Hey
i heard like a thousand times in the last weeks that the 2013 bubble is not over("it will go to 10 for sure"), because 2011 bubble was not over at this stage etc.
Also a lot of pics were posted, which compared the charts of both bubbles, but why should the exact same happen, what happend in 2011? ( I am neither bullish nor bearish, i just want to know why the same thing like in 2011 should happen.) I can not belive that the BTC price will lose once again over 90% compared to the bubble peak, her is why:
1. In 2011 nobody, really nobody knew what bitcoin is, in 2013 we are on a whole new level of awareness.
2. Right now we have already 2 BTC Exchange traded funds getting started.(In 2011: 0)
3. Even EZB and the FED discussed about crypto currencies in theire conferences, realizing that "this bitcoin thing" could become something serious.(Didn't happen in 2011)
4. Thanks to the media and liberty reserve almost everybody at least knows a litte bit about bitcoin and some recognized that is has a true value to society. (Any publicity is good publicity) (Not in 2011)
5. Big players are thinking about accepting BTC and a lot of new BTC businesses started the last few months. (Not in 2011)
6. AND: History does not repeat itself! (When this would be true, every idiot in this world could become a millionaire by simply using a successfully backtested simple Moving Averages tradingsystem)
Now: I don't want to say that the BTC price should rise right now, but i also can't belive that the same loss in value that happend after the 2011 bubble will happen again this year.
But please tell me: Why should the price fall, the same way it happened in 2011?
Thanks
But please: Do not write any bullshit like "<260 buyer detected". I am not.