Unemployment rate may rise in 18 months, Fed pivot?

[Wind_FURY]

 👀

There's a high probability that if the unemployment rate surges, then the Federal Reserve pivots to FULL Q.E./turns on the money printer in expectation of a Recession, and to prevent an actual Economic Depression.

This X post says that "mega layoffs" will start in 18 months.

At a recent dinner I met a very senior engineer at one of the Big Four tech cos.

His team develops tooling for a 0-engineer future. They're not allowed to tell anyone internally what they're working on to avoid mass panic. He figures mega layoffs start in 18 months.

https://x.com/corbtt/status/1927821116057309685

[Fortify]

If you exclude the effects of Covid and Russia's invasion of Ukraine - both freak events which caused dips in the stock market but were not really due to economic mismanagement, we have not really had a major recession for almost a couple decades now, which is highly unusual. We've had plenty of smaller corrections along the way but the fact that the stock markets are repeatedly nudging record highs with all the current turmoil (e.g. tariffs), it is surprising. However there is some economic data starting to filter through - less jobs available, a higher number of unemployment claims and trouble in the bond market, that indicates we might be heading towards a slow burn recession. Business needs confidence in the future, which is becoming very difficult when the president of the richest and most innovative country in the world is acting so erratically, we simply don't know what economic shock will cause the next collapse - but it feels close.

[franky1]

lets just skip ahead to where machines make wood based products, whereby woodworking skillset is no longer required in the labour market. whereby wind_furys skillset in the real world is no longer needed

what should windfury do
.. answer: something else, anything else


i say this because its like 100 years ago, where family farms needed the entire family to work a farm.. but then harvesters and other machines came along. and the main household member(father/husband) got more efficient, sent his kids off to school to learn other skills and when old enough his kids went into the city to work in other industries unrelated to farming.. the main household member got so efficient, he bought up his neighbours farm and joined them all together, they too moved to the city to find new jobs in other industries

there is more population now than there was 100 years ago. and although farming machines have turned the job of 5 people per farm of 10 farms(50 people) into a job requiring only 1 person.. the unemployment rate did not multiply by 50x
and now in 2025, we are not having even more unemployment % levels than 100 years ago

here is the secret
new skills, new industries, new jobs, new futures
..

what has changed over the 100 years is the idea that someone gets a job at 15 and they are still working in the same exact job with same company 45 years later and calling it a 'career'
these days people change jobs yearly, people learn new skills or train to get promoted. many things change and people adapt
new niche industries pop up, and then populate. peoples needs change and thus industries change to meet the new needs

with different people having more leisure time because working 60 hours is no longer needed. people then need more entertainment or hobbies to fill their time and new industries then fulfil the new needs

100 years ago farmers didnt know that they would need to grow more wheat to sell to companies who make mcdonalds burger buns..
100 years ago farmers didnt know that they would need to raise more cows for dairy and meat industry to fill the new need of the fast food industry
..but now we know

sending the farmers children off to school and then to the city to work, birthed the need of fast food, which then helped expand the farming industry

so although windfury may no longer need to hand-tool his carpentry work.. he can become the next ikea selling many more wooden chairs and tables

[kotajikikox]

👀

There's a high probability that if the unemployment rate surges, then the Federal Reserve pivots to FULL Q.E./turns on the money printer in expectation of a Recession, and to prevent an actual Economic Depression.

This X post says that "mega layoffs" will start in 18 months.

At a recent dinner I met a very senior engineer at one of the Big Four tech cos.

His team develops tooling for a 0-engineer future. They're not allowed to tell anyone internally what they're working on to avoid mass panic. He figures mega layoffs start in 18 months.

https://x.com/corbtt/status/1927821116057309685

Recession may come sooner than expected so we all should just be prepared if it does happen no matter what the extent of it. Learn which assets would be the safest to invest in and hold during these times. Even if there’s a risk of losing your job, we should have savings and investments and other skills to use so we can be prepared no matter what happens. Life is unpredictable so better prepare for anything we can.

[mindrust]

Stocks are making all time highs again. I don’t think Powell will be lowering the interest rates any time soon. Nobody really cares about the employment rate. Sad but that’s how it is. Only the stock market matters. As long as numbers go up, Powell won’t interfere. The moment the US gets a huge market crash, only then people will scream for help and only then Powell will take action.

Have you ever seen FED reacting to unemployment data before? I don’t remember.

That doesn’t mean they’ll give up on printing money though. That’s a whole different issue. They won’t stop that because it is impossible to stop. The moment they stop printing, the US will go bankrupt.

[BIT-BENDER]

Start learning multiple skill guys. Anyone still doubting this will probably have him/her self to blame, I have a friend that does web development and works as a freelancer but recently hasn't been able to score any gig and that is because of AI.
Unemployment rate will be sweeping across many sectors and for many reasons it is best to start preparing for it right now if you haven't been affected, start getting independent and learning stuffs that a computer won't be able to do effectively like a human.

[|MINER|]

Start learning multiple skill guys. Anyone still doubting this will probably have him/her self to blame, I have a friend that does web development and works as a freelancer but recently hasn't been able to score any gig and that is because of AI.
Unemployment rate will be sweeping across many sectors and for many reasons it is best to start preparing for it right now if you haven't been affected, start getting independent and learning stuffs that a computer won't be able to do effectively like a human.

As AI has created new jobs in the IT sector, it is also beating out those who were normally skilled person. So it is natural that artificial intelligence will take their place in the future and they will be laid off from there. The future tech era will be more competitive, to survive here, we will have to be a very good level of skilled person.

Moreover, I will say another thing here that to survive in our future competitive market, we should not only go after jobs, we should also create funds and lean towards farming, farming is the most promising in the future. Also you will see tech giants are also owning as much land as they can.

[Findingnemo]

Unemployment? That's not my problem will be Trump's response if someone asks that question to him.

But it's obvious right, when the AI starts making it's way so anyone in the tech field is at risk unless they actually got skills that override the AI's ability and it's not just going to end up with this. We got more worse situation coming up when AGI or further developments reaches it's peak because everything will be automated and oversee by the program itself so there won't be much human force needed.

Make money while you still can and get out of the slavery.

[Russlenat]

This is one of those moments where we start to realize that AI really is going to take over a lot of jobs,  that’s why we need to start learning new skills, especially those that are in demand and can’t easily be replaced by AI.

What’s happening now might not cause immediate panic, but it’s already shaking things up. If unemployment starts rising and they respond by printing more money, that’s when the real impact will be felt.

As for me, I’ll just watch how it all plays out. Honestly, in our country, I’m already used to it as unemployment and underemployment have always been high. But still, it’s something we need to prepare for.

[EluguHcman]

This X post says that "mega layoffs" will start in 18 months.

At a recent dinner I met a very senior engineer at one of the Big Four tech cos.

His team develops tooling for a 0-engineer future. They're not allowed to tell anyone internally what they're working on to avoid mass panic. He figures mega layoffs start in 18 months.

https://x.com/corbtt/status/1927821116057309685

With my caption on that tweet, it could denote that those teams are explorers for the confederation providing the tool that is to curtail public threats such as the recession or even be it geopolitical wars because the both of it are being masterminded.

Probably the public may have been fallen on the trap which already economy inflation has come to our doorsteps where goods and services has hiked and the fiats are quite loosing it values as much.

Who knows if maybe they are structuring for restoration which maybe effective in the duration of the 18 months ahead?
They might probably be cooking something that will bring solutions to the catastrophe after discovery the potential effects the mayhem might cause if neglected as it maybe disasterous.
But until then, we still don't know for now.

[EarnOnVictor]

👀

There's a high probability that if the unemployment rate surges, then the Federal Reserve pivots to FULL Q.E./turns on the money printer in expectation of a Recession, and to prevent an actual Economic Depression.

Printing money is a drastic approach, which I don't think would happen this time, judging by the current printing mess. The rapid initial approaches would be:

1. Cutting rate
2. Purchasing assets
3. Supporting the US businesses

This X post says that "mega layoffs" will start in 18 months.

It's a prediction, and 18 months is far enough. I hope Trump realises the severity of his egoistic action before it's too late.

[Dunamisx]

Should this be a threat anymore, because it has been rising perpetually right form time, so having it increase in a certain pace does not change anything, we should only expect the best and prepare for the worst to come, but as many already replied, we should learn to be more dependent on our self, learn a skill that will make us self employed and employers of labourers instead of being employed, because there are many things that needed to be fixed form the government aspect regarding the economic planning for the sustainability of the people.

[passwordnow]

👀

There's a high probability that if the unemployment rate surges, then the Federal Reserve pivots to FULL Q.E./turns on the money printer in expectation of a Recession, and to prevent an actual Economic Depression.

I guess that we've seen this already during the pandemic on what happened. When money printer keeps on going to brrrrrr, this will reflect on the Bitcoin economy as most of these cash will go to the market because they know that it will cause inflation and to make the most of the value of that money, it should go to something valuable and appreciating asset and that's with Bitcoin. While that's what I am thinking right now, the visibility of the layoffs are there from the top companies, LinkedIn, Google, Microsoft and the list goes on.

[Spaceman1000$]

👀

There's a high probability that if the unemployment rate surges, then the Federal Reserve pivots to FULL Q.E./turns on the money printer in expectation of a Recession, and to prevent an actual Economic Depression.

This X post says that "mega layoffs" will start in 18 months.

At a recent dinner I met a very senior engineer at one of the Big Four tech cos.

His team develops tooling for a 0-engineer future. They're not allowed to tell anyone internally what they're working on to avoid mass panic. He figures mega layoffs start in 18 months.

https://x.com/corbtt/status/1927821116057309685

If it gets to that point and the government thinks Q/E will help to probably rejuvenate or propel currency flow into the system then so be it, the soul existence of any government is to avoid economic recession, it's really not a new thing, before now governments previous government have printed money and injected it in the system. The only problem is that, it create some level of inflation but government also has way of handling it.

For this particular company that is quoted on X, maybe they can be going through some level of difficulties due to revenue generation, but it's not enough to say  the panic will be felt cross board in the country, because one thing you must understand is the fact that a country's economy is being managed and controlled by economic experts, and there should be indices and indications beyond reasonable doubt for anybody to come to that conclusion of economic recession forthcoming.

[Rruchi man]

This X post says that "mega layoffs" will start in 18 months.

This sort of information or prediction should not only be useful for employers but also employees, because having a consciousness that you may soon be laid off work will push you into trying to maybe establish your own business as a backup plan or improve the skills you already have to make sure that you are indispensable for the company you work for or push you into starting to look for a better job opportunity now, even before you are being laid off.

This sort of information will put pressure on you and force you to think your way into your next level.

[Wind_FURY]

lets just skip ahead to where machines make wood based products, whereby woodworking skillset is no longer required in the labour market. whereby wind_furys skillset in the real world is no longer needed

what should windfury do
.. answer: something else, anything else


i say this because its like 100 years ago, where family farms needed the entire family to work a farm.. but then harvesters and other machines came along. and the main household member(father/husband) got more efficient, sent his kids off to school to learn other skills and when old enough his kids went into the city to work in other industries unrelated to farming.. the main household member got so efficient, he bought up his neighbours farm and joined them all together, they too moved to the city to find new jobs in other industries

there is more population now than there was 100 years ago. and although farming machines have turned the job of 5 people per farm of 10 farms(50 people) into a job requiring only 1 person.. the unemployment rate did not multiply by 50x
and now in 2025, we are not having even more unemployment % levels than 100 years ago

here is the secret
new skills, new industries, new jobs, new futures
..

what has changed over the 100 years is the idea that someone gets a job at 15 and they are still working in the same exact job with same company 45 years later and calling it a 'career'
these days people change jobs yearly, people learn new skills or train to get promoted. many things change and people adapt
new niche industries pop up, and then populate. peoples needs change and thus industries change to meet the new needs

with different people having more leisure time because working 60 hours is no longer needed. people then need more entertainment or hobbies to fill their time and new industries then fulfil the new needs

100 years ago farmers didnt know that they would need to grow more wheat to sell to companies who make mcdonalds burger buns..
100 years ago farmers didnt know that they would need to raise more cows for dairy and meat industry to fill the new need of the fast food industry
..but now we know

sending the farmers children off to school and then to the city to work, birthed the need of fast food, which then helped expand the farming industry

so although windfury may no longer need to hand-tool his carpentry work.. he can become the next ikea selling many more wooden chairs and tables

But here's the problem, if the information about a 0-Engineer future will actually cause "mega layoffs", how fast will those who have gotten laid off get new skillsets to get new jobs?

  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

To the actual point of my post, which is pivoting to real Q.E. and turning on the money printer. - Will the amount of time for finding/learning new skillsets and getting new jobs be short enough for the "mega layoffs" not to matter?

[shield132]

👀

There's a high probability that if the unemployment rate surges, then the Federal Reserve pivots to FULL Q.E./turns on the money printer in expectation of a Recession, and to prevent an actual Economic Depression.

This X post says that "mega layoffs" will start in 18 months.

At a recent dinner I met a very senior engineer at one of the Big Four tech cos.

His team develops tooling for a 0-engineer future. They're not allowed to tell anyone internally what they're working on to avoid mass panic. He figures mega layoffs start in 18 months.

https://x.com/corbtt/status/1927821116057309685

Unemployment will rise in IT jobs because many people think that they can land a job by finishing a BootCamp and they don't analyse that even Junior designers and developers need a solid portfolio to get a job. A while ago you could land a job without a solid portfolio if you had good connections but today there is no need of junior developers or designers. I'm into UI/UX and for what I needed a junior designer, now Vercel AI does that job easily and cheaply for me, it also provides way better results than 90% of Junior Designers. Seniors and higher-ups will stay in the job market but Juniors will find it almost impossible to land a job unless they train so much to become near to senior level.
At the moment I see that lots of people, especially those who have no job, go live on tiktok and have battle with each other. They earn lots of money by receiving coins and donations, they earn more than I do with my job. So, I think that TikTok and similar platforms will be full of people in 18 months if that forecast is correct.

[Wind_FURY]

👀

There's a high probability that if the unemployment rate surges, then the Federal Reserve pivots to FULL Q.E./turns on the money printer in expectation of a Recession, and to prevent an actual Economic Depression.

This X post says that "mega layoffs" will start in 18 months.

At a recent dinner I met a very senior engineer at one of the Big Four tech cos.

His team develops tooling for a 0-engineer future. They're not allowed to tell anyone internally what they're working on to avoid mass panic. He figures mega layoffs start in 18 months.

https://x.com/corbtt/status/1927821116057309685

Unemployment will rise in IT jobs because many people think that they can land a job by finishing a BootCamp and they don't analyse that even Junior designers and developers need a solid portfolio to get a job. A while ago you could land a job without a solid portfolio if you had good connections but today there is no need of junior developers or designers. I'm into UI/UX and for what I needed a junior designer, now Vercel AI does that job easily and cheaply for me, it also provides way better results than 90% of Junior Designers. Seniors and higher-ups will stay in the job market but Juniors will find it almost impossible to land a job unless they train so much to become near to senior level.

At the moment I see that lots of people, especially those who have no job, go live on tiktok and have battle with each other. They earn lots of money by receiving coins and donations, they earn more than I do with my job. So, I think that TikTok and similar platforms will be full of people in 18 months if that forecast is correct.

Based on your experience, would you say that it would be a reasonable opinion if someone forecasts that the "mega layoffs" are a high probability situation in 18 months?

Because as Bitcoin investors it would probably be good to get some low bids ready in case a recession happens, followed by the Q.E. pivot. It will be another Golden Opportunity to Buy the DIP, and HODL.

[DeathAngel]

There is the possibility of a recession which may come in 2026. As usual Powell will be reactive rather than proactive, he has to bear at least some the fault if there is one. Cutting rates now would help a lot of Americans with their cost of living right now. He won’t though, he’ll wait until everything breaks & then do it.

[Stablexcoin]

Start learning multiple skill guys. Anyone still doubting this will probably have him/her self to blame, I have a friend that does web development and works as a freelancer but recently hasn't been able to score any gig and that is because of AI.
Unemployment rate will be sweeping across many sectors and for many reasons it is best to start preparing for it right now if you haven't been affected, start getting independent and learning stuffs that a computer won't be able to do effectively like a human.

This is what life is about turning into, AI and advanced technology were supposed to make our lives better, but now it is about taking away our jobs leaving many unemployed, it will start from developed countries before moving to underdeveloped countries, so the big countries will be affected more. It's going to be a hell of a problem, once everyone begins changing to different skills that will also have more skilled men than those who need the service, the effect of high unemployment must be felt.