Hash Ribbons buy signal last week (13/08)

[dragonvslinux]

So it's that time again, another Hash Ribbons buy signal, the third in as many years. For more info on this indicator click here.

The capitulation a month prior at $30.3K didn't amount to much price or miner capitulation, with only around -3% price correction prior to the buy signal last week at $29.4K.



Recent buy signals:

January 2023: $20,882 ✅
August 2021 $43,284 ❌
December 2020: $19,378 ✅
July 2020: $9,306 ✅
April 2020: $7,704 ✅

(Ticks and crosses represent good/bad signals)

My interpretation:

As you can see, it's far from as reliable as it has been in the past with signals in August 2021 as well as December 2019 that although at first saw price appreciate by around 50%, it was followed by a significant drop below the buy signal price of around 40-60%.  Nonetheless this is the 14th buy signal on the weekly time-frame in the past 12 years, or otherwise the 11th in the same period on the monthly time-frame.

However, it is has been the case in all previous 13 buy signals that price has either initially increased by 50%+, or otherwise consolidated sideways prior to considerably higher increase (3-9x in recent years).

So despite the bullish price momentum subsiding, and price threatening to re-test the lows again, there remains some fundamentally strong aspects regarding the network atm. It's also worth noting that this signal doesn't often lead to immediate bullish price action. More often than not there are still weeks/months left of consolidation prior to a move to the upside, as this is usually a very "early" indicator of bullishness.

Previous Hash Ribbons topics:

Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Buy Signal 19/08 (2022)
Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Capitulation Alert! (2022)
Bitcoin Hash Ribbon Update - Capitulation Again? (2022)
Hash Ribbons Buy Signals 2016-2020 Extrapolation (2020)
Hash Ribbons Indicator confirms 10th buy signal in 9 years @ $7245 (2019)

[fzkto]

This indicator has been very good at showing buy signals, but this may not have a fast action. That is, it may be too early to buy now and there may be a price drop. But after that in the mid term we can expect further growth. I would not be in a hurry to buy now, but the signal is definitely positive.

[Odohu]

This indicator has been very good at showing buy signals, but this may not have a fast action. That is, it may be too early to buy now and there may be a price drop. But after that in the mid term we can expect further growth. I would not be in a hurry to buy now, but the signal is definitely positive.

I think I agree with you on this as captured in a thread I just made here . I gave two case scenarios: a drop to the $26k region and a rally from the zone it is. However, I am in favour of the later but not almost immediately as there is no fundamental yet to sustain a surge in price.

[bbc.reporter]

It appears bitcoin and the US stock market has reached a stage where they have presently become very loosely correlated. While the natives of the cryptospace are preparing for the bull market, there are investors in the stock market who are preparing for a big dump hehehe.

According to a news update being shared in social media, Michael Burry of the Big Short has 93% of his portfolio in options puts.



BREAKING  :

Michael Burry just shorted the market with $1.6B

Bought $890M of $SPY Puts
Bought $740M of $QQQ Puts

This now makes up 93% of his entire portfolio

Source https://twitter.com/burrytracker/status/1691121657526759424?s=12&t=fx2RmsbaS0qNJTJTdpNu2w



Those puts will be 93% of his portfolio only if he decided to exercise them.



After further analysis from the community, we want to clarify the recent Big Short from Burry's 13F filing

The $1.6B of puts represents how much it would cost to exercise those puts

It DOES NOT represent the actual amount Burry spent on them

Source https://twitter.com/burrytracker/status/1691260567510728704?s=12&t=fx2RmsbaS0qNJTJTdpNu2w