[Charts] Hash Ribbons Buy Signals 2016-2020 Extrapolation [New Signal Incoming]

[dragonvslinux]

The buy signal (in blue) has not yet appeared on the Daily time-frame (confirmed!), we are however close to getting our 4th buy signal in so many years after the bullish MA crossover of the Hash Ribbons shorter & longer SMAs (30 & 60) has occurred. See recent buy signals in past 4 years as well as the returns to current June 27th closing price price of $9,010.
Hard not to be feeling slightly bullish right now, pending confirmation.



TradingView, June 28th 2020

Month Year: Price (+% since signal to date), equivalent value to next signal
September 2016: $616 (+1,360%), equivalent value $131,546
January 2019: $3,652 (+146%), equivalent value $22,164
December 2019: $7,245 (+24%), equivalent value $11,172
April 2020: $7,552 (+19%), equivalent value $10,721

2016-2020 Average Growth:
+387% that would equal $34,891

Weekly chart still pending MA crossover (update: confirmed!), monthly chart is still one step behind, not yet green even

   

Logirthmic Curve & Network Growth : $100K in 2021?



TradingView, June 26th 2020. Screenshot: November 17th 2020.

Logirthmic Growth Curve and Bitcoin Network Hash Rate perspective; long-term bullish and very much on track.
Previous cycle extrapolation points to new ATH in March/June 2021, followed by $100K by December 2021.
Ie 6-9 months to new ATH , 12 months to $50K and 18 months until new top around $100K.
Flags & golden bars represent halvings. Buy signals indicate network is continuing to grow.
Buy the growth, long the net

Bearish price actions lacks confluence with bullish hash rate imo, hence no buy signal given yet. Could take some time to get it, but more likely to signal than not eventually. On the Daily time-frame at least, this signals has always confirmed after hash rate recovery usually within a few days days. The exceptions to the rule was after the second halving in 2016, which was delayed by around 10 days, as well as 2015, that took 4 weeks to confirm.

Most notable all 11 buy signals (blue) have appeared within a month of recovery in hash rate (green), followed by making new hash rate ATH within a short number of days. It's hard not to see the obvious nature of the similarities between these halvings, price aside. To me it therefore seems any dips will be well-defended as the next bullish cycle for Bitcoin will be ready.

2012 - First Halving



2016  - Second Halving



2020 - Third Halving

Buy signal confirmed!

Also bare in mind the max downdraw could still be considerable after a buy signal, even if short lived:



You can also add -47% to the downdraw from the December 2019 buy signal...dyor.
Current drawdown so far is only -5%, average is higher than -11% (inc. recent signals).

As an update to this thread, to avoid another, this is how the hash ribbons are currently looking on the Daily chart:



Personally I'm not expecting further capitulation, such as prior and after the halving, more a quick dip before more miners switch back on again.

On Weekly view it already looks like it might be losing downwards momentum:



Most recent buy signals were:
April 2020: $7,552
July 2020: $9,303
November/December 2020: ?

[exstasie]

Hard not to be feeling slightly bullish right now, pending confirmation.

The first example after the 2018 crash gives me pause. It suggests the potential for a longer accumulation range, testing lower supports. If it plays out like that signal, then we would see a significant pullback from here.

[dragonvslinux]

The Monthly close is in confluence with the Daily & Weekly confirming the hash rate recovery (bullish MA crossover of 30 and 60), as expected:

Hard not to be feeling slightly bullish right now, pending confirmation.

The first example after the 2018 crash gives me pause. It suggests the potential for a longer accumulation range, testing lower supports. If it plays out like that signal, then we would see a significant pullback from here.

It's true, while the hash rate recovery is promising, without the buy signal it's not confirmation of continued uptrend (or a "dip to buy" unquestionably) . Don't listen to any youtubers claiming the signal could be "broken" or there's a "bug". It's the uptrend in price that confirms the buy signal - once price is gaining momentum, after hash rate has recovered. As referenced, it could take upto 4 weeks or longer to get this buy signal, as was the case in 2015. There is nothing abnormal about this hash rate recovery, yet.

I'm admittedly not sure of the exact conditions of "positive price action" for this indicator to signal a buy, but I suspect it's a close above the hash recovery price (that was $9,243) or potentially the open at $9,690, or somewhere inbetween. While on shorter time-frames such as the 4hr and Daily, I'm still expecting a bear trap and a re-test of the lows (maybe lower lows), but once price can break through the resistance level of around $9.7K, we could swiftly move higher based on network strength.

Also bare in mind the max downdraw could still be considerable after a buy signal, even if short lived:



You can also add -47% to the downdraw from the December 2019 buy signal...dyor.
Current drawdown so far is only -5%, average is higher than -11% (inc. recent signals).

[dragonvslinux]

Buy signal confirmed on Weekly chart!



The signal confirmed on yesterdays closing candle:



Hash rate 7 day MA at new ATH 

[dragonvslinux]

As an update to this thread, to avoid another, this is how the hash ribbons are currently looking on the Daily chart:



Personally I'm not expecting further capitulation, such as prior and after the halving, more a quick dip before more miners switch back on again.

On Weekly view it already looks like it might be losing downwards momentum:



Most recent buy signals were:
April 2020: $7,552
July 2020: $9,303
November/December 2020: ?

[dragonvslinux]

Personally I'm not expecting further capitulation, such as prior and after the halving, more a quick dip before more miners switch back on again.

On the Daily time-frame, the hash ribbons indicator is signalling the beginning a recovery. While still some way away from a buy signal, it's a promising sign:



It will be interesting to see how hash rate reacts if the price corrects lower, as hash rate could drop further as a result, but otherwise with price remaining bullish it seems likely the hash rate will continue to recover providing a buy signal at some point in the near future.

[dragonvslinux]

Consolidation period incoming? While the miner capitulation had zero effect on price, the recovery in hash rate may still have some influence it seems. This would be a rough estimate of the price consolidation during the "miner recovery" stage, when hash rate increases, before MA crossover provides the buy signal.

[exstasie]

Consolidation period incoming? While the miner capitulation had zero effect on price, the recovery in hash rate may still have some influence it seems. This would be a rough estimate of the price consolidation during the "miner recovery" stage, when hash rate increases, before MA crossover provides the buy signal.

Interested to see how it plays out.

Structurally, I think we're somewhere similar to late 2016 so I wonder how good this data set is, in a predictive sense. In those previous examples (2019 and earlier 2020) a hash rate drop predictably followed a downside price correction. In the latest example, the hash rate dropped during a monumental increase in price.

Interesting contrast, don't you think? What do you make of it, and do you think that changes things?

[LUCKMCFLY]

I like the type of analysis you do there, the model is very similar to the S2F, however PlanB has its different ways of explaining it and has some details, but the trend shown is seen to be in the medium-long term, something favorable Due to world events and if we add that Paypal bought 70% of the recently mined bitcoins it is a good plus for the market in general.

[dragonvslinux]

Consolidation period incoming? While the miner capitulation had zero effect on price, the recovery in hash rate may still have some influence it seems. This would be a rough estimate of the price consolidation during the "miner recovery" stage, when hash rate increases, before MA crossover provides the buy signal.

Structurally, I think we're somewhere similar to late 2016 so I wonder how good this data set is, in a predictive sense. In those previous examples (2019 and earlier 2020) a hash rate drop predictably followed a downside price correction. In the latest example, the hash rate dropped during a monumental increase in price.

Likewise, I compare current prices to around late 2016 $1K, prior to breaking ATH, for obvious reasons. From 2019 & 2020 data however, if you look closer you'll notice that the March miner capitulation rallied the price, the post-havling capitulation caused sideways trading more than anything (from capitulation to recovery at least) and December 2019 was the only time when the price dumped.

Interesting contrast, don't you think? What do you make of it, and do you think that changes things?

Given the three past capitulations price respectively dropped, pumped and went sideways, there isn't much relevance there. However each time price more or less consolidated once the miner recovery began, this is the part I'm paying attention to. Potentially, the slower the miner recovery, the longer the consolidation takes, given the accuracy of the buy signals.

On a side-note, in late 2016 we never had miner capitulation until the 2018 $6K to $3K dump after the post halving capitulation. This doesn't worry me as such, as should only indicate healthy consolidation at worst, but it does make me wonder why this capitulation is happening (while price is rising). In March it was obvious, it was because price had already dumped.



This time it's very different, I have no idea why...