Shipped ASICs = Bitcoin goes down?

[Photon939]

I think a large portion of the effect ASICs will have on the market will depend on BFL's shipping tables. If they ship out a huge order of several TH/s at once, it is likely that we will see a much larger market fluctuation than if they only ship out a few units at a time.

Add into that mess the effect of the mining subsidy halving and you have (IMO) too many unknowns to have any real idea of how the market will behave.

[phatsphere]

... and don't forget, the usual other factors. the more the economy problems get worse, the more will invest into bitcoin - not too much, but many investing just a bit also counts. 

[IMakeComps]

Why are we assuming that difficulty jumps have any effect on price?

[Transisto]

Why are we assuming that difficulty jumps have any effect on price?

Cost more to produce, increased security, ... Among others !!!

[FreeMoney]

In the CPU mining days when GPU software was just being developed, there wasn't much talk of the price going down, or that it would be bad for bitcoin. Why is it different this time?

Video cards have value outside of bitcoin.  low risk of lost investment if bitcoin plummets.  With BFL, i suspect people will want to get their money out of the hardware asap... but im sure some of them are in for the long haul. 

For a lot of people getting their money means getting bitcoins.

[smoothie]

Stop wishing bitcoins are $5 or even $6.

Heh. I'm looking forward for good ole $2...

Okay see you at $100+. Then you can buy higher.

 

C'mon, there's a much better chance the price will be $2 sometime in the next, say, 6 months than $100.

Using what measuring stick? The fed is printing $40 billion each month at least. You think perhaps the value of a limited currency would go up and not down.

[OgNasty]

Re: Shipped ASICs = Bitcoin goes down?

I don't think ASICs will have an effect on BTC price.  The block reward halving will outweigh the effect of coins being produced at a faster rate between difficulty jumps.