A possibility would be to see a very stable year between 6.4k and 10.5k, but another possibility would be to break below the 6.4k support. After all, we saw in 2018 that this support wasn't strong enough to counter a clear downtrend. And unfortunately the market is bearish right now, so I am afraid we will see 6k this year, probably 5k as well.
It's true, this is totally possible, I see the possibility of price consolidating between $6.4-10.5K, without the post-halving moonshot scenario this year. The difference this year than in 2018 however is that Bitcoin made a macro sized descending triangle (with lower highs). While I agree that $14K and $10.5K is lower highs, by reaching $10.5K again and creating and short-term bearish double top, we have infact negated the bearish scenario of macro lower highs (that suggests lower lows). Not forgetting bullish indicators such as moving averages that are now suggesting we are in a long-term uptrend, even if the shorter or medium term picture is looking bearish.
The double top suggests the worst case scenario is most likely a double bottom, as opposed to lower lows in order to form/continue the parallel channel of $6.5-$10.5K, similar to 2012 as referenced last year. In summary: lower highs suggesting lower lows, whereas a double top suggests a double bottom. But these patterns are subjective to whether the picture looks bullish or bearish:
Next major supports are 3.5k and 1k. The latter is unlikely to be seen again, the former who knows?
I disagree strongly on this point however. The 200 Week MA has held the price in 2015 and 2019 which is around $5.5K at the moment - only $900 below $6.4K now. It will be around $6K by the time of the halving with it's current trajectory, that would also likely negate a drop below $6K after the halving. Therefore, this drop below $6.4K would need to happen prior to it imo, in order to drop below $6K. I think this is unlikely.
Likely next move (IMO): back down to 7.5k area, then 6.5k area. Price rebounding several times just like we saw late in 2019, but not enough power to see 10.5k again for this year. That's why I believe breaking below 6.5k is pretty likely within a few months.
Personally I see $8.5K as strong support with the
0.5 fib retracements confluence, as well as
$8.2K volume support:
Good news for those who want cheaper coins! (this is my opinion and not financial advice)
This is always true. Despite my bullish "permabull" based bias, I would like to see prices return to $6.5K to buy cheap Bitcoin again
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