Sports "trap of the day" , or is it?

[AHOYBRAUSE]

Personally, I find the concept of a “trap” a bit contradictory and confusing. But the expression “too good to be true” is funny. In general, I would go the classic way and stick to the vulue strategy. Our task is to determine the initial odds of the game as if we were unbiased bookmakers. Who take into account all available and relevant information, and all the rest of the change in odds occurs due to the change in the balance of bets between two or three outcomes of the game. And if you see an inflated odds, which is nevertheless probable in terms of winning, then it is worth considering as a working scenario.

Trap games are a common expression to be honest. So often in for example college basketball a on paper much better team, that also beat the same team by like 20-30 points 1 week prior, is playing against a team they should dominate again but the odds make it a 50/50 affair, which is very strange. Still, because of the situation on paper the masses bet on this team because it's the only logic bet when you get such high odds. And what do you know, the should be big underdog for whatever reason dominates and wins the game, as Vegas predicted. It's so strange sometimes.

[TravelMug]

Personally, I find the concept of a “trap” a bit contradictory and confusing. But the expression “too good to be true” is funny. In general, I would go the classic way and stick to the vulue strategy. Our task is to determine the initial odds of the game as if we were unbiased bookmakers. Who take into account all available and relevant information, and all the rest of the change in odds occurs due to the change in the balance of bets between two or three outcomes of the game. And if you see an inflated odds, which is nevertheless probable in terms of winning, then it is worth considering as a working scenario.

Trap games are a common expression to be honest. So often in for example college basketball a on paper much better team, that also beat the same team by like 20-30 points 1 week prior, is playing against a team they should dominate again but the odds make it a 50/50 affair, which is very strange. Still, because of the situation on paper the masses bet on this team because it's the only logic bet when you get such high odds. And what do you know, the should be big underdog for whatever reason dominates and wins the game, as Vegas predicted. It's so strange sometimes.

Yeah, and it's so tricky that after the game, you really don't know what really happen and you can only conclude that the favorite really had a bad game, and it seems that the rim is getting smaller and smaller.

Or there could be what we call a sucker trap, for sure most roulette games players knows this. In a single 0 roulette, payout is 35:1, but in reality you have a 1/37 chance of wining and yet there are players who are "suckered" by this games.

[Baofeng]

The thing is, there are news that are not really out in the public until game time.

Is this common in popular games though? I mainly follow football news and their coverage is huge. Depending on who you ask, you can get some made-up rumors to accurate insider information. It's not hard to imagine these insiders also leaking the news to a bookmaker, especially on unpopular competitions. This made me recall a thread talking about betting on some obscure games on this board. I guess the lesson shared on that thread also applies to the case described by OP.

It's hard to say if this is common, but in basketball particularly in NBA, there could be teams that hold the news until near the game. It could be practice though specially if there is a high stakes game.

Btw OP, the odds shared on the game you mentioned seem to have changed before the game started, CMIIW. You can probably ask the bookmaker how they determine the odds if they share how their calculation works. Maybe injuries don't affect it as much as social media trends.

Not much you can do if you will ask the sports bookies as they will be firmed on the listing. Injuries are a big deal specially if the person is what we call the franchise player, or the number 1 option to score. And we have a NBA thread and some of the best tipsters sometimes fall for this trap.

[EarnOnVictor]

-snip-
So how on earth do we have these odds in here?? Injury wise there is no information to be found online by the way.

The answer to this is not far-fetched, the little odds will always go for the better side or perceived better side and the high odds go to the weaker side or perceived side. However, this doesn't automatically tell about the outcome of matches and events in the matches but are often a reflection of the obvious having carefully considered all factors which are not limited to the current feat of the two teams, their history against each other, histories at home, injuries etc.

At times too, the odds could be a bait, which calls for extensive research before opting for sports options.

[AHOYBRAUSE]

-snip-
So how on earth do we have these odds in here?? Injury wise there is no information to be found online by the way.

The answer to this is not far-fetched, the little odds will always go for the better side or perceived better side and the high odds go to the weaker side or perceived side. However, this doesn't automatically tell about the outcome of matches and events in the matches but are often a reflection of the obvious having carefully considered all factors which are not limited to the current feat of the two teams, their history against each other, histories at home, injuries etc.

At times too, the odds could be a bait, which calls for extensive research before opting for sports options.

That's the most generic and AI sounding post I have seen today, honestly. Of course high odds go to the underdog and low odds go to the favorite? Was there really any need to explain this? 
In this case the odds made no sense, no sense whatsoever. Also, after the game I checked the box score and the same players were on the court that played each other some days back when they faced off and the favorite had 1.25 odds. So the odds went from being a 8-10 points favorite in game 1 to being a 2 point favorite in game 2, with the exact some situation (players, home court, momentum, position in standings).

Too bad we also have some signature campaign spam here, as usual.
None spamming members, please feel free to post games yourself, it's nice to have a discussion about those games when they appear.

[Perfectbaby]

The answer to this is not far-fetched, the little odds will always go for the better side or perceived better side and the high odds go to the weaker side or perceived side.

You know most times when i comes across game like i do think twice before making my pick because sometimes the bookmaker themselves could twist up the whole thing were you can't be able to detects which is the team to win due to irregular odds rotation. When I see the winning team have less odds and seeing the losing team having a lesser odds, i don't mind going for research to know why such weak team was given a lesser odds, some could be that due to change in players or newly assigned player but if i don't find similar i often go with the team which i believed to win the game, what i mostly understand is that they often used odd probability to scare some gamblers to go pick the wrong option this is for those who are easily trigged by odds.

[Su-asa]

The answer to this is not far-fetched, the little odds will always go for the better side or perceived better side and the high odds go to the weaker side or perceived side.

You know most times when i comes across game like i do think twice before making my pick because sometimes the bookmaker themselves could twist up the whole thing were you can't be able to detects which is the team to win due to irregular odds rotation. When I see the winning team have less odds and seeing the losing team having a lesser odds, i don't mind going for research to know why such weak team was given a lesser odds, some could be that due to change in players or newly assigned player but if i don't find similar i often go with the team which i believed to win the game, what i mostly understand is that they often used odd probability to scare some gamblers to go pick the wrong option this is for those who are easily trigged by odds.

It's hard to know the actual games that will bring winning to you, that's why it's based on luck a gambler can win. Although winning games is fun but one won't be happen when losing, especially when on a losing streak. However, on gamble even appling a single strategy all the time might not give you a constant winning because odds changes. Life bets odds are not the same if the games haven't started.
Reason why a weaker team is giving the smaller odds is because the best player on the stronger team is injured and won't be playing the game. So the weaker team will be given the smaller odds while the stranger team will be given the bigger odds. Sometimes they both draw the games or any of the both team might win. The results of the games depends on the players.

[stompix]

Making a new thread for sports bettors to post their trap of day games. What's a trap game you ask? A game where the odds literally make 0 sense and the odds are too good to be true.

But why would this be a trap?
The favorite got way too good odds, it wasn't as much a trap as an opportunity, a trap would be one where the player is deceived into putting money because he thinks there is no way this will not happen, rather than a trap I actually smell something completely wrong with this, they started 2.7 and dropped to 2.1 in a matter of hours, that must have been a ton of money compared to the volume, I see on odds portal the 0.6 change in less than 4 hours.Somebody must have taken a serious gamble on them!

[davis196]

Korean women's basketball? I would never bet money on a Korean woman's basketball game, even if the odds are really good.
Do you think that the bookies are deliberately creating such "traps" in order to legally steal the gambler's money. Do you have insider information about this particular game being fixed? There are some really suspicious odds in my country's football league, but the football league where I live is notorious with accusations of fixed games and corruption. There are no clear evidences about such "traps" and I don't want to speculate about this topic.

[Oluwa-btc]

Instead of considering the odds, it is better and wise to consider the teams and weights your predictions based on their capacities because taking decisions based on the odds can be entrapping.

Traps of the day usually occur unknowingly especially when you have so much fate in the odds and sometimes a trap can happen in different ways too provided you're unsure of that particular game but you tend to give a try and then you end up knowing it's all a trap, it's sure fustrating and being manipulated into such traps results in you loosing your funds.

[Japinat]

Traps of the day usually occur unknowingly especially when you have so much fate in the odds and sometimes a trap can happen in different ways too provided you're unsure of that particular game but you tend to give a try and then you end up knowing it's all a trap, it's sure fustrating and being manipulated into such traps results in you loosing your funds.

You can’t determine if it’s a trap unless you have a good feel for how trap lines work.
You also won’t know for sure if it was really a trap until the game is over, so it’s more of a gut feel based on the factors you’re seeing before the game.

But if you’re good at spotting trap lines and actually winning because of it then that’s probably one of the best strategies for long-term success.

I still believe that sports betting is a skill-based game, but even with skill it’s still tough to consistently win in the long run.

[EarnOnVictor]

-snip-
So how on earth do we have these odds in here?? Injury wise there is no information to be found online by the way.

The answer to this is not far-fetched, the little odds will always go for the better side or perceived better side and the high odds go to the weaker side or perceived side. However, this doesn't automatically tell about the outcome of matches and events in the matches but are often a reflection of the obvious having carefully considered all factors which are not limited to the current feat of the two teams, their history against each other, histories at home, injuries etc.

At times too, the odds could be a bait, which calls for extensive research before opting for sports options.

That's the most generic and AI sounding post I have seen today, honestly. Of course high odds go to the underdog and low odds go to the favorite? Was there really any need to explain this? 
-snip-

I see your first sentence as an affront. Do you want to check my list???

But wait a minute. Did you mean a better writer and a more constructive personality than you? Keep dreaming and continue to stay artificial/local (in the mind) while my like continue to develop ourselves in all ramifications to your amazement. Funny you!

Regardless, the gist has been rightly passed, it is left to you to believe the obvious or not, even as all those read responses to you are almost the same as mine. It is your choice to continue suspecting bookies on what's 50/50 on both parties, man or wake up to reality.

[wheelz1200]

I'll be honest i bet into "trap games" and it works out most of the time.  For sports betting i set my own odds in my head and if they are favorable over amd above what the book has i bet it.  Most of these look like trap bets but i look at them like good odds.  With that being said i will try to post some up here in this thread as i see them pop up.

[KTChampions]

Making a new thread for sports bettors to post their trap of day games. What's a trap game you ask? A game where the odds literally make 0 sense and the odds are too good to be true.

Let's start off with this one from the Korean woman's basketball league today.

https://www.flashscore.com/match/nojsdJVH/#/match-summary
Hana Bank ( 5 - 16 ) vs Woori MON ( 15 -7 )

Woori is currently only a 2.5 points favorite with money line odds of 1.62. Hana lost the last 5 games while Woori won 5 of the last 6. Also, head to head Woori won the last 18 (!!) games against Hana Bank.
These 2 teams played against each other 12 days ago, also a home game for Hana Bank. The odds for Woori to win that one have been 1.25, compared to the 1.62 they have today that's HUGE.

So how on earth do we have these odds in here?? Injury wise there is no information to be found online by the way.

I don't know anything about this pair, maybe it's a matter of tournament situation/motivation? Sometimes the game doesn't matter much for the favorite and then bookmakers take this into account.
The only thing I can call a trap is today's game between Bayern and Holstein. Bayern is first in the standings and has the most goals scored, Holstein is second to last and has the most goals conceded. Bayern's chances of winning were estimated at 1.04-1.05... with a handicap the odds were not much higher. But in the end the game ended 4-3 and everyone who bet even on a modest handicap of -1 lost their bets.

[Agbamoni]

OP, I won a bet two weeks ago by betting against everyone's favorite side to win. Lucky for me on that day the weaker side won the game. That was my first experience of winning like that, because I needed a good amount of money that day I decided to take the risk. Sometimes our favorite side to win does not always win. In my case, i can call that the trap of the day.

When we see games like this we should not always get into the trap. Yes, at times it is worthwhile other times we will fall for it. To be much safer we should always avoid falling into the trap unless we are in desperate need or our instincts tells us so.

[Jating]

How about the Bucks vs Spurs a few days ago.

The Bucks is the big favorite in this game, but if you look the NBA betting thread, there are bettors who smell something is not right with that kind of line. And so some of them goes with the underdog Spurs and win.

And it was not even a close game, the Spurs really blew off the Bucks even though Giannis and Dame was playing and they are healthy that time.

[Sanitough]

How about the Bucks vs Spurs a few days ago.

The Bucks is the big favorite in this game, but if you look the NBA betting thread, there are bettors who smell something is not right with that kind of line. And so some of them goes with the underdog Spurs and win.

And it was not even a close game, the Spurs really blew off the Bucks even though Giannis and Dame was playing and they are healthy that time.

At first glance, the line might seem like a trap, but there's more to it than just the numbers. The Bucks have been inconsistent lately, and since it was a road game, that doesn't help, they often struggle on the road, especially during long stretches of away games.

Before that big loss, the Bucks also fell to Portland even though they were favored by -5.5 points. That game didn’t scream “trap” because the spread was so wide, but really, it’s the Spurs that look like they’re setting one up. We’ve seen some users rushing to bet on the Bucks, thinking they've found a golden opportunity, but they might just be walking into a well-laid trap.

[Russlenat]

Before that big loss, the Bucks also fell to Portland even though they were favored by -5.5 points. That game didn’t scream “trap” because the spread was so wide, but really, it’s the Spurs that look like they’re setting one up. We’ve seen some users rushing to bet on the Bucks, thinking they've found a golden opportunity, but they might just be walking into a well-laid trap.

That was the story, but a trap is something that makes you decide quickly and pick the wrong side. In that game, if a gambler sees the Bucks at just -2.5 against a non-playoff team, it's an automatic bet especially when you check that all the starters are on the floor. And look at the result: the Spurs absolutely dominated the Bucks by a huge margin. I'm sure that outcome was impossible to miss.