BTC Technical Analysis

[moynul2050]

from your predictions, right now, bitcoin has exceeded your expectations, even now bitcoin touches the price of $ 5,811 (source: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/)

although this can't be said to be a bull run but I really applaud your very good predictions.
analytical techniques from an experienced trader really help beginner traders.

[CryptoReggae]

💊 BTC Update

Correction coming?

Bitcoin after having invalidated a short-term support (now become resistance) moves sideways, reversing the short-term trend.

Is a new correction coming?
The support of the SMA 100, which supports BTC from further short-term losses, is gradually tightening the price on important resistances.
 
$ 3835, SMA 50, an important area between $ 3922 and $ 3964, and still $ 4100 are hardly surmountable resistances without a notable bull thrust, this could lead to "pushing" BTC to a further correction at least up to $ 3600 area, then from there we will go to analyze further supports and resistors.

Further correction towards the downside can be expected in the next few hours.

https://i.imgur.com/dJjEwrv.png

These analysis are wrong at times. The one I read before was saying different from what is being said here. Buh whatever, I already knew that there is not going to be anything better this first quarter of the year. I really hope that things change by the end of the year. 🙄 Tired of the price dropping at all times, I rely mostly on the long term strategy and that’s not working out if price continues like this.

Short and long term must be understood as different operations and strategies, which however can be carried out together clearly in different modes of execution.
Actually my predictions turned out to be correct, just analyze them in sequence point by point.

In particular, to the post you report, I talked about a "probable descent in the next few hours" (it was a very short-term trade), just look at the two images to understand:

https://imgur.com/dJjEwrv
https://imgur.com/8JhQvgo

Later I had analyzed a probable climb up to over 5k, explaining it in this post
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5115951.msg50171268#msg50171268

and also attaching the medium-term chart:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/DB8fxdcn/

I also stated in that last post, and I want to reiterate it, that
"The risk now, and you can look at my last graph (https://www.tradingview.com/x/DB8fxdcn/), is that eventually going to 5k, the mass Bearish trend is over, when it probably won't be. "
These were my words, and honestly I do not see any errors in my analyzes, but I am ready to analyze all my possible mistakes if I had ever noticed them.
I want to emphasize that every analysis is not error-free, but objectively I have practically taken them all, both in the short and in the medium/long term.


To be honest, the only thing I probably never imagined, is that the climb took place in such a short time (I expected to exceed 5k by the end of May / mid-June), but this speed was probably triggered by the Tether problem.

[CryptoReggae]

BTC Long Term Analisys - 05-05-2019 by CryptoReggae


I try to update my long-term analysis,
since the last real analysis was made by me on March 15th with a target of 5.1k (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5115951.msg50171268#msg50171268), but then in practice by me moved to $5215 and closed there. From $5215 touched on April 3rd I closed all LONG positions.

After a very long ride that began at the February low, we reached the new highs of the year touched yesterday, 4 May 2019.
The climb, although I expected, was in my opinion very "supported", almost forced, with volumes not worthy of such a climb, as if to close the swing in advance.
The bullish push we can imagine that very soon it will be exhausted, a matter of hours / days.

What to expect in the coming weeks/months?
We are in the SWING area, or the strength of the bulls is at its peak. The inversion area is between $5780/$6345 (Bitstamp value, Kraken, NO USDT).
We could expect an acceleration of the events, in particular driven by the expected news of Bitfinex and the possible Ban mining in probable arrival from China, but this will not go to alter the movement but only speed it up.

We keep 6k area under consideration, which besides being a psychologically strong area, is an area of ​​very strong pressures (sell/buy), and as always in a trade we have only two possibilities, go long or go short. So what to do?

In my opinion we have 3 possible scenarios, 1 of a reversal occurred and 2 of a Bearish Trend recovery. I announce immediately that in my opinion the Bearish Trend is far from over, indeed, it iswe will still have quite a bit.

Possible scenarios
1) BTC exceeds 6k with strength and volume and the FOMO starts
2) BTC tries a 6k test, we pass the 6k and the Fomo starts, but it's a False Breakout
3) BTC tries a timid test of the maximum ($ 5870) and reverses

I personally would totally exclude scenario 1) (more than 6k and fomo) for many reasons that I have already explained several times in the past and that I don't want to repeat.
The most probable are, in my opinion, scenario 2) and 3), with higher probabilities for scenario 2).

An attempt to break 6k would unleash the FOMO of the little ones, because that area is psychologically very strong in people, but at the same time it is an area where the shorters and long trade longhers have their orders waiting to unleash the sell. In my last trade I was talking about this "risk" of triggering a FOMO without a real technical response, here we are, in part, already entered this "mode".


In conclusion, my operational strategy will be to place the short stiles, then more short orders, in an area between $5870 and $6345, with a very first target in the area 4172/4046, where I will eventually be able to lighten the positions (even if this is premature now, so I'll go back to doing the analysis later before setting up any sells).


Following the chart.

https://i.imgur.com/xmqkgwX.png

[Bitcotalk]

I see that many hodlers are expecting price bull anytime now but I suspect that we are still in bear areas. I'm seeing the hammer candles though for reversal but still expecting more drop around $3650 - 3600.

As much as I want the bull right now, something still tells me that there is not going to be a Bull run any time soon. But maybe there is going to be a Bull before the end of this year or maybe in 2020 like some analysts once said. Anyone placing their hopes on the bull run should better stop and look for another solution.

[CryptoReggae]

BTC Long Term Analisys - 05-05-2019 by CryptoReggae


I try to update my long-term analysis,
since the last real analysis was made by me on March 15th with a target of 5.1k (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5115951.msg50171268#msg50171268), but then in practice by me moved to $5215 and closed there. From $5215 touched on April 3rd I closed all LONG positions.

After a very long ride that began at the February low, we reached the new highs of the year touched yesterday, 4 May 2019.
The climb, although I expected, was in my opinion very "supported", almost forced, with volumes not worthy of such a climb, as if to close the swing in advance.
The bullish push we can imagine that very soon it will be exhausted, a matter of hours / days.

What to expect in the coming weeks/months?
We are in the SWING area, or the strength of the bulls is at its peak. The inversion area is between $5780/$6345 (Bitstamp value, Kraken, NO USDT).
We could expect an acceleration of the events, in particular driven by the expected news of Bitfinex and the possible Ban mining in probable arrival from China, but this will not go to alter the movement but only speed it up.

We keep 6k area under consideration, which besides being a psychologically strong area, is an area of ​​very strong pressures (sell/buy), and as always in a trade we have only two possibilities, go long or go short. So what to do?

In my opinion we have 3 possible scenarios, 1 of a reversal occurred and 2 of a Bearish Trend recovery. I announce immediately that in my opinion the Bearish Trend is far from over, indeed, it iswe will still have quite a bit.

Possible scenarios
1) BTC exceeds 6k with strength and volume and the FOMO starts
2) BTC tries a 6k test, we pass the 6k and the Fomo starts, but it's a False Breakout
3) BTC tries a timid test of the maximum ($ 5870) and reverses

I personally would totally exclude scenario 1) (more than 6k and fomo) for many reasons that I have already explained several times in the past and that I don't want to repeat.
The most probable are, in my opinion, scenario 2) and 3), with higher probabilities for scenario 2).

An attempt to break 6k would unleash the FOMO of the little ones, because that area is psychologically very strong in people, but at the same time it is an area where the shorters and long trade longhers have their orders waiting to unleash the sell. In my last trade I was talking about this "risk" of triggering a FOMO without a real technical response, here we are, in part, already entered this "mode".


In conclusion, my operational strategy will be to place the short stiles, then more short orders, in an area between $5870 and $6345, with a very first target in the area 4172/4046, where I will eventually be able to lighten the positions (even if this is premature now, so I'll go back to doing the analysis later before setting up any sells).


Following the chart.

https://i.imgur.com/xmqkgwX.png

The analysis was invalidated by the break, but personally I am not convinced of this climb.

The 6k were one of the most difficult resistances to break, and it was broken with impressive ease, most likely facilitated by the unfinished Bitfinex / Tether story, where users purchased BTC to exit the platform.

At this point we have to wait for the first real retracement, and from there we will understand if it is a real inversion, or it will be like I fear a false breackout

[adaseb]

BTC Long Term Analisys - 05-05-2019 by CryptoReggae


I try to update my long-term analysis,
since the last real analysis was made by me on March 15th with a target of 5.1k (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5115951.msg50171268#msg50171268), but then in practice by me moved to $5215 and closed there. From $5215 touched on April 3rd I closed all LONG positions.

After a very long ride that began at the February low, we reached the new highs of the year touched yesterday, 4 May 2019.
The climb, although I expected, was in my opinion very "supported", almost forced, with volumes not worthy of such a climb, as if to close the swing in advance.
The bullish push we can imagine that very soon it will be exhausted, a matter of hours / days.

What to expect in the coming weeks/months?
We are in the SWING area, or the strength of the bulls is at its peak. The inversion area is between $5780/$6345 (Bitstamp value, Kraken, NO USDT).
We could expect an acceleration of the events, in particular driven by the expected news of Bitfinex and the possible Ban mining in probable arrival from China, but this will not go to alter the movement but only speed it up.

We keep 6k area under consideration, which besides being a psychologically strong area, is an area of ​​very strong pressures (sell/buy), and as always in a trade we have only two possibilities, go long or go short. So what to do?

In my opinion we have 3 possible scenarios, 1 of a reversal occurred and 2 of a Bearish Trend recovery. I announce immediately that in my opinion the Bearish Trend is far from over, indeed, it iswe will still have quite a bit.

Possible scenarios
1) BTC exceeds 6k with strength and volume and the FOMO starts
2) BTC tries a 6k test, we pass the 6k and the Fomo starts, but it's a False Breakout
3) BTC tries a timid test of the maximum ($ 5870) and reverses

I personally would totally exclude scenario 1) (more than 6k and fomo) for many reasons that I have already explained several times in the past and that I don't want to repeat.
The most probable are, in my opinion, scenario 2) and 3), with higher probabilities for scenario 2).

An attempt to break 6k would unleash the FOMO of the little ones, because that area is psychologically very strong in people, but at the same time it is an area where the shorters and long trade longhers have their orders waiting to unleash the sell. In my last trade I was talking about this "risk" of triggering a FOMO without a real technical response, here we are, in part, already entered this "mode".


In conclusion, my operational strategy will be to place the short stiles, then more short orders, in an area between $5870 and $6345, with a very first target in the area 4172/4046, where I will eventually be able to lighten the positions (even if this is premature now, so I'll go back to doing the analysis later before setting up any sells).


Following the chart.

https://i.imgur.com/xmqkgwX.png

The analysis was invalidated by the break, but personally I am not convinced of this climb.

The 6k were one of the most difficult resistances to break, and it was broken with impressive ease, most likely facilitated by the unfinished Bitfinex / Tether story, where users purchased BTC to exit the platform.

At this point we have to wait for the first real retracement, and from there we will understand if it is a real inversion, or it will be like I fear a false breackout

I don't think Bitfinex would have enough market share to be able to make the price rise from like $5000 to $8000. This might of been possible with MtGox because it was pretty much the only exchange but Bitfinex lost alot of its volume from the 2017 days.

I think its just a continuation of the April 1st pump which was before all this Bitfinex fud.

I would say that this rally maybe up to $7000 area was driven by bears which were short covering. I think many of them shorted the $6000 area and it was proved by the funding rate and open interest that many bears shorted that area, and when we broke $7000 most of them just took the loss and covered.