Polymarket bets of Trump's promises and other politics

[blockman]

Who will know, there are still remaining days for Biden and we have no idea what's on his mind. Maybe he'll leave a legacy like that or will be of good help for SBF with that debt in gratitude he has for him. So, there are those who probably are thinking like that if Biden has got some thoughts on his mind to do it.

I doubt that even if he is not in the right frame of mind, he will just pardon SBF. As said, we haven't seen it before and so Biden and his political party doesn't want to do it as the American people will scorn them if ever they do.

So as far as betting goes, I will not put a penny on it, a long shot and chance are very slim.

In any case, I will still go back to where I might have a good chance to win which is sport betting and not on politics.

Yup, there are so much for the Biden administration to do and he can just let this slide and pass on the torch to Trump to decide. So, if someone has got some spare money and they think that Biden won't pardon it, that's why the chance of winning is there that Biden will never give pardon to SBF.

[Saint-loup]

it's even lower now at 28cents. But you shouldn't forget to take the "rules" of the market into account. As far as I understand, we are not taking about an announcement or a bill but an actual reserve with coins being officially held by the USA. So to be honest it doesn't look very likely to happen before end of April. It will take several months at least to be implemented IMO.

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Bitcoin in its reserves at any point between January 20, 2025, ET and April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that the US government confiscating Bitcoin does not count as holding Bitcoin reserves.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

[Botnake]

That prediction works a lot like betting odds in sports, it can be overvalued or undervalued. The key is to find a market where you think you can correctly pick the winner. Now that the market is about Bitcoin, I actually like it because it’s a topic we’ve been discussing here a lot. It means we’ve already come across various opinions that we can consider and use in our analysis, and that is the edge we have over the others.

It’s a difficult to go on with for a bet given that, politics haven’t got any active role in sports betting which clearly this isn’t, neither is it a casino too but we many at times find it in the sportsbook.

Given the high level of probability on these predictions on how Trump is likely going to keep or not keep to his word and promises, taking bets here would be a tough choice. You clearly haven’t got anything to look at rather than give governance what it is and rely on Trump to be true to his word.

I think the biggest difference with Polymarket is that they’re willing to take huge bets, which might not be possible with traditional sportsbooks. On Polymarket, there seems to be no limit, you can bet millions without any KYC checks. In contrast, sportsbooks usually have strict limits, require KYC verification, and might even report large transactions to the Anti-Money Laundering Council. It’s a significant distinction, especially for high-stakes bettors looking for more freedom.

[Jating]

That prediction works a lot like betting odds in sports, it can be overvalued or undervalued. The key is to find a market where you think you can correctly pick the winner. Now that the market is about Bitcoin, I actually like it because it’s a topic we’ve been discussing here a lot. It means we’ve already come across various opinions that we can consider and use in our analysis, and that is the edge we have over the others.

It’s a difficult to go on with for a bet given that, politics haven’t got any active role in sports betting which clearly this isn’t, neither is it a casino too but we many at times find it in the sportsbook.

Given the high level of probability on these predictions on how Trump is likely going to keep or not keep to his word and promises, taking bets here would be a tough choice. You clearly haven’t got anything to look at rather than give governance what it is and rely on Trump to be true to his word.

I think the biggest difference with Polymarket is that they’re willing to take huge bets, which might not be possible with traditional sportsbooks. On Polymarket, there seems to be no limit, you can bet millions without any KYC checks. In contrast, sportsbooks usually have strict limits, require KYC verification, and might even report large transactions to the Anti-Money Laundering Council. It’s a significant distinction, especially for high-stakes bettors looking for more freedom.

Bigger crypto based casinos can also take huge bet as far as I know, that's why there are whales and that is why there are tier rewards or levels in casino. And there are casinos older than Polymarket or at least established in the same year and still these casinos are in the market.

The thing is that Polymarket allegedly is not registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and most likely this is the reason why they are not under scrutiny by the US DOJ. So who knows, they said that the platform has allowed US citizen. Others say it's a political retribution as it predicted Trump to win the election. Or they could be thinking that Polymarket has manipulated and rigged it to make Trump the winner.

[STT]

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Bitcoin in its reserves at any point between January 20, 2025, ET and April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The price might as well be zero then because limiting it so strictly on time is never going to work.  Actually moving capital in that time is unlikely and I doubt any legislation is passed in that time frame for even a theoretical transfer of reserves.

The whole story and belief in something so extreme is the kind of hype that marks a top.   Thats not my general impression of BTC movement but I guess its possible we only gain 50% over the last ATH.   Most people dont expect this kind of resolution to pass, just saying the idea is what garners most of the benefit to politics in that it appears the administration is friendly to crypto while actually doing zero.

Correct time scale would be the full term of the President, not sure why it had to be so rushed because most government progress is glacial.