Arthur Hayes bitcoin market diaries

[adaseb]

I was actually about to mention that before I even clicked this thread. I used to read his "essays" on Medium that he would write. They were very funny and informative. But I found that he almost gets nothing correct. He is very smart and has lots of knowledge about the markets having run a crypto exchange and he used to work on a certain Wall Street in Europe or Asia somewhere.

However almost everything he predicts, doesnt happen. I even remember back when he was the CEO of Bitmex. He would say stuff like "Winter is coming for Bitcoin" and bitcoin already bottomed out and was heading up.

[Yaunfitda]

Looking back at his prediction though, we are still half way on the price and as much as we are very optimistic, I don't think that $250k could be breach in this version o the bull run. Perhaps what we are looking is around $130k-$150k the most and not like $150k-$180k. Of course there are still a lot of chance in the next 2 months to bolt out and make another huge run, but $200k could be out of the picture. Sometimes we really need to face the harsh truth that not all predictions by a well known personally is going to happen. Remember the S2F model in 2021 that predicts $100k is going to be our all time high during that run? So the cycle might repeat itself again and that $250k prediction will have to wait for the next bull run.

[bbc.reporter]

I was actually about to mention that before I even clicked this thread. I used to read his "essays" on Medium that he would write. They were very funny and informative. But I found that he almost gets nothing correct. He is very smart and has lots of knowledge about the markets having run a crypto exchange and he used to work on a certain Wall Street in Europe or Asia somewhere.

However almost everything he predicts, doesnt happen. I even remember back when he was the CEO of Bitmex. He would say stuff like "Winter is coming for Bitcoin" and bitcoin already bottomed out and was heading up.

Agreed. Also, when he was the CEO of Bitmex, there was a leak from a private chat where he has said to liquidate all of the stoplosses of the traders who were trading in the exchange because he needs a new Ferrari. It was never confirmed if this was a joke or real, however, after being removed from Bitmex, his trades has become all wrong.

This might be because he cannot see the traders' trades in the orderbook hehehehe. He was only good because he traded against his own customers where he can see their trades on the orderbook hehe.

[adaseb]

I was actually about to mention that before I even clicked this thread. I used to read his "essays" on Medium that he would write. They were very funny and informative. But I found that he almost gets nothing correct. He is very smart and has lots of knowledge about the markets having run a crypto exchange and he used to work on a certain Wall Street in Europe or Asia somewhere.

However almost everything he predicts, doesnt happen. I even remember back when he was the CEO of Bitmex. He would say stuff like "Winter is coming for Bitcoin" and bitcoin already bottomed out and was heading up.

Agreed. Also, when he was the CEO of Bitmex, there was a leak from a private chat where he has said to liquidate all of the stoplosses of the traders who were trading in the exchange because he needs a new Ferrari. It was never confirmed if this was a joke or real, however, after being removed from Bitmex, his trades has become all wrong.

This might be because he cannot see the traders' trades in the orderbook hehehehe. He was only good because he traded against his own customers where he can see their trades on the orderbook hehe.

Yeah I saw that screenshot of the chat. He is a very funny guy, so he most likely did say that. However I don't think he ever traded against his users. His exchange never scammed anyone and it was never hacked. It was actually a fairly safe exchange, much much safer than FTX.

He had no reason to liquidate anyone because his exchange made so much money with commissions that there was no point. Remember the insurance fund? It was huge. There was what? 1000 BTC or maybe 10000 BTC or so in there.