Parabolic bull markets and devastating bear markets are over?

[STT]

Looking at that long term rainbow chart it seems to be showing the bottom price in the blue spectrum range as being near to the 200 week average which has been traditionally the boundaries to Bitcoin range though not always.

he is the main reason behind the Bitcoin price pump from 70K USD to 123K USD in less than one year.

One man is not the reason behind recent price changes, its a long chain of events and at least a million people in my estimate are involved in BTC and part of the overall conclusion in pricing.  If we are directly saying one person we are saying Bitcoin is not decentralized it is a flamingo standing on one leg.
   I wouldn't even say Satoshi himself was the one man who determined the prices lately and you know he wouldn't me to say his whole product was about him like a lynch pin it can fail and that was not his intention best I know.

[philipma1957]

Did you know the reason I asked this question? Bitcoin ETF

I asked because of something like this: Parabolic bull markets and devastating bear markets are over’ — BTC analyst which was uploaded like 10 minutes ago.

If many people are dumping their ETF shares during bear bear market, I do not want to buy such news and what people like Michael Saylor are saying.

Some people still say bear market will come also but more people think it is over.

I still think it is not over but the volatility is reducing. Bitcoin will not just fall much like before but it may still fall. Only what makes me still wait to determine the price it may fall to is its all time high that we do not know yet.

For now I still think it can fall between $46000/$74000 with $123200 all time high.

negative thought like yours will result in punishment if we go to $190,000.

if you are correct you should not buy more since we are headed downhill.

if you are wrong you will not have been buying on the cheap as 113,200 is very cheap price when we go to 190,000.

[justdimin]

One man is not the reason behind recent price changes, its a long chain of events and at least a million people in my estimate are involved in BTC and part of the overall conclusion in pricing.  If we are directly saying one person we are saying Bitcoin is not decentralized it is a flamingo standing on one leg.
   I wouldn't even say Satoshi himself was the one man who determined the prices lately and you know he wouldn't me to say his whole product was about him like a lynch pin it can fail and that was not his intention best I know.

Yes, one person can never be the reason for it to go up like this. Sure one person can make it go up or down depending on who and how, but not a lot like this. We need to also remember that bitcoin is based on all of our moves, so we need to buy and sell, without us buying, the price can't go up, it's just not that possible. For this reason alone we are going to reach to a new level of growing and doing better.

We have to reach something that will take a while, but we will get there eventually. Obviously this isn't an easy way to move forward, but we can definitely reach to a point where it would be a nice thing to handle. For many people, that isn't easy and they end up with a lot worse reasons and causes and issues. We have to be careful with what we are dealing with, and not put too much importance on single person.

[Franctoshi]

It's obvious that the market dynamics has changed coupled with the institutional and the US government involvement into crypto market,  Since we haven't had the usual parabolic move, I see no reason why the market would crash as before, The market has gotten to its maturity stage with the involvement of institutional players since Bitcoin is now seen as a digital gold recognised as strategic reserve for the US, all they want is see Bitcoin growth, I doubt if we will see much panic sellers as before because Bitcoin has come to stay.

[JeffBrad12]

It's obvious that the market dynamics has changed coupled with the institutional and the US government involvement into crypto market,  Since we haven't had the usual parabolic move, I see no reason why the market would crash as before, The market has gotten to its maturity stage with the involvement of institutional players since Bitcoin is now seen as a digital gold recognised as strategic reserve for the US, all they want is see Bitcoin growth, I doubt if we will see much panic sellers as before because Bitcoin has come to stay.

Tbh, the fact that BTC went from $40k to $120k I think can already be considered parabolic move, the strategic reserve is the main trigger here. As for when bitcoin reaching maturity stage, I think it will eliminate the devastating bearish where pullback can be around 90% and turning it into around 20-30% and just that.
The parabolic move with bitcoin will still be there due to the fact that the adoption is still low around the world.

Bitcoin has shown exploding growth in these past few months after all, can't ignore it and I don't think we're reaching that point where price stabilizes.

[Dogedegen]

Of course the parabolic bull markets must eventually stop. Otherwise Bitcoin would consume all the wealth on the planet with a few cycles. Just imagine a run up to $1M, which would mean that the next one after that would have to be $5-$10m and in the third cycle you would already have to be looking at $20-$50m which would only be 12 years from now. As an asset becomes mature and captures so much wealth as Bitcoin has, its volatility must come down. Whether devastating bear markets are over we have yet to see, we have not passed a bear market where this was not true so nobody can say for sure.

Maybe the next cycle is the first one with a really softer crash and without real panic?

On the other hand, both in 2024 and 2025 (after the ETF approval!) we got some short panic dips with almost 30% loss, and that were not even full fledged bear markets. So some nervious/weak hands are still in the market.

I would like to see this change, but we must patiently wait and observe what happens in order to verify this. I am slightly positive that we will not have another panic of previous magnitudes. We just need this to change one time, and it will be a big sign of maturity.

[sana54210]

Volatility is still there, so we can definitely consider this as a good thing if you are a long term holder. Less time worrying about what's going on and you can do a better job of it. However, you have to consider the fact that traders do exist and they are going to make a lot of money with trading if there is a volatility. That should not be an issue for the investor but a lot of issue for the trader.

So traders these days are moving to other coins, that allows them to act a lot better since there are more volatility in coins and tokens that are not bitcoin. I do hope that they do not pick a bad one because when you go to altcoin world there are so many of them which sucks, so it is not going to be easy at all for them.

[Yaunfitda]

I’m not one for the “it’s different this time’ train of thought. I think we are going to see a bubble unless it is interrupted by something in the next couple of months. I then think we will see a crash, big enough to force some bitcoin treasury companies to capitulate. I wouldn’t be surprised if that meant $200K by the end of the year and $80K in 2027.

If you are talking about those companies that invested in this bull market, I'm not sure about them, maybe they already know that game that after a bull run, they will have to sell and take some profits and leave their initial capital. Or if they are not bothered by it, then why not invest in another 2 year long bear market and think about the bigger picture or long term investment? Historically, when the bubble pops up then there will be a huge decline in price. But come to think of it, I mean seeing the bearish price at around $70k-$80k? We can only imagine that price long ago.

[buwaytress]

Yeah, I don't know. The cycle we all knew already recorded several "invalidation" points last year, beginning with the pre-halving ATH, and then the three consecutive peaks, and now we're into the 8th month since we first broke 100k.

One thing we should learn about markets -- any market -- is that devastaing bears are never over, though. Just takes one event to domino down.

[doomloop]

Yeah, I don't know. The cycle we all knew already recorded several "invalidation" points last year, beginning with the pre-halving ATH, and then the three consecutive peaks, and now we're into the 8th month since we first broke 100k.

One thing we should learn about markets -- any market -- is that devastaing bears are never over, though. Just takes one event to domino down.

While that is true, I think it's more about the level of volatility that we are talking about here, not the other way around. If we can consider lower volatility then yeah OP is right because it makes it more sensible. Like back when we moved from 10-20 dollars to 150+ dollars, that was a big increase, can we have the same type of increase now? Of course not.

But we have also moved from 1400 dollars to under 150 dollars too, and you think we will have that kind of drop again? Of course not, that would require us to go down under 15k, and we are not going to have that. So, it's the size of the volatility and I think we are going to do a lot better job. This should be a lot better and do a lot better result in time.

[JeffBrad12]

Yeah, I don't know. The cycle we all knew already recorded several "invalidation" points last year, beginning with the pre-halving ATH, and then the three consecutive peaks, and now we're into the 8th month since we first broke 100k.

One thing we should learn about markets -- any market -- is that devastaing bears are never over, though. Just takes one event to domino down.

Wonder what that even would be? back then the trigger was luna, etc.
Since regulation are becoming better to prevent these kind of problem, i can't think of any even that will start them domino effect and cause devastating bears, now that even the passive liquidity from pension fund starting to tap into bitcoin.
I bet at worst scenario the bearish sentiment would just make bitcoin down 20% and thats it. I don't believe on devastating bear market anymore, I hope it won't happen.

[buwaytress]

While that is true, I think it's more about the level of volatility that we are talking about here, not the other way around. If we can consider lower volatility then yeah OP is right because it makes it more sensible. Like back when we moved from 10-20 dollars to 150+ dollars, that was a big increase, can we have the same type of increase now? Of course not.

But we have also moved from 1400 dollars to under 150 dollars too, and you think we will have that kind of drop again? Of course not, that would require us to go down under 15k, and we are not going to have that. So, it's the size of the volatility and I think we are going to do a lot better job. This should be a lot better and do a lot better result in time.

Yes, yes and yes. These were the specifics OP didn't talk about. Volume is also important to me. A 10% change with huge volume is more significant than 50% change with 5% of the volume. In the end, today's market cap means it can absorb so much volume, that double-digit changes at high volume is the only marker of something significant.

One thing we should learn about markets -- any market -- is that devastaing bears are never over, though. Just takes one event to domino down.

Wonder what that even would be? back then the trigger was luna, etc.
Since regulation are becoming better to prevent these kind of problem, i can't think of any even that will start them domino effect and cause devastating bears, now that even the passive liquidity from pension fund starting to tap into bitcoin.
I bet at worst scenario the bearish sentiment would just make bitcoin down 20% and thats it. I don't believe on devastating bear market anymore, I hope it won't happen.

I thought it would be war a year or two ago. Even half a year ago, nuclear war seemed back on the cards. I'm not ruling out global-scale conflict, coupled with deepening economic crises and natural disaster, if they all come together during a similar Covid moment, markets could cripple, and that would affect Bitcoin.

[wiss19]

^ That is very true, specially when it comes to altcoins. Imagine some small volume thing, it can move 10x in a day and then the drop 99% in a day and both would be very possible when the volume is low and some whale enters. This is why we would not be getting the best result we want.

Same thing could be true for bitcoin, while the volume can't allow anything that large, it still moves, some days we have more volume and some days we have less volume, and that is why we should not be really considering this as a way to get a better result without considering volume into play. I would prefer a high volume increase as well, with high volume, that means everyone is interested in buying it, and I would prefer that a lot more.

[Dogedegen]

^ That is very true, specially when it comes to altcoins. Imagine some small volume thing, it can move 10x in a day and then the drop 99% in a day and both would be very possible when the volume is low and some whale enters. This is why we would not be getting the best result we want.

Same thing could be true for bitcoin, while the volume can't allow anything that large, it still moves, some days we have more volume and some days we have less volume, and that is why we should not be really considering this as a way to get a better result without considering volume into play. I would prefer a high volume increase as well, with high volume, that means everyone is interested in buying it, and I would prefer that a lot more.

While I value your argument and get your point, I don't think this is a real concern in the practical sense of the word. Bitcoin is simply too big, altcoins are pocket change scams. It can not move that much without accompanying massive volume. Further, it should be noted that the volume tracking websites that everyone uses do not have access to all the trading data around Bitcoin. The problem is that there is no good metric. Public exchange data does not include volumes from private exchanges, private OTC desks and P2P trading. On chain data includes some of these like P2P trades but you can't filter the data in any way, so you can't be sure whether something is trade or not.

Therefore, one should always assume that the actual volume is slightly or decently bigger than what is being reported.

[virasog]

It's obvious that the market dynamics has changed coupled with the institutional and the US government involvement into crypto market,  Since we haven't had the usual parabolic move, I see no reason why the market would crash as before, The market has gotten to its maturity stage with the involvement of institutional players since Bitcoin is now seen as a digital gold recognised as strategic reserve for the US, all they want is see Bitcoin growth, I doubt if we will see much panic sellers as before because Bitcoin has come to stay.

I don't fully agree with this argument and we shall see another 80% down bear market too. Also i don't pay much attention to the bullish and bearish news. As an example, a few months before USA announces the bitcoin strategic reserves which means that USA would be buying bitcoin and put them in its reserves. But one or two days ago, I heard that the USA won't be buying bitcoin from the market, and this news is putting bearish pressure on the bitcoin price when it was at its all-time high. You never know when the government stance changes.

US Will Not Be Purchasing Any Bitcoin, Treasury Secretary Bessent Says

[Odusko]

Take it or leave it, bull market and bear market are all features of the market and we should expect any of them at anytime, those names you mentioned are all speculators so let just allow them to have their day and position ourselves to take a better decision against the next big lip for bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market entirely.

[OgNasty]

I would never dream of saying something as crazy as devastating bear markets no longer exist. I actually think we’re only a few weeks or possibly months away from the start of one and I’m hoping we see some parabolic action between now and then. Don’t get comfortable. Bitcoin will make a move when everyone decides it is boring.

[Zlantann]

I would never dream of saying something as crazy as devastating bear markets no longer exist. I actually think we’re only a few weeks or possibly months away from the start of one and I’m hoping we see some parabolic action between now and then. Don’t get comfortable. Bitcoin will make a move when everyone decides it is boring.

People are mainly attributing the recent increase in the price of Bitcoin to ETFs and other institutional investors. They are quick to forget that the halving plays an important role in the current price rise. Immediately the halving ends, the supply of Bitcoin will increase, and the force of demand and supply will affect the market. You are right, Donator Og, we shouldn't be deceived that the bear market has ended because as long as the four-year cycle exists, we will always experience a season of price drop.