Doubt the tested support at 6.4k will hold forever

[Bossian]

Feb 28, 2020 BTC / USD 8642,63




Hi guys, hi girls.

When it comes to Bitcoin price, the trend is pretty clear since December 2017. We had a high at 19.5k followed by a lower high at 13.7k in July 2019, followed by another lower high at 10.5k in February 2020.

What saved us in December 2019 was the strong 6.4k support, but will it hold forever?

A possibility would be to see a very stable year between 6.4k and 10.5k, but another possibility would be to break below the 6.4k support. After all, we saw in 2018 that this support wasn't strong enough to counter a clear downtrend. And unfortunately the market is bearish right now, so I am afraid we will see 6k this year, probably 5k as well.

Next major supports are 3.5k and 1k. The latter is unlikely to be seen again, the former who knows?

Likely next move (IMO): back down to 7.5k area, then 6.5k area. Price rebounding several times just like we saw late in 2019, but not enough power to see 10.5k again for this year. That's why I believe breaking below 6.5k is pretty likely within a few months.

Good news for those who want cheaper coins! (this is my opinion and not financial advice)




PS: forget about the halving, the herd thinks it will boost Bitcoin price, the herd is usually wrong.

[dragonvslinux]

A possibility would be to see a very stable year between 6.4k and 10.5k, but another possibility would be to break below the 6.4k support. After all, we saw in 2018 that this support wasn't strong enough to counter a clear downtrend. And unfortunately the market is bearish right now, so I am afraid we will see 6k this year, probably 5k as well.

It's true, this is totally possible, I see the possibility of price consolidating between $6.4-10.5K, without the post-halving moonshot scenario this year. The difference this year than in 2018 however is that Bitcoin made a macro sized descending triangle (with lower highs). While I agree that $14K and $10.5K is lower highs, by reaching $10.5K again and creating and short-term bearish double top, we have infact negated the bearish scenario of macro lower highs (that suggests lower lows). Not forgetting bullish indicators such as moving averages that are now suggesting we are in a long-term uptrend, even if the shorter or medium term picture is looking bearish.

The double top suggests the worst case scenario is most likely a double bottom, as opposed to lower lows in order to form/continue the parallel channel of $6.5-$10.5K, similar to 2012 as referenced last year. In summary: lower highs suggesting lower lows, whereas a double top suggests a double bottom. But these patterns are subjective to whether the picture looks bullish or bearish:

Next major supports are 3.5k and 1k. The latter is unlikely to be seen again, the former who knows?

I disagree strongly on this point however. The 200 Week MA has held the price in 2015 and 2019 which is around $5.5K at the moment - only $900 below $6.4K now. It will be around $6K by the time of the halving with it's current trajectory, that would also likely negate a drop below $6K after the halving. Therefore, this drop below $6.4K would need to happen prior to it imo, in order to drop below $6K. I think this is unlikely.

Likely next move (IMO): back down to 7.5k area, then 6.5k area. Price rebounding several times just like we saw late in 2019, but not enough power to see 10.5k again for this year. That's why I believe breaking below 6.5k is pretty likely within a few months.

Personally I see $8.5K as strong support with the 0.5 fib retracements confluence, as well as $8.2K volume support:

Good news for those who want cheaper coins! (this is my opinion and not financial advice)

This is always true. Despite my bullish "permabull" based bias, I would like to see prices return to $6.5K to buy cheap Bitcoin again 

[El duderino_]

PS: forget about the halving, the herd thinks it will boost Bitcoin price, the herd is usually wrong.

The less as 1% thats already in BTC... a portion of them probably think of a boost indeed, another portion of them thinking not or 0-event...

Still the herd is the 99% that isn't involved in BTC, and yes that herd thinking its a NON-event they even still not convinced about BTC, so yes please be right and the herd be wrong!

Cheers

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Many said the halving was priced in last time & we did a x 20 price increase. Maybe we don’t see that kind of % increase this time but no way is the halving priced in.

Bitcoin is more mainstream than when the last cycle began, there are more platforms to trade on, people are more aware of bitcoin, it’s easier to buy.

I’m almost certain we’ll see a 5 to 10 x price increase before 2022.

Cut the supply in half = BTC more scarce & more in demand = price increase

[Febo]

What saved us in December 2019 was the strong 6.4k support, but will it hold forever?

If corona virus trigger recession and recession make Dow Jones fall under 15000 points, we will see fro sure sub $6400 Bitcoin.  How strong trigger will corona virus be, we will see this month.

[STT]

You are characterising the recent pricing as being in line with the decline from ATH.  However there is a far better pattern that already played out and the 2019 high broke that trend, we already went through the scenario you are outlining and to rise from 3k this time last year has already refuted that old trend.    At worst now we revisit that old trend to check if that trend line holds weight or not but its not happened so far.
   It doesnt especially fit from what I see, lets first observe it failing to keep the rising lows since Dec 2018.  If that fails, we got some greater negative on that wider view you refer to.

[Bossian]

What saved us in December 2019 was the strong 6.4k support, but will it hold forever?

If corona virus trigger recession and recession make Dow Jones fall under 15000 points, we will see fro sure sub $6400 Bitcoin.  How strong trigger will corona virus be, we will see this month.

The Covid19 is not affecting Bitcoin price though, otherwise  we shouldn't have seen any bullish run towards 10.5k, don't forget that the media started to broadcast about the virus in January, yet February was a great month for Bitcoin with a peak at 10.5k.

Coincidentally (so to speak, it was not a coincidence), 10.5k is a major resistance, failing to break above always meant we would visit below 8k again.

Downtrend still intact. Next: 7.5k, then 7.2k and more painful will be breaking below 6.4k

You are characterising the recent pricing as being in line with the decline from ATH.  However there is a far better pattern that already played out and the 2019 high broke that trend, we already went through the scenario you are outlining and to rise from 3k this time last year has already refuted that old trend.    At worst now we revisit that old trend to check if that trend line holds weight or not but its not happened so far.
   It doesnt especially fit from what I see, lets first observe it failing to keep the rising lows since Dec 2018.  If that fails, we got some greater negative on that wider view you refer to.

To be perfectly honest with you my friend, I didn't understand your post.

[target]

$6400 is a strong support and it may have to bounce up first before breaking that support but that is if corona will widely spread. Since many countries aren't prepared for such crisis, it may actually break. There are doubts to this though, I might consider the market being oversold already when it goes $6400 and the tendency to spike plus the halving effect may just continue.

[fabiorem]

How long will this bear market last? Its 26 months already.
Its the longest bear market in bitcoin's history.

[exstasie]

The Covid19 is not affecting Bitcoin price though, otherwise  we shouldn't have seen any bullish run towards 10.5k, don't forget that the media started to broadcast about the virus in January, yet February was a great month for Bitcoin with a peak at 10.5k.

It was a great month for stocks too. The S&P 500 made a new ATH on February 20th (BTC actually peaked 1 week earlier), then the corona virus-fueled crash happened. Given the strong bearish momentum in both markets for the past 2 weeks, I wouldn't assume no effect.

Coincidentally (so to speak, it was not a coincidence), 10.5k is a major resistance, failing to break above always meant we would visit below 8k again.

Downtrend still intact. Next: 7.5k, then 7.2k and more painful will be breaking below 6.4k

I always assumed a sizeable correction was likely from the $10K+ area. I still stand by the opinion that revisiting the upper $7,000s could just be a typical retracement in a bull market:

Returning to $8K seems like an arbitrary measure. It could just be a retracement in a bull market, like this:

How long will this bear market last? Its 26 months already.
Its the longest bear market in bitcoin's history.

Measured how? 2014-2015 looks longer to me.

[Leon83]

How long will this bear market last? Its 26 months already.
Its the longest bear market in bitcoin's history.

Bitcoin is still 153% up from the bottom at $3200 though. Back in 2015/2016 it took 500 days to sustain 153% gains.

[milewilda]

$6400 is a strong support and it may have to bounce up first before breaking that support but that is if corona will widely spread. Since many countries aren't prepared for such crisis, it may actually break. There are doubts to this though, I might consider the market being oversold already when it goes $6400 and the tendency to spike plus the halving effect may just continue.

Same perceptions and there would always things that can really be tagged on with the market.We havent expected for the price to touch 7k levels once again.
6.4k support would be a good hold but hopefully we wont go that low, if it happens then this would be a good spot for accumulation,readying up for
halving pump.

How long will this bear market last? Its 26 months already.
Its the longest bear market in bitcoin's history.

No one knows, when bitcoins price touches 5 digits few months before, we did already have the positive boost up
but now the market goes to the opposite direction.Market is always been unpredictable.

[btc_angela]

Let's see $7500 and $7200 support, currently we are below $8k threshold, so it will be interesting how far this downtrend can go and if we are going to test $6400 support and see if it will also not going to hold because of the selling pressure.

Market is bleeding with an average of -10%, specially the top 10 coins.

[exstasie]

currently we are below $8k threshold, so it will be interesting how far this downtrend can go and if we are going to test $6400 support and see if it will also not going to hold because of the selling pressure.

There are some important support levels between here and $6,400.



There are 3 things to pay attention to on this chart. Most importantly, we have the December 2019 pivot at $7,693. This monthly resistance was broken to the upside in January. Let's test the idea that "resistance becomes support."

Next, the market has now reached the 0.705 retracement of the December-February bull market. Old school crypto traders are probably familiar with ICT and Brian Beamish and their use of the "Optimal Trade Entry" zone. This is the 0.618 - 0.786 Fibonacci retracement zone. The 0.705 is often a sweet spot for price reversals, so I'm looking for a reaction off this area.

I don't normally track the 60-week MA, but it's very interesting to see how price reacted with it in November-December last year. It provided support 4 times on the weekly chart before the January uptrend began. The market has just now tagged it again.

[Bossian]

The 6.4k support didn't hold today, this was surprising to say the least.

However, I am not sure we can make any conclusion yet. This was more the wig going below rather than the candle. In a few hours the situation will be clearer.

If tomorrow we are below 6.4k, BTC is cooked for the year folks