Polymarket bets of Trump's promises and other politics

[stompix]

I have a feeling that the new hype in gambling is betting on either stupid stuff or politics, with Polymarket gaining more and more attention from bettors keen on trading prediction rather than coins. And so, in order to concentrate the decision on both polymarket and gambling on political events and stuff combined, let's talk here about those, especially since some of the best do include crypto, like betting on the chances of a Bitcoin reserve being done in less than 100 days.

Of course, the hot ones are Trump's promises:
https://polymarket.com/dashboards/trump



Obviously, the weird one is the only 34% chance for the Bitcoin reserve despite the deal being made on a crypto market, so with more bitcoin enthusiasts than normal gambling.

The other interesting market is the one about the US government shutdown:
https://polymarket.com/event/us-government-shutdown-before-2025?tid=1734955582022

And this is where things get tricky, as you will have to rely here on the decision of the team behind polymarket, so was it a shutdown as some newspapers claim, was it not one as others claim since the bill was signed, and the entire drama where basically the decision is taken by unknown strangers and there is little you can do if you're not happy with the outcome.


Is anyone taking bets here, buying options, thinking about giving it a chance or even creating his own market?

[Sanitough]

Those in the market are probably betting on events that are likely to happen, so for me, I see Polymarket more like a source of news where I can check the current trends. I’m not really a bettor on this platform, so I can’t say much about it. But if it continues to grow in popularity and eventually offers better odds for sports betting, it could definitely attract a lot more bettors.

What impresses me, though, is the big volume in each market.. I’ve seen numbers like a million dollars. I’m just curious, does that volume reflect the total money already bet, or is it something else?

[crwth]

It has definitely become popular, and the ability to make your own that interests other people is awesome. It's important to have this, IMO, and since Polymarket is providing it, it's a plus for me to use it. I haven't thought of something worth adding a market for, but if I do, I will.

Maybe other members could create a market with the members of Bitcointalk? Maybe provide the next user who has "Drama" in Bitcointalk? 

[Gozie51]

I don't bet on this platform but if I were and I want to bet on any future occurrence of event be it politics or outcome of a football match or and bitcoin dominance percentage for a certain period for instance, I would first consider the direction of people's opinion and votes already (if there is a way to do that) because with polymarket, it is always the percentage of perception that matters. To be on a safe side on the bet, to check on the percentage of votes is a strong influence.

[Fiatless]

Is anyone taking bets here, buying options, thinking about giving it a chance or even creating his own market?

I don't know how trustworthy the polymaket prediction platform is. There have been accusations that they are engaging in fake wash’trading, however, it has not been proven true. They are also under investigation by The Federal Bureau of Investigation which led to the house of its CEO Shayne Coplan being raided by operatives. Although it might be a politically motivated witch hunt because of its close accuracy in predicting the US elections. I don't have interest in some of the bets they offer, maybe it might change in the future.

[Jawhead999]

Obviously, the weird one is the only 34% chance for the Bitcoin reserve despite the deal being made on a crypto market, so with more bitcoin enthusiasts than normal gambling.

I think it's because Jerome Powell said the FED not want to own Bitcoin, so people are thinking Trump might not able to create Bitcoin reserve because of that.

It's quite surprising many people are believe Trump will pardon Ross Ulbricht, I don't see him talking more about Ross Ulbricht after get won the election.

Those in the market are probably betting on events that are likely to happen

More like to know analysis by average people instead of likely to happen, not all public perception will happen.

[Botnake]

I don't know how trustworthy the polymaket prediction platform is. There have been accusations that they are engaging in fake wash’trading, however, it has not been proven true. They are also under investigation by The Federal Bureau of Investigation which led to the house of its CEO Shayne Coplan being raided by operatives. Although it might be a politically motivated witch hunt because of its close accuracy in predicting the US elections. I don't have interest in some of the bets they offer, maybe it might change in the future.

That prediction works a lot like betting odds in sports, it can be overvalued or undervalued. The key is to find a market where you think you can correctly pick the winner. Now that the market is about Bitcoin, I actually like it because it’s a topic we’ve been discussing here a lot. It means we’ve already come across various opinions that we can consider and use in our analysis, and that is the edge we have over the others.

[Davidvictorson]

This goes to say one thing in my estimation and that is everything and anything can be  up for betting no matter how stupid and silly it sounds. My thoughts on this is that Trump is a pretty popular person and are the people starting these prediction actually Americans? Because to the best of my knowledge unless something has changed, Polymarket bets blocked access to US customers since 2022.  Secondly, if they are Americans, what is the probability that they are not going to in some way influence its outcome?

[Fivestar4everMVP]

This goes to say one thing in my estimation and that is everything and anything can be  up for betting no matter how stupid and silly it sounds. My thoughts on this is that Trump is a pretty popular person and are the people starting these prediction actually Americans? Because to the best of my knowledge unless something has changed, Polymarket bets blocked access to US customers since 2022.  Secondly, if they are Americans, what is the probability that they are not going to in some way influence its outcome?

I doubt Americans aren't betting on polymarket, I mean if they are blocked, those interested among them can easily gain access to the platform through the use of VPN, since like I learnt that other day that the platform is kyc free.

On a platform that Americans are blocked from betting, and yet, over 90 percents of what is being bet on has something to do with America and her citizens, Americans will definitely influence the decisions and outcome of such predictions, since (like I said before), polymarket is said to be kyc free, so if the American use VPN to access the site, there is no way they are getting penalized in any way.
And let's not forget that polymarket was not known, until Elon Musk (an American) started posting screenshots from the platform on his X timeline during the US 2024 presidential election.

[Akbarkoe]

It's getting more and more Polymarket in the availability of gambling bets, this includes the policies that Trump will bring with the US in the future, it's ridiculous what they offer to bettors.

But what they bring up about the policies that will be taken is interesting politically and betting, and I seem to be more and more tempted by political betting in the future, with economic issues and major policies in the US sphere.

[kotajikikox]

Those in the market are probably betting on events that are likely to happen, so for me, I see Polymarket more like a source of news where I can check the current trends.

Is it really the best platform to check for news? A lot of these are only rumors and doesn’t really have any valid basis which is why a lot of people call the bets on polymarket stupid because they are betting on things that may not even actually happen in real life.

But if it continues to grow in popularity and eventually offers better odds for sports betting, it could definitely attract a lot more bettors.

They’d need a good system with sports betting but I would assume that they’ll continue having “stupid” bets even with sports. Probably events that so absurd it won’t even be considered as an official gambling event.

[Betwrong]

~
Of course, the hot ones are Trump's promises:
https://polymarket.com/dashboards/trump


~

Wait, what? More than 50% chance that Trump in his first 100 days will pardon Ross Ulbricht?



I didn't know that Trump was going to commute Ross Ulbricht's sentence. I personally think that would be great. Yes, Ross deserved some time in prison for his stupid actions, but not the time he was given, that's for sure.

I feel like I'm becoming more and more pro-Trump since he won the election.

[salad daging]

Actually, the bet in Polymarket's “Trump's political promise” was created by Polymarket itself or someone else made it?

Not betting in Polymarket bets to buy options, because I myself don't pay much attention to news about US politics anymore, except for the last time I saw that Trump would create a bitcoin reserve, that's all but I see the chances are still low as the picture shown.

Maybe those who like political news will be happy to buy options to bet on Polymarket.

[GxSTxV]

Definitely, we can say that Polymarket is the new hype in crypto gambling now and everyoneis talking about it, as bettors focus on prediction markets rather than just coins, traditional games or sportsbetting. Betting on events like Bitcoin reserves or political outcomes is gaining traction more than anytime after US elections. Truly, as you mentioned 34% chance of a Bitcoin reserve within 100 days shows the blend of crypto and speculative betting.

More people are definitely engaging in these markets, and some are even creating their own no matter if this will be prohibited later or the risks behind it. It's a unique mix of crypto and gambling, without the need of KYC process.

Myself, knowing that I quit gambling, I would like to invest in something about the success of this market, such as specific coins related to Polymarket, isn't it better than gambling inside this platform itself?

[bitbollo]

similar platforms were already offerings these kind of "exotic" bets.
Probably now Polymarket has the chance of a free marketing after Trump win and a better platform.
Using cryptocoins create an easy experience for all users. I will not surprised it these kind of bets will grow even with some spin offs or other platforms offering the same.

[cabron]

~
Of course, the hot ones are Trump's promises:
https://polymarket.com/dashboards/trump


~

Wait, what? More than 50% chance that Trump in his first 100 days will pardon Ross Ulbricht?



I didn't know that Trump was going to commute Ross Ulbricht's sentence. I personally think that would be great. Yes, Ross deserved some time in prison for his stupid actions, but not the time he was given, that's for sure.

I feel like I'm becoming more and more pro-Trump since he won the election.

He mentioned Ross before, which is probably why this is in the polymarket. None so far tried adding Biden pardoning Hunter.

The election made polymarket the most controversial market even when there are projects alike before it. Somehow I wanted to try betting but there is more to sports betting platforms than in poly. Political events are always unsure unless you are an insider like Pelosi. If any government insiders re creating those bets, they re sure taking advantage.

[mindrust]

Nothing surprising. Politics has always been a hot topic and people have been betting on politics for a long time. Lots of people learned about its popularity after polymarket became famous probably and I can understand that.

Long before polymarket I was making bets on freebitco.in. I made a bet on Trump’s victory in 2016 and won.

I was wondering back then why people waste their time on sports betting while politics is much more predictable and fun…

[Hispo]

....
But what they bring up about the policies that will be taken is interesting politically and betting, and I seem to be more and more tempted by political betting in the future, with economic issues and major policies in the US sphere.

Let us be honest: Trump as a president and politician in general is wacky. That means there are more people feeling enthusiastic in betting on what is going to happen in the United States, both in their inner policies and also in the policies they plan to apply against their adversaries and allies.
Had Joe Biden or kamala won the election, there would not be as many people looking to bet on politics, because both of them were part of the establishment, the status quo, Trump is rather unpredictable and that is what makes betting on his policies attractive for people, specially those who have been into politics for rather a long time.

I was not aware polymarket had a dedicated section on Trump and his promises, to be honest, I will take a look at it when I have got some time.
Though we must remember that since we are talking on promises of Trump, someone within his team could use privileged information in order to execute a bet just before Trump made public some of his decisions as president, we need to be careful about it.

[BABY SHOES]

Donald Trump's victory is getting interesting... many of Trump's promises are being bet on in the Polymarket as Donald Trum's victory is quite controversial... Did Joe Biden's win in the past Polymakert offer this betting option? Or did Polymarket not exist when Joe Biden won?....

I don't bet on the Polymarket platform... It's not as common as a regular casino.

But the interesting thing is.... Donald Trump's 10 working days will end the Gaza war? I think it will be interesting because there is a lot of support from those who want the middle east war to end.

[passwordnow]

I remember that some sports bookies have that type of betting before but it's totally crazy and poly is on another level. Is it them that are the ones that makes these things to bet for? or it is a suggestion from a user and their other users have agreed to bet on it and so the volume has grown? I wonder if stake will have these odd type of special events that they'll categorize in politics.

Myself, knowing that I quit gambling, I would like to invest in something about the success of this market, such as specific coins related to Polymarket, isn't it better than gambling inside this platform itself?

As long as there is a demand for these kind of bets, they'll continue to add it. And I agree that it's better if there's something like that. But anyway, the platform itself is all about predictions so expect that anything that can be guessed or predicted, they'll have it.