Unemployment rate may rise in 18 months, Fed pivot?

[tabas]

The layoffs have already started long time ago, and with AI, this is replacing the traditional workers and for these companies to save money. Like what Microsoft[1] did for its call centers, it's saved $500M because of the usage of AI but at the cost of many employees lost their jobs. It's sad that this has to happen and with one of the biggest companies in the world, we have to change and upgrade as well with skills irreplaceable by AI.
[1] Microsoft racks up over $500 million in AI savings while slashing jobs, Bloomberg News reports

[JeffBrad12]

The layoffs have already started long time ago, and with AI, this is replacing the traditional workers and for these companies to save money. Like what Microsoft[1] did for its call centers, it's saved $500M because of the usage of AI but at the cost of many employees lost their jobs. It's sad that this has to happen and with one of the biggest companies in the world, we have to change and upgrade as well with skills irreplaceable by AI.
[1] Microsoft racks up over $500 million in AI savings while slashing jobs, Bloomberg News reports

If i'm being honest AI has become the perfect excuses for these companies to slash their spending on employee.
They don't slash jobs because the AI is good, they slash it because they've been waiting for the right time to do so and as it happens the AI narrative is very good for that and it won't spark rage because, well AI is the new revolutionary thing now and people consider it normal.

[tabas]

The layoffs have already started long time ago, and with AI, this is replacing the traditional workers and for these companies to save money. Like what Microsoft[1] did for its call centers, it's saved $500M because of the usage of AI but at the cost of many employees lost their jobs. It's sad that this has to happen and with one of the biggest companies in the world, we have to change and upgrade as well with skills irreplaceable by AI.
[1] Microsoft racks up over $500 million in AI savings while slashing jobs, Bloomberg News reports

If i'm being honest AI has become the perfect excuses for these companies to slash their spending on employee.
They don't slash jobs because the AI is good, they slash it because they've been waiting for the right time to do so and as it happens the AI narrative is very good for that and it won't spark rage because, well AI is the new revolutionary thing now and people consider it normal.

I think most of them did really slashed those jobs because of AI as it made them cost effective and more efficient. But it's also possible that many of them are what you've said that they're just using AI as an excuse to remove all of the employees that they have to remove. That's unfair and injustice if that's the case. Maybe, we'll see some cases in the future about laid off employees that have been unjustified with their labor benefits and why the company chose to do it.

[Wind_FURY]

The layoffs have already started long time ago, and with AI, this is replacing the traditional workers and for these companies to save money. Like what Microsoft[1] did for its call centers, it's saved $500M because of the usage of AI but at the cost of many employees lost their jobs. It's sad that this has to happen and with one of the biggest companies in the world, we have to change and upgrade as well with skills irreplaceable by AI.

[1] Microsoft racks up over $500 million in AI savings while slashing jobs, Bloomberg News reports

If i'm being honest AI has become the perfect excuses for these companies to slash their spending on employee.
They don't slash jobs because the AI is good, they slash it because they've been waiting for the right time to do so and as it happens the AI narrative is very good for that and it won't spark rage because, well AI is the new revolutionary thing now and people consider it normal.

You may be right. BUT the slashing of those jobs even though the reason might be bullshit still concludes the slashing of those jobs, and that's NOT bullshit.

The economy and the market may crash if the Federal Reserve doesn't time the pivot to Q.E. well enough, AND they have a bad record on timing it. They usually decide too late and pivot when the crash is going to happen.

[hafiztalha]

The layoffs have already started long time ago, and with AI, this is replacing the traditional workers and for these companies to save money. Like what Microsoft[1] did for its call centers, it's saved $500M because of the usage of AI but at the cost of many employees lost their jobs. It's sad that this has to happen and with one of the biggest companies in the world, we have to change and upgrade as well with skills irreplaceable by AI.
[1] Microsoft racks up over $500 million in AI savings while slashing jobs, Bloomberg News reports

If i'm being honest AI has become the perfect excuses for these companies to slash their spending on employee.
They don't slash jobs because the AI is good, they slash it because they've been waiting for the right time to do so and as it happens the AI narrative is very good for that and it won't spark rage because, well AI is the new revolutionary thing now and people consider it normal.

I think most of them did really slashed those jobs because of AI as it made them cost effective and more efficient. But it's also possible that many of them are what you've said that they're just using AI as an excuse to remove all of the employees that they have to remove. That's unfair and injustice if that's the case. Maybe, we'll see some cases in the future about laid off employees that have been unjustified with their labor benefits and why the company chose to do it.

Federal central Bank always take bad steps for the economy of the World but we will try to establish our country to make most job giving country . In that respect, we want more creative and innovative people who will work decently on the projects and that will make new industry which people did not expect. We saw many news in which they gave fear of losing jobs but after COVID we saw many jobs at risk and many people lost their jobs and many will lose in the future but innovative people will be in the market at every time because they will change their mind and they will learn new skills.Fed have to make sure what it want for the economy of World. Apparently it want to destroy many countries and want it's power.

[Wind_FURY]

I believe that with the latest revisions made with the latest employment data in non-farming payrolls, we probably wouldn't need the sort of "mega-layoffs" that was indicated in OP to make the Federal Reserve pivot to Q.E.

There could be underlying issues and weaknesses in the U.S. Economy that will show its face in Q4. 👀

We'll probably have another Golden Opportunity for buying the DIP!

[Wind_FURY]

There's a higher probability of a rate cut coming within the month after Jerome Powell's speech in Jackson Hole. Some analysts made a hypothesis that Powell might be sacrificing one of the Federal Reserve's mandates, price stability, to fulfill the other mandate, full employment.

Why now?

Because unemployment may surge. But when? Probably in Q4 this year, and that's because of lower economic demand in some sectors, NOT the shower thought posted in OP.

[pooya87]

With the recent news about US unemployment rate hitting a new all time high and with the negative reaction that the Wall Street market showed to the stats, things are going to become even more complicated for the FED.

[harapan]

Unemployment rate will be sweeping across many sectors and for many reasons it is best to start preparing for it right now if you haven't been affected, start getting independent and learning stuffs that a computer won't be able to do effectively like a human.

You're absolutely right, this is the time we need to refocus on multi tasking greatly on different areas that will birth profits and a lot of skills are in store for one to grab. Possibly look at the skills that years to come will birth multi millions and more income streams, likes of a tech in any areas like data analytics cyber security a lot of them would be income generating and would be beneficial to the society in the long run so we all need to make hay while the sun shine.

[Fortify]

👀

There's a high probability that if the unemployment rate surges, then the Federal Reserve pivots to FULL Q.E./turns on the money printer in expectation of a Recession, and to prevent an actual Economic Depression.

This X post says that "mega layoffs" will start in 18 months.

At a recent dinner I met a very senior engineer at one of the Big Four tech cos.

His team develops tooling for a 0-engineer future. They're not allowed to tell anyone internally what they're working on to avoid mass panic. He figures mega layoffs start in 18 months.

https://x.com/corbtt/status/1927821116057309685

One guy in an engineering team may have big thoughts on whatever his team is working on, but that doesn't mean it will come true - for every Google/IBM/Facebook/etc idea that made it big, there were thousands that died early on and it didn't matter how much money was pumped into them. People love to make and hear grand forecasts, but we as a species can be pretty terrible at accurately predicting outcomes or unintended consequences. Regardless of all that, we've had some pretty good times the last 10+ years when it comes to employment figures and are well overdue a deep recession that acts as a natural reset, which may happen any year now and be entirely unrelated to this single engineers prediction.

[₿itcoin]

There's a higher probability of a rate cut coming within the month after Jerome Powell's speech in Jackson Hole. Some analysts made a hypothesis that Powell might be sacrificing one of the Federal Reserve's mandates, price stability, to fulfill the other mandate, full employment.

Why now?

Because unemployment may surge. But when? Probably in Q4 this year, and that's because of lower economic demand in some sectors, NOT the shower thought posted in OP.

if you ask me i also think Fed could take an action to earlier than we are expecting.. why? cause Powell's jackson hole speech come up with a real threat about current raising job risk.. i could see he is not only worry about inflanation rate, he explained everything very well. August's employment statistic was weak, just 22000 new jobs and the unemployment rate still climbing to 4.3 %. so market bets on a September rate cut rose.

i have read Williams remark he is from NY fed also bring up that the unemployment rate could swarm up to 4.5 %, further nourish the possibility of lowering interest rate from fed. Now, Morgan Stanley says the condition is likely to be calm with heavy rate cuts through next year. So yes, i will say the fed pivot which is focusing on job concern is working well..

[bettercrypto]

The layoffs have already started long time ago, and with AI, this is replacing the traditional workers and for these companies to save money. Like what Microsoft[1] did for its call centers, it's saved $500M because of the usage of AI but at the cost of many employees lost their jobs. It's sad that this has to happen and with one of the biggest companies in the world, we have to change and upgrade as well with skills irreplaceable by AI.
[1] Microsoft racks up over $500 million in AI savings while slashing jobs, Bloomberg News reports

If i'm being honest AI has become the perfect excuses for these companies to slash their spending on employee.
They don't slash jobs because the AI is good, they slash it because they've been waiting for the right time to do so and as it happens the AI narrative is very good for that and it won't spark rage because, well AI is the new revolutionary thing now and people consider it normal.

But if people were just wise in this day and age, they could actually use AI technology to obtain the profit they want, to be honest,
and I see many people who are truly utilizing the development of AI.

So if others are saying that AI will replace employed people, I don't think it will replace all of them. That is impossible to happen because, honestly speaking,
it's still different to have a human employee.

[fuguebtc]

With the recent news about US unemployment rate hitting a new all time high and with the negative reaction that the Wall Street market showed to the stats, things are going to become even more complicated for the FED.

It can be said that the Fed is in a dilemma. Because with such high unemployment and if they don't lower interest rates, this could push the US economy into recession. Conversely, if they cut interest rates and inflation picks up again next year, things won't be much better.

The market is very optimistic that the Fed will cut interest rates on the 17th, but I think they will only make a final decision when they look at the CPI index released on September 10. If CPI comes up unexpectedly, I don't think they will cut interest rates like the market is expecting.

[iBaba]

Unemployment rate will be sweeping across many sectors and for many reasons it is best to start preparing for it right now if you haven't been affected, start getting independent and learning stuffs that a computer won't be able to do effectively like a human.

You're absolutely right, this is the time we need to refocus on multi tasking greatly on different areas that will birth profits and a lot of skills are in store for one to grab. Possibly look at the skills that years to come will birth multi millions and more income streams, likes of a tech in any areas like data analytics cyber security a lot of them would be income generating and would be beneficial to the society in the long run so we all need to make hay while the sun shine.

Very key. Having multiple source of income is very important for one's survival because you need to feed yourself, cloth yourself and shelter yourself at the end of the day. So whatever is needed to survive legitimately, we will engage in it. I was having a conversation with a friend this morning and told him I now manage an artiste in the music industry and he was wowed about and used this statement ghat cracked me up myself. He said 'bro... You're a Jack of all trade & master of profits. True you have to really be a jack of all trades to be able to really survive these days.

[Wind_FURY]

With the recent news about US unemployment rate hitting a new all time high and with the negative reaction that the Wall Street market showed to the stats, things are going to become even more complicated for the FED.

?

Ser? Did the unemployment rate hit a "new all time high"? There are small monthly increases, but it's FAR from hitting an all time high. Can you post the link/source of your information?

Plus actually, it's going to be more SIMPLE for the Federal Reserve. Simply pivot to real Q.E. and turn on the money printer. Do you hear that? BRRRRRRRRR.

[imamusma]

With the recent news about US unemployment rate hitting a new all time high and with the negative reaction that the Wall Street market showed to the stats, things are going to become even more complicated for the FED.

It can be said that the Fed is in a dilemma. Because with such high unemployment and if they don't lower interest rates, this could push the US economy into recession. Conversely, if they cut interest rates and inflation picks up again next year, things won't be much better.

The market is very optimistic that the Fed will cut interest rates on the 17th, but I think they will only make a final decision when they look at the CPI index released on September 10. If CPI comes up unexpectedly, I don't think they will cut interest rates like the market is expecting.

However, the fact is that President Trump wants interest rate cuts, and if that doesn't happen, tensions between Trump and the Fed will continue to escalate. I personally hope the Fed can lower interest rates, not because I support Trump, but because it will have a good impact on the crypto market. We'll see what happens in the next week when the Fed holds its meeting, many parties seem optimistic.

[pooya87]

With the recent news about US unemployment rate hitting a new all time high and with the negative reaction that the Wall Street market showed to the stats, things are going to become even more complicated for the FED.

It can be said that the Fed is in a dilemma. Because with such high unemployment and if they don't lower interest rates, this could push the US economy into recession. Conversely, if they cut interest rates and inflation picks up again next year, things won't be much better.

US economy (like many other economies) is already in a recession. The governments just don't want to admit it already to prevent the recession from getting worse. In fact one of the reasons why Trump is pushing for a rate cut like this is the fact that US economy is in a recession and the belief is that cutting rates fixes it.

Ser? Did the unemployment rate hit a "new all time high"? There are small monthly increases, but it's FAR from hitting an all time high. Can you post the link/source of your information?

If we ignore the COVID19 recession and its unprecedented high unemployment rate due to the heavy recession of that time where the economy was shut down for the most part, this is an ATH in the past 8 years (last was around June-July 2017).

But the key point here was the negative market reactions not the rate itself.

[Wind_FURY]

Ser? Did the unemployment rate hit a "new all time high"? There are small monthly increases, but it's FAR from hitting an all time high. Can you post the link/source of your information?

If we ignore the COVID19 recession and its unprecedented high unemployment rate due to the heavy recession of that time where the economy was shut down for the most part, this is an ATH in the past 8 years (last was around June-July 2017).

But the key point here was the negative market reactions not the rate itself.

?

What are you talking about? You said RECENT news about U.S. Unemployment Numbers surging to another all time high. You're either misinformed or merely shitposting.
 
I'm not trying to offend you, but please post the link of the site/URL of that information. We should make everyone informed as much as possible.

  👍

[fuguebtc]

It can be said that the Fed is in a dilemma. Because with such high unemployment and if they don't lower interest rates, this could push the US economy into recession. Conversely, if they cut interest rates and inflation picks up again next year, things won't be much better.

The market is very optimistic that the Fed will cut interest rates on the 17th, but I think they will only make a final decision when they look at the CPI index released on September 10. If CPI comes up unexpectedly, I don't think they will cut interest rates like the market is expecting.

However, the fact is that President Trump wants interest rate cuts, and if that doesn't happen, tensions between Trump and the Fed will continue to escalate. I personally hope the Fed can lower interest rates, not because I support Trump, but because it will have a good impact on the crypto market. We'll see what happens in the next week when the Fed holds its meeting, many parties seem optimistic.

Whether the Fed lowers interest rates or not depends on the health of the economy, they don't care much about Trump's feelings because the Fed's job is not to please Trump or any government.
The Fed is an independent organization and its mission is to maintain economic stability. That is why, aside from complaining and cursing on social media, Trump can do nothing to influence the Fed's decision.

It's not just you, everyone wants the Fed to lower interest rates because everyone believes it will bring growth to the market. But the "sell the news" scenario is also possible, be careful.

US economy (like many other economies) is already in a recession. The governments just don't want to admit it already to prevent the recession from getting worse. In fact one of the reasons why Trump is pushing for a rate cut like this is the fact that US economy is in a recession and the belief is that cutting rates fixes it.

You are probably right, I just checked the data again and the US economy in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 both show negative growth. In theory, negative GDP for two consecutive quarters means the economy has entered a recession.
Yes, America is in recession but they don't want to admit it.