall, the same way it happened in 2011?
Thanks


But please: Do not write any bullshit like "<260 buyer detected". I am not.

[bitcryptonit]

because some people wants to be that way so they know what bitcoin price will be. If they would stop to convince people about this then nobody would know what will happen next and next bubble could start forming.

[ElectricMucus]

Compared to 2011 it took 2.5 times as long to reach the top, and so far the crunch seems to take 2.5 times the time as well based on current levels. I don't think it is necessary it stays that way but if it does I'm fine with it.

[Bitcoin BEAR]

From a technical analysis perspective, once we passed $32, we went straight to $50. Hung out there for a bit, and kept climbing without so much as a real correction. No, a dump here and there is not a meaningful correction. All those supports must now be retested to build confidence in the market. If we just fell to $100 and stayed there, it would have taken a long time for everyone (current Bitcoiners, whales, coming newbs...etc) to become confident that the price wouldn't just fall as soon as he/she bought in. Remember, only 6 months ago Bitcoin was trading at $15, and those kinds of gains are unheard of in 'Real' markets. So as we fall, supports are broken and become resistances, and we retest the $32 high from '11, if that holds, then we can see that boost of confidence needed to start back up. If it breaks, then the true price hasn't been found yet meaning the current price of ~$77 is obviously too high.

From a fundamental POV, Bitcoin can't be used for that much yet. Sure, some sites that no one has heard of accepts BTC, the Twinklevii fund, a few other stories in the news are meh...so so at best. You can't pay for your necessities with it yet (utilities, mortgage, car loans/insurance, TAXES...) So the fundamentals aren't really there right now.

From a (un)lucky speculator side, The winners in the rise to $266 haven't lost their money yet. Have you ever heard of the 80/20 rule? That says that 80% must lose so the 20% can win. Until 80% of the winning side money is lost in bad trades, this correction won't be done. I added this one as more of a troll, but it remains true!

[molecular]

If everyone believes it, it comes true. A self-fullfilling prophecy.

It's also why TA works (more often than not), btw.