Parabolic bull markets and devastating bear markets are over?

[Oshosondy]

Did you know the reason I asked this question? Bitcoin ETF

I asked because of something like this: Parabolic bull markets and devastating bear markets are over’ — BTC analyst which was uploaded like 10 minutes ago.

If many people are dumping their ETF shares during bear bear market, I do not want to buy such news and what people like Michael Saylor are saying.

Some people still say bear market will come also but more people think it is over.

I still think it is not over but the volatility is reducing. Bitcoin will not just fall much like before but it may still fall. Only what makes me still wait to determine the price it may fall to is its all time high that we do not know yet.

For now I still think it can fall between $46000/$74000 with $123200 all time high.

[Churchillvv]

This year bull run is quite different but not entirely different, even though we have some slight changes that are merely results of actions that affect the world economy like tariffs, I can also not agree that the parabolic bull markets are over, maybe we can consider that if we look at the chart from a closer range but if in a wider view it might seem normal like every other bull market.

Although I remember trump saying this year is trump year or crypto blah blah I can't remember his exact words yet I don't think much have changed.

[EL MOHA]

Some people still say bear market will come also but more people think it is over.

I still think it is not over but the volatility is reducing. Bitcoin will not just fall much like before but it may still fall. Only what makes me still wait to determine the price it may fall to is its all time high that we do not know yet.

For now I still think it can fall between $46000/$74000 with $123200 all time high.

Even though I don’t take seriously all this analysts I definitely agree it’s some of their points, first it is the bull and the bear market wouldn’t be the same like before. I fully agree with this not that there wouldn’t be bearish market happening in the future again but the bitcoin market cycle will still stick around like bull run after halving period for a year and bearish sentiment following. But unlike in the past the volatility of either price pump or price dump will be reduced. Like the next bear market I don’t expect a near 80% market crash like we used to see in the past before or in bull market the type of huge pumps like having 10x in one halving cycle to another is not going to happen.

This has long been discussed here even before ETF approval, the volatility reduction isn’t an ETF thing, many have seen that investors are beginning to become strong holders instead of the usual short term traders we have and this is greatly going to affect the volatility and just other big institutions, ETFs are just here to make their come too fast. So the bitcoin market cycle will continue but with a reduce volatility and that’s why my prediction for bitcoin at $1m is in three halving cycles from now

[DPHOR]

Some people still say bear market will come also but more people think it is over.

I still think it is not over but the volatility is reducing. Bitcoin will not just fall much like before but it may still fall. Only what makes me still wait to determine the price it may fall to is its all time high that we do not know yet.

For now I still think it can fall between $46000/$74000 with $123200 all time high.

The principle can never be changed irrespective of whatever amount Bitcoin soared to or irrespective of any institutions that involve in Bitcoin investment be it through ETFs Bitcoin would still perform it's principles. Do not be surprised that we might witness a bear market that we have never witnessed before and this could be very effective as the way the price increases to expected price that could definitely the way we might witnessed it as well.

For this month I don't expect Bitcoin to cross 123k back rather the candle might likely close within 119k.

[JeffBrad12]

Some people still say bear market will come also but more people think it is over.

I still think it is not over but the volatility is reducing. Bitcoin will not just fall much like before but it may still fall. Only what makes me still wait to determine the price it may fall to is its all time high that we do not know yet.

For now I still think it can fall between $46000/$74000 with $123200 all time high.

Truly agree with this take.

Although i'm myself is kind of doubtful whether there will be bearish cycle because let us be honest, there are so many passive investors from institutional to fund manager that diversify to bitcoin and I think that increases the resilience of bitcoin towards bearish trend but a small pullback in price is not impossible.
ETF outflow sometime happens when market were so bearish and have high fear index, remember when market was trying to sideline retailers by liquidating long position at around 49k? there was such a huge ETF outflow that make people worried.

Now things changed and people become bullish again. Personally I believe 49k is the bottom for next bearish if any.

[btc_angela]

Some people still say bear market will come also but more people think it is over.

I still think it is not over but the volatility is reducing. Bitcoin will not just fall much like before but it may still fall. Only what makes me still wait to determine the price it may fall to is its all time high that we do not know yet.

For now I still think it can fall between $46000/$74000 with $123200 all time high.

Truly agree with this take.
Although i'm myself is kind of doubtful whether there will be bearish cycle because let us be honest, there are so many passive investors from institutional to fund manager that diversify to bitcoin and I think that increases the resilience of bitcoin towards bearish trend but a small pullback in price is not impossible.
ETF outflow sometime happens when market were so bearish and have high fear index, remember when market was trying to sideline retailers by liquidating long position at around 49k? there was such a huge ETF outflow that make people worried.

Now things changed and people become bullish again. Personally I believe 49k is the bottom for next bearish if any.

For me there will still be a bearish market about this massive bull run that we are going to see at the end of the year. But I do agree that as time passes by, maybe volatility will be reduce as the number of Bitcoin is dwindling.

As for what could be the bottom for the bearish trend? we don't know. But one thing is for sure, just years ago, who would have thought that the bearish price will be $75k? I'm asking because that price is still very high for some of us. But then again as I have said, we are going to reach to a point that almost all Bitcoin will be mine already or at least 99% of it. So it might mean a reduce volatility.

[davis196]

There will always be price drops and bear markets in the crypto world. Bitcoin isn't immune to bear markets.
I've heard one crypto "price analyst" saying that 70K USD is the total bottom for Bitcoin and 200K USD is the absolute peak price. I kinda agree with him. The current price is 118K USD, but nobody knows what would happen after several weeks, when Trump really imposes sanctions and 500% tariffs over the countries that are buying Russian oil and gas. Trump always chickens out, but the risk remains. If Trump decides to crash the BTC price, he can definitely do it. After all, he is the main reason behind the Bitcoin price pump from 70K USD to 123K USD in less than one year.

[EluguHcman]

Some people still say bear market will come also but more people think it is over.

I still think it is not over but the volatility is reducing. Bitcoin will not just fall much like before but it may still fall. Only what makes me still wait to determine the price it may fall to is its all time high that we do not know yet.

And while we are still believed to be in the bull season what makes it look we are amidst the bear to even think about?
However, it is important to note that the bull market is still on rather what is going on in the market currently is a short trend of market decline. We are only 4.2% down from the $123,400 ATH which should not be creating such devastating panic with the speculations of a bear market.

Well... We all acts according to our emotions and the instruments used to do our analysis but then to me, the bull is not over and the bear seems yet to come probably by the last phase of the year when the bull will be over.

[bangjoe]

Did you know the reason I asked this question? Bitcoin ETF

I asked because of something like this: Parabolic bull markets and devastating bear markets are over’ — BTC analyst which was uploaded like 10 minutes ago.

If many people are dumping their ETF shares during bear bear market, I do not want to buy such news and what people like Michael Saylor are saying.

Some people still say bear market will come also but more people think it is over.

I still think it is not over but the volatility is reducing. Bitcoin will not just fall much like before but it may still fall. Only what makes me still wait to determine the price it may fall to is its all time high that we do not know yet.

For now I still think it can fall between $46000/$74000 with $123200 all time high.

That is if you calculate that Bitcoin will experience a correction of 50%-70% for the decline that will occur, but I agree more with the current situation that Bitcoin will experience lower volatility rather than continuing to follow the same pattern. Look at how Bitcoin is actually becoming safer compared to previous cycles, which is influenced by more people/institutions holding onto their Bitcoin for the long term.



Look at how Bitcoin's rainbow chart shows that Bitcoin's fluctuations are decreasing over time, unlike in previous cycles.

[boyptc]

Bears are not yet over because the bulls aren't done yet and we're not yet there. People say that bears are over because we're seeing the bull run.

But the difference now if ever the bear market will come is that the price of these bears won't be that much compared on the lowest that it can ever be.

This and last season set a greater standard for the bear market. Compared to 2018 and other past bear markets, they were terrible.

[Webetcoins]

In my observation, I feel like we have covered less than 10% of total bull market of this cycle. It means another 90%+ of growth yet to be unveiled in the remaining days of this year or along with first of next year if bulls manage to hold some more strength.

Bitcoin is about to enter into "middle phase" of its life cycle where you cannot expect bears to dominate but sideways to bullish trend will persist for longer period of times compared to the "early phase" where bears dominated.

Due to strong adaption by government and institutions, we can assume that early phase of bitcoin is going to end at any time and the next phase would be the 'middle phase' which must be the longer one where bitcoin will find its "highest value" and in the next phase where bitcoin will find its "stable price" level.

I do not think bitcoin market will ever see anything below $90k level forever due to above reasons.

[Despairo]

Bitcoin price can down as low as 75% from the ATH.

Bull and bear season are inevitable in Bitcoin, many people aren't diamond hands, instead they want to flip their money by taking advantage over bull and bear season, but that's fine.

The money invested in ETFs are big, so it's can't be underestimated, usually boomers are more panic than young people.

[blomen]

my conclusion every time i think about this is that bull and bear seasons will continue to exist, but they will both be shorter and less impactful. i think we will not see bear seasons lasting years, but bear seasons lasting a few months. i also think that the amount of declines could be 30-35% maximum from the peak.

it's not just a random guess. it's not enough for individual investors to walk away in order for bitcoin to experience losses of 30% now. etfs, corporations and governments can hold bitcoins for years. every bitcoin they hold will increase the value of bitcoin due to the supply shortage. the market cap is higher than ever, so the impact of trades is diminishing.

[Oshosondy]

my conclusion every time i think about this is that bull and bear seasons will continue to exist, but they will both be shorter and less impactful.

This is exactly what I am talking about. If we have been studying the bull versus bear market in every cycle which is usually almost 4 years, we would noticed that the volatility is reducing. Yes I will not against that because that is what that would happen. But many people which I think only want or wish the price to favour themselves are just being too sentimental this time.

[JeffBrad12]

As for what could be the bottom for the bearish trend? we don't know. But one thing is for sure, just years ago, who would have thought that the bearish price will be $75k? I'm asking because that price is still very high for some of us. But then again as I have said, we are going to reach to a point that almost all Bitcoin will be mine already or at least 99% of it. So it might mean a reduce volatility.

The obvious hint as to why the price will stabilize is the shift of bitcoin being held by retail investors with tendency to panic selling is now being held by long term passive investors.
It will not be as stable as stablecoin but I expected BTC to be like gold, a consistent growth over the course of the years with small corrections and pullback.

We shouldn't forget the fact that the previous devastating bearish cycle was also caused by many things including collapses of exchanges. Right now regulation is stricter than ever.

[justdimin]

In my observation, I feel like we have covered less than 10% of total bull market of this cycle. It means another 90%+ of growth yet to be unveiled in the remaining days of this year or along with first of next year if bulls manage to hold some more strength.

Bitcoin is about to enter into "middle phase" of its life cycle where you cannot expect bears to dominate but sideways to bullish trend will persist for longer period of times compared to the "early phase" where bears dominated.

Due to strong adaption by government and institutions, we can assume that early phase of bitcoin is going to end at any time and the next phase would be the 'middle phase' which must be the longer one where bitcoin will find its "highest value" and in the next phase where bitcoin will find its "stable price" level.

I do not think bitcoin market will ever see anything below $90k level forever due to above reasons.

This may actually be true. But no one can guarantee it, I can't say it's 100% true, but I can say that the possibility is there. I am sure that we need to realize things are always possible with bitcoin and that means we could see a parabolic increase. In a few months we could see a huge increase, and maybe even as high as 200k, and alts would be doing the same, doubling and even more to get the alt coin season starting as well.

This is very important and could help with bitcoin a lot. Tons of people who made some mistakes with time, but if we do not buy bitcoin right now, or even worse if we sell bitcoin right now, then we are going to end up with a lot more bad results. It would be the biggest mistake we have done, and we should keep holding.

[aoluain]

My thinking is that the Bull and Bear markets follow to some degree the Bitcoin cycles.

As adoption increases I believe that the cycles become less pronounced and volatility
becomes less pronounced.

There will always be volatility though and there will always be market trends/movements/
reactions to global events but big market shocks like 80% drops are over IMO.

[d5000]

I generally agree with the lowering volatility and opened also a thread about that last year.

But I think it's not only an effect of the ETFs. In fact if you look at the 30-day volatility chart I quoted in the other thread, the moment when volatility got really a strong decrease was some years before the ETFs.

Here's an updated view of that chart:


Souce: https://bitbo.io/volatility/

We see in fact a very gradual reduction: the bull market 2013 had a peak of 14% volatility, the 2017 bull went up to 8,5% volatility, and the 2021 bull already went down to 5,6%. The peak of the 2022-25(?) bull until now was 3,1% volatility. So we see approximately a 40% reduction each cycle.

Until now the record volatility low was 0.76% in August 2023, which was still before the ETFs.

My guess is that this reduction is simply the effect of a gradually increasing liquidity. What still is quite strange to me is that the downside volatility is almost static with 75-85% price loss from the ATH peak. One could imagine people "knowing better" at each cycle that Bitcoin will go up again. Maybe the next cycle is the first one with a really softer crash and without real panic?

On the other hand, both in 2024 and 2025 (after the ETF approval!) we got some short panic dips with almost 30% loss, and that were not even full fledged bear markets. So some nervious/weak hands are still in the market.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

My thinking is that the Bull and Bear markets follow to some degree the Bitcoin cycles.

Yes, I think most of us will agree on that observation as we have seen at least in the last 3 halving that the pattern always happens.

As adoption increases I believe that the cycles become less pronounced and volatility
becomes less pronounced.

There will always be volatility though and there will always be market trends/movements/
reactions to global events but big market shocks like 80% drops are over IMO.

As Bitcoin is an speculative asset, then yeah, there will be volatility as it reacts to news to global events. Like in the pandemic although again, it's a bull run year and so not that much effect but still though, we felt it as we really don't know what's it like to be on that kind of lock down. Nevertheless, as we are back in the norm and there are still some global events like the wars in Russia, the market also react negatively. So volatility will always be present, it might be reduced in the near future but we can't discount the fact that it will always be here no matter what.

[OgNasty]

I’m not one for the “it’s different this time’ train of thought. I think we are going to see a bubble unless it is interrupted by something in the next couple of months. I then think we will see a crash, big enough to force some bitcoin treasury companies to capitulate. I wouldn’t be surprised if that meant $200K by the end of the year and $80K in 2027.