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October 14, 2025, 04:14:54 AM
 #581

Market Fundamental Analysis for October 14, 2025 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention today:

19:20 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell to speak

20:00 EET. GBP - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey to speak

GBPUSD:

On October 14, 2025, the pound has recovered to 1.3330–1.3340, retracing as worries over a tariff flare-up between the US and China eased. The retreat of some safe-haven demand for the dollar and stabilization in global risk appetite supported sterling, while the market closely assesses fresh UK labor data and the government’s autumn fiscal outlook.

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Domestically, wage growth and services inflation remain pivotal. As long as these components stay elevated, expectations for rapid Bank of England easing are limited, which helps prevent deeper GBP declines. At the same time, a better global risk backdrop and renewed interest in European assets create a window for moderate GBP/USD upside.

The external backdrop is neutral-to-positive: reduced tariff tension and the absence of unexpectedly restrictive signals from the Federal Reserve encourage the market to probe higher levels in the pair. Under these conditions, an upside scenario looks preferable with careful risk control.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3335, SL 1.3315, TP 1.3395

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October 15, 2025, 07:20:03 AM
 #582

Market Fundamental Analysis for October 15, 2025 USDJPY

Event to pay attention today:

15:30 EET. USD - Empire Manufacturing Index

USDJPY:

The yen is strengthening on Wednesday, 15 October 2025, as the dollar loses support amid expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut. Heightened US–China trade frictions lift demand for defensive assets, including the yen, pulling the pair lower from the 152.00 area. Periodic risk-off episodes during the Asian session add to corrective pressure on the dollar versus the yen.

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On a medium-term basis, Japan’s fundamentals are gradually improving: international institutions have raised growth estimates for 2025, and the scenario of cautious Bank of Japan normalization alongside persistent inflation remains in place. Even gradual policy adjustment by the BoJ—against potential easing in the US—narrows the rate differential and caps USD/JPY upside.

Another constraint for the pair is the market’s sensitivity to the possibility of Japanese authorities stepping in during abrupt currency swings. Taken together, these factors form a constructive setup for a tactical short in USD/JPY with a balanced risk-to-reward and clearly defined management levels.

Trading recommendation: SELL 151.50, SL 152.00, TP 150.50

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October 15, 2025, 04:54:24 PM
 #583

The gold market is booming: is $5,000 the target on the horizon?

Gold soared to $4,179 per ounce, a new record high. The market is being fueled by expectations of lower interest rates in the US, a weak dollar, metal purchases by central banks, and inflows into funds. Geopolitical risks are adding a “protection premium,” pushing investors toward safe-haven assets.

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5 factors that could push the price of gold even higher:

  • Central banks continue to buy actively, especially the People's Bank of China — steady “strong” demand.
  • The market is waiting for the Fed to ease its policy: lower interest rates make gold more attractive.
  • Record inflows into funds investing in physical gold (according to WGC data).
  • US-China geopolitical tensions are driving defensive buying.
  • A weak dollar and growing private demand are supporting gold's status as a “safe haven.”

The story above $4,100 is just beginning: gold is accelerating, Q4 2025 promises profits for active clients, and FreshForex analysts see the peak surge in 2026. According to Bank of America estimates, gold could reach $5,000 in 2026.

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October 16, 2025, 05:44:10 AM
 #584

Market Fundamental Analysis for October 16, 2025 EURUSD

EURUSD

The euro is strengthening against the dollar and holding above 1.16 amid USD weakness driven by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and ongoing U.S.–China trade frictions. The dollar index is correcting lower, and the 10-year Treasury yield is fluctuating around 4.0–4.1%, which reduces the dollar’s appeal as a defensive asset and supports the euro. An additional factor has been the softer tone from some Fed officials regarding the policy path amid signs of a slowdown in the U.S. economy.

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In the euro area, the preliminary inflation estimate for September showed an acceleration of the annual rate to 2.2% y/y, which continues to bring readings closer to the target but does not resolve the question of the pace of subsequent ECB decisions. Markets assume that the difference in the speed of easing between the Fed and the ECB may remain in the euro’s favor in the near term, as the probability of a U.S. rate cut by year-end is considered high, while in the eurozone the regulator prefers a gradual approach without rushed steps.

Risks for the euro are linked to the dynamics of U.S. Treasury yields, headlines on trade negotiations, and the EU energy market. However, given the current balance of factors, the advantage lies with the European currency: a weaker dollar, relatively stable inflation expectations in the euro area, and an improvement in risk appetite.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1665, SL 1.1615, TP 1.1715

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October 17, 2025, 04:13:59 AM
 #585

Market Fundamental Analysis for October 17, 2025 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

The pound trades above 1.34, responding to broad US dollar weakness and moderately positive signals from the UK economy. Recent GDP prints point to a slight pickup in activity late in the summer, helping sterling stay at the upper end of the weekly range. On the pound’s side are stable short-term UK gilt yields and a lower risk premium for the dollar. Live quotes confirm a 1.3430–1.3450 range.

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Demand for GBP is also supported by expectations of a cautious stance at the Bank of England: the regulator seeks to keep inflation on a downward path without abrupt moves, while markets gradually price later timing for any potential easing. Meanwhile, the external agenda (US–China trade issues, swings in global equity indices) reduces the dollar’s appeal as a defensive asset, indirectly facilitating sterling’s advance.

The US backdrop adds to GBPUSD’s fundamental case: prolonged budget uncertainty and softer-sounding remarks from some Fed officials reduce the yield advantage in favor of the dollar. This keeps the door open for a move toward 1.35, provided there are no negative surprises from the UK side.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3445, SL 1.3425, TP 1.3515.

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October 20, 2025, 06:17:53 AM
 #586

Market Fundamental Analysis for October 20, 2025 USDJPY

USDJPY:

The dollar–yen pair has stabilized around 150.7, but the fundamental backdrop favors a downward correction. Falling US Treasury yields and persistent expectations of Fed policy easing narrow the rate differential that previously supported USD/JPY. Against this background, demand for the yen as a safe-haven asset tends to increase whenever the dollar shows signs of weakening.

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Japan’s domestic agenda sends mixed signals: cabinet reshuffles and discussion of economic measures provide short-term support to equities, but for the exchange rate the key driver remains the trajectory of US Treasury yields and the risk of investor caution near levels that previously drew attention from financial authorities.

Given recent US rate commentary and the decline in global yields, the base case is a gradual move in USD/JPY toward 149.50, barring new factors that sharply improve the dollar backdrop. Risks to this view include unexpectedly restrictive signals from the US or a renewed rise in yields.

Trade recommendation: SELL 150.70, SL 150.90, TP 149.95

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October 20, 2025, 02:04:53 PM
 #587

Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT  for 20-24 October 2025

XAUUSD: BUY 4255.50, SL 4225.00, TP 4410.00

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Gold starts the new week at elevated levels: the spot price holds near $4,255 per ounce as markets continue to expect further Federal Reserve rate cuts and as long-term U.S. Treasury yields ease. Ongoing central-bank purchases and a recovery in investment demand add support: diversification of reserves and the metal’s protective role remain in focus, while trade and political tensions between the U.S. and China keep interest in safe assets alive.

Key drivers over the week include the tone of Fed remarks and U.S. inflation releases, the direction of bond yields, and news on global gold flows. Risks for long positions are tied to a slower-than-expected pace of policy easing and a firmer dollar, but steady official buying and elevated uncertainty still shape a constructive fundamental backdrop.

Trading recommendation: BUY 4255.50, SL 4225.00, TP 4410.00



#SP500: BUY 6660, SL 6640, TP 6900

U.S. equities begin the week supported by a move in 10-year Treasury yields below 4% and a heavy earnings calendar. Consensus for Q3 profits remains constructive, and investment in AI and related equipment continues to underpin demand for the largest names. By Friday’s close the benchmark hovered around 6,664; futures point to a neutral-to-positive start while investors watch this week’s macro releases.

The balance of factors favors moderate upside: easing financial conditions, stable profit expectations, and no clear signs of a sharp demand slowdown in key sectors. Counter-risks include softness in some cyclicals, occasional stress in credit, and geopolitics. In this setup, buying on modest dips with tight risk control looks reasonable.

Trading recommendation: BUY 6660, SL 6640, TP 6900



#BRENT: SELL 61.00, SL 61.30, TP 55.00

Brent enters the new week near $61 per barrel. The near-term backdrop weighs on prices: agencies and banks flag faster supply growth in 2025–2026, including as OPEC+ curbs gradually unwind and non-OPEC output rises. At the same time, demand forecasts are turning more cautious amid slower global growth and structural trends such as improved efficiency and transport electrification. Trade frictions between the U.S. and China and headlines on U.S. inventories add to buyer caution.

Overall, the supply-demand balance tilts toward surplus, limiting upside unless fresh supply disruptions emerge. Risks to short positions include sudden outages, signals of deeper OPEC+ restraint, or a quicker-than-expected demand rebound in Asia. The base case is continued downward pressure with brief news-driven rebounds.

Trading recommendation: SELL 61.00, SL 61.30, TP 55.00

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October 21, 2025, 08:16:51 AM
 #588

Market Fundamental Analysis for October 21, 2025 EURUSD

Event to pay attention today:

14:00 EET. EUR - ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks

EURUSD

EUR/USD in early European trading on 21 October moves in a narrow 1.16–1.17 range as participants await US releases and signals around the budget impasse. With parts of the federal government suspended, several agencies have already pared back functions, delaying some statistics and lifting overall uncertainty. The US dollar remains in demand as a defensive asset while markets assess the timeline for restoring government funding and the path of Federal Reserve rates. This setup maintains moderate pressure on the euro in the near term.

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Across the euro area, fresh estimates confirm September inflation at 2.2% y/y, strengthening the case for the ECB to hold after the easing steps already implemented earlier this year. Minutes from the ECB’s September meeting also reflected a willingness to “keep a steady course” until price dynamics and the impact of fiscal policy in the region’s largest economies become clearer. Stable—but not overheated—inflation limits the scope for strong euro gains without a visible improvement in real yield differentials.

The US calendar remains decisive: anticipation around inflation data and Fed commentary, along with movements in US Treasury yields, shape demand for the dollar. While US real rates hold at comparatively elevated levels, capital flows into the dollar persist. Additional headwinds for the euro come from intermittent intra-European political headlines that can widen the uncertainty premium. In sum, the near-term balance of forces in the pair tilts to the downside.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1635, SL 1.1685, TP 1.1585

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October 21, 2025, 06:46:34 PM
Last edit: October 21, 2025, 08:48:05 PM by FreshForex
 #589

Silver rally: Are you in?

Silver (XAGUSD) just hit a new all-time high, soaring above $53/oz! The surge is driven by a real physical shortage in London (record-low LBMA stocks, spike in lease rates, and COMEX premium), flight to safety amid dovish Fed expectations and gold’s rally, and booming industrial demand from solar energy and electronics. A short squeeze is also underway due to the rising cost of borrowing silver.

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5 key drivers behind the XAGUSD bull run:

  • 1.The market is short on metal – demand consistently outpaces supply.
  • 2.Physical squeeze in London – inventories are depleted, spot trades above COMEX, borrowing costs surge.
  • 3.Industrial super-demand – energy transition fuels silver use in solar, electronics, and EVs.
  • 4.Dovish macro backdrop – Fed rate cuts expected, weaker USD, inflows into safe havens.
  • 5. Capital inflows – silver ETFs and bullion/coin demand picking up momentum.


FreshForex analysts see further upside: the breakout to new highs confirms strong demand for physical silver and sustained investor interest. The rally in gold and robust industrial trends give the silver market breadth and staying power. Q4 2025 offers great potential for active traders, but the strongest move is expected in Q1 2026, as Fed policy loosens and supply remains tight. Don’t wait — fund your account now using promo code TOPUP25 and profit from the silver trend with a 202% drawdown bonus!

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October 22, 2025, 05:11:37 AM
 #590

Market Fundamental Analysis for October 22, 2025 USDJPY

USDJPY:

The yen finds support amid rising market volatility and position trimming ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting on October 29–30. Political changes in Tokyo come with an emphasis on sustained wage growth as a condition for meeting the price objective, increasing market sensitivity to potential tightening signals in the coming months.

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At the same time, expectations of a Fed rate cut at the end of October limit the upside in U.S. Treasury yields and reduce the dollar’s appeal versus the yen. The mere possibility that the BoJ may take further steps toward normalization keeps USDJPY from revisiting yearly highs.

Additional support for the yen comes from improving trade indicators and vigilance over the risk of verbal intervention by Japanese authorities if the currency weakens excessively. The combination of these factors provides a fundamental case for a downward correction in USDJPY.

Trade recommendation: SELL 151.65, SL 152.15, TP 150.90

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October 23, 2025, 04:17:01 AM
 #591

Market Fundamental Analysis for October 23, 2025 EURUSD

Event to pay attention today:

17:00 EET. USD – Existing Home Sales

EURUSD:

The euro is declining against the US dollar amid persistent demand for safe-haven assets and expectations for US inflation data. Investors note that delays in the release of official US macroeconomic data caused by the government shutdown do not resolve the question of the price trajectory: the market is still repricing the timing and scale of monetary easing in the US, which supports the USD. Taken together, this keeps the pair around 1.16 and caps attempts to rise.

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Additional pressure on the euro comes from uneven signals from the euro area’s real sector and the regulator’s cautious tone on growth prospects, while US Treasury yields remain relatively high. In the short term, the risk balance for EURUSD is tilted toward further declines, especially in the absence of positive surprises in US price dynamics and signs of acceleration in the eurozone economy.

In October the euro’s vulnerability to deteriorating global risk sentiment and US news flow was also evident. As of today this remains relevant: the dollar retains an advantage thanks to expectations around Federal Reserve rates and its role as a funding currency, while the euro is exposed to the region’s political-economic risks. Given these inputs, a strategy of selling from round levels looks justified.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1605, SL 1.1625, TP 1.1545

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October 23, 2025, 02:42:51 PM
 #592

October’s top stock performers: #AMD, #Amazon, #Tesla & more

In October, FreshForex clients most frequently traded stocks like #AMD, #Amazon, #GoDaddy, #Tesla, and #Moderna — and these very assets showed the highest share of profitable trades. Capitalize on strong demand momentum and high liquidity: with earnings season and the holiday rush ahead, the “window of opportunity” is still open.

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Outlook through the end of 2025:

#AMD: Shares could rise following the $6B AI compute deal with OpenAI and Oracle’s reported order of 50,000 next-gen MI450 chips.
#Amazon: Strong earnings on October 30, solid AWS growth, advertising contributions, and the fall Prime Big Deal Days may keep the stock bullish.
#GoDaddy: Stock may face pressure if SMB ARPU/inflows slow, plus FX headwinds could dampen August’s raised full-year guidance.
#Tesla: Growth potential supported by record 497K deliveries, 12.5 GWh energy deployments in Q3, and expansion of FSD v14 (Supervised).
#Moderna: Stock remains under pressure amid limited revenue visibility, delayed UK shipments, and postponed approval of its flu+COVID combo vaccine to 2026.

According to FreshForex analysts, the outlook for these stocks remains driven by AI investments and seasonal demand. But the strongest growth impulse is likely in Q1 2026, especially if the Fed eases policy and announced tech projects go live.

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October 24, 2025, 07:12:44 AM
 #593

Market Fundamental Analysis for October 24, 2025 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention today:

11:30 EET. GBP - Composite PMI Index

15:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index

GBPUSD:

Sterling is under pressure after softer-than-expected UK inflation. The easing in price pressures has increased the likelihood of Bank of England policy loosening over the coming meetings, narrowing the yield differential in favor of the dollar. While rate expectations are partly in the price, UK releases still point to cooling household demand.

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The U.S. inflation print is a potential short-term market driver. Given the high sensitivity to real rates, even a neutral U.S. report can keep the dollar supported. If actual price dynamics exceed consensus, demand for funding and risk assets may be capped, reinforcing pressure on the pound.

The UK policy and economic backdrop remains mixed: budget priorities and household spending face a slowing economy, while the external environment for exports is soft. Altogether this argues for a cautious view on sterling and supports a sell-on-rallies approach in the near term.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3325, SL 1.3375, TP 1.3225

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October 27, 2025, 05:58:46 AM
 #594

Market Fundamental Analysis for October 27, 2025 USDJPY

USDJPY:

USD/JPY holds near multi-week highs thanks to the yield differential and a cautious tone among investors before the FOMC meeting. Elevated nominal and real US yields, alongside restrained monetary conditions in Japan, keep a positive differential in favor of the dollar and support buying interest in the pair.

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On the domestic side for Japan, the market still expects very low funding costs in the near term and a gradual approach to any future changes by the Bank of Japan. Given modest domestic demand and uneven price dynamics, JGB yields remain contained, leaving the yen with few sustained drivers for appreciation.

External factors also favor the dollar: persistent inflows into US instruments amid global uncertainty underpin the trend. Proximity to areas that may trigger comments from Japanese authorities calls for careful risk management, but fundamentally there are still limited preconditions for a meaningful softening of the USD against the JPY.

Trading recommendation: BUY 152.90, SL 152.25, TP 153.90

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October 27, 2025, 05:49:26 PM
Last edit: October 27, 2025, 07:01:55 PM by FreshForex
 #595

Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT  for 27-31 October 2025

XAUUSD: BUY 4075.00, SL 4025.00, TP 4225.00

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Gold starts the week near record territory, with spot prices fluctuating around $4,080 per ounce. Support comes from expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the October 28–29 meeting and the recent pullback in U.S. Treasury yields ahead of the decision. Headlines about a potential temporary government funding pause in the U.S. and delayed data releases enhance gold’s role as a defensive asset, while September inflation came in slightly below expectations, reinforcing the case for policy easing. In addition, fund inflows into gold have stayed strong after October’s price spike.

The fundamental backdrop remains constructive: World Gold Council data point to renewed net purchases by central banks late in the summer, and October saw more active investment flows into “paper” gold as market volatility rose and real yields eased. Risks to this view include a more cautious Fed tone and a brief dollar rebound after the decision, but these are offset by steady institutional demand and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Trade idea: BUY 4075.00, SL 4025.00, TP 4225.00


#SP500: BUY 6785, SL 6705, TP 7025​

U.S. equities enter the week on strong footing: the S&P 500 holds near 6,790 after softer September inflation data and lower government bond yields. Markets are focused on the Fed’s October 28–29 decision; the prevailing view anticipates another rate cut, which would reduce borrowing costs and support the valuation of future earnings. The reporting season is in full swing, with expectations for double-digit earnings growth for 2025 and a busy week of results from index constituents.

Fundamentally, the index benefits from a combination of easing rate pressure, resilient profit expectations in sectors tied to digital infrastructure and AI-related investment, and a broadly steady consumer backdrop. Key risks include any prolonged disruption to federal services that could distort the macro data flow, and the chance of tighter corporate guidance given currency strength and fluctuations in global electronics demand.

Trade idea: BUY 6785, SL 6705, TP 7025


#BRENT: SELL 66.30, SL 68.00, TP 61.20​

Brent trades around $66 per barrel. The weekly news flow is mixed: on one hand, infrastructure risks linger in the Black and Baltic Sea regions; on the other, international agencies flag accelerating supply growth alongside moderate demand. The earlier OPEC+ decision to allow a marginal output increase and revised surplus projections effectively cap prices despite sporadic supply disruptions and sanctions-related headlines.

By late October, industry assessments imply a gradual rebuild in inventories and a softer price path into Q4, albeit with elevated headline-driven volatility. Additional pressure comes from a cooler global backdrop and rising non-OPEC+ production, while any Fed rate cut would only partly lift the commodity complex. Short-position risks include an escalation of geopolitical tensions that threatens exports and an unexpectedly sharp draw in weekly U.S. stock data.

Trade idea: SELL 66.30, SL 68.00, TP 61.20

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October 28, 2025, 06:00:47 AM
 #596

Market Fundamental Analysis for October 28, 2025 EURUSD

EURUSD:

EUR/USD is supported by expectations ahead of this week’s FOMC decision: fresh September inflation data in the United States came in moderate, reinforcing the scenario of rate cuts and a softer dollar as price pressures normalize. At the same time, the euro area’s central bank communication remains cautious but without signs of emergency tightening, which eases pressure on business activity and supports risk appetite.

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Demand for the euro is also strengthened by improved global risk sentiment and stable U.S. Treasury yields: growing interest in equities and commodities typically reduces the need for the dollar as a defensive asset. This week, markets focus on the Fed’s comments about the policy path into year-end and early 2026: a gentler tone increases the probability of a weaker dollar and continued EURUSD upside.

For the short-term fundamental setup, it is notable that U.S. risks (slowing inflation, debate over fiscal constraints) weigh on yields, while Europe faces no new energy-price shocks. In this configuration, the balance of factors tilts toward moderate euro appreciation against the dollar unless the Fed signals a stricter stance on rates and balance sheet.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1665, SL 1.1635, TP 1.1710

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October 28, 2025, 01:59:47 PM
 #597

Nikkei surges higher: What’s powering the market now

#NIKKEI has soared above 50,000. The rally is fueled by a mix of political momentum following Sanae Takaichi’s arrival, the predictably dovish stance of the Bank of Japan, a weak yen benefiting exporters, accelerating corporate reforms, and a revival in tourism and domestic demand — all pushing profit expectations and valuations to record highs.

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Key drivers of further #NIKKEI growth:
  • Weak yen + dovish BoJ: Exporters earn more when converting foreign revenue into yen; cheap credit keeps valuations and multiples strong.
  • AI and semiconductor investment cycle: Japan is expanding chip fabs, while local suppliers of materials and equipment enjoy long-term contracts and steady cash flow.
  • Corporate reforms & buybacks: Companies are selling off non-core assets, boosting efficiency, and buying back shares — lifting EPS and investor confidence.
  • Tourism & services boom: Japan is affordable for travelers, spending is up, and hotels, retailers, restaurants, and transport firms are reporting record revenues.
  • Rising wages & consumption: Households have more disposable income; businesses raise prices moderately, margins stay solid, and revenues grow steadily across sectors.
#NIKKEI’s growth isn’t only about the weak yen. FreshForex analysts believe political reform momentum, loose monetary policy, renewed chip demand, disciplined corporate management, and a robust services/tourism sector are key supports. The base scenario: the uptrend could extend through 2025–2026, though risks include a sharp yen rebound or political delays.

Trade the trend with leverage up to 1:2000 and over 250+ instruments on FreshForex — start earning on the Nikkei’s rise today.

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October 29, 2025, 07:12:09 AM
 #598

Market Fundamental Analysis for October 29, 2025 GBPUSD

Event to watch today:

20:00 EET. USD - FOMC decision on the key interest rate

GBPUSD:


Sterling softens against the dollar ahead of the Fed decision as some investors take profit after recent attempts to rally. The U.S. market still anticipates a 25 bps rate cut, but the dollar’s intraday recovery into the meeting weighs on GBPUSD.

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Domestic drivers for the pound are mixed. Recent UK inflation data came in softer than forecast, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England will approach policy with greater caution and limiting GBP upside. Budget and borrowing headlines earlier in the year also added volatility, keeping the pair around 1.33 and below at times.

Also yesterday, the prevailing assessment was that the GBP/USD upside momentum was unstable and largely dependent on external drivers—the US dollar exchange rate and expectations for further Fed easing. Under these conditions, selling on a rise toward 1.3275, with an eye on a return to 1.3200, should the Fed remain neutral or moderately cautious, makes strategic sense.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.3265, SL 1.3285, TP 1.3200

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October 30, 2025, 06:20:45 AM
 #599

Market Fundamental Analysis for October 30, 2025 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

08:30 EET. JPY - BOJ Press Conference

USDJPY:

The yen weakened after the Bank of Japan kept its policy rate near 0.50% today, again declining to back proposals from some members for a move to 0.75%. The statement keeps future steps “in view” but offers no timeline, reinforcing the yield differential in favor of the United States and supporting USD/JPY near the top of its recent range.

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An additional impulse for USD comes from the Fed: while it delivered a 25 bps cut, Chair Powell stressed that subsequent actions are not predetermined. For USDJPY, what matters is not the single rate print but expectations for U.S. Treasury yields and risk appetite. Yields along the curve remain relatively high, and the Fed’s readiness to pause points to a slower easing cycle, which supports the dollar against the yen.

External factors round out the picture: moderately positive global risk sentiment and the absence of strong signals from Japan’s Ministry of Finance about interventions. Given the current monetary-policy trajectories in the U.S. and Japan, upward attempts in USDJPY persist while pullbacks look contained.

Trading recommendation: BUY 152.75, SL 152.10, TP 153.50

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October 31, 2025, 05:29:52 AM
 #600

Market Fundamental Analysis for October 31, 2025 EURUSD

EURUSD:

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1570–1.1580 after this week’s major central-bank decisions. On October 29, the Fed cut the policy rate by 0.25 pp while indicating that further easing in December is not guaranteed and announcing an end to balance-sheet reduction from December 1. This combination of a cautious tone and the halt to “tightening via the balance sheet” was largely priced in and failed to deliver durable support to risk currencies, while U.S. Treasury yields remain relatively elevated. That backdrop sustains demand for the dollar and caps euro rebounds.

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For the euro, the lack of fresh stimulus from the ECB is a key factor: on October 30 the central bank left its rate unchanged, and recent surveys and business-activity indicators point to a gradual recovery rather than an acceleration strong enough to flip the rate differential with the U.S. in the euro’s favor. As a result, the near-term fundamental balance for the pair is tilted toward moderate downside.

Additional risks in global trade and tariff uncertainty support defensive demand for the dollar. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation indicators (PCE) are broadly in line with expectations, keeping the debate alive about a pause after the Fed’s October move. Together these inputs favor a pullback in EURUSD from current levels.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1575, SL 1.1625, TP 1.1500

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