Arthur Hayes bitcoin market diaries

[bbc.reporter]

I reckon that after our favorite uncle Jim's declaration that the market will dump more, we are countertrading this uncle, and the declaration of our favorite NBA basketball player Arthur Hayes' declaration that bitcoin will pump to $250k, we are following this basketball player, this might be our warning signals that the pump might begin to occur.

I very much wish that the bitcoin will pump above the very longterm trendline super resistance on the chart that I have shared before.



Bitcoin’s 22% drop from its January peak has reignited debate over its role as a hedge against financial turmoil.

While gold has soared to $3,000 per ounce, Bitcoin has behaved more like a high-beta tech stock, tumbling alongside the Nasdaq.

But Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom, isn’t fazed.

He believes Bitcoin’s correction is a temporary liquidity squeeze — and that once the cycle turns, it will rally to $250,000 by year-end.

Read in full https://www.dlnews.com/articles/markets/arthur-hayes-bitcoin-bottom-before-equities-then-run-to-250k/

[Oshosondy]

He believes Bitcoin’s correction is a temporary liquidity squeeze — and that once the cycle turns, it will rally to $250,000 by year-end.

All I know is that bitcoin price will still rise and that we are not yet in the best market. Just that there is a correction for now. But I do not know if the price of bitcoin will get to $250000. I know we are going there one day, but it may not be in this bull market. What I speculated before was $170000. But my speculation now is that bitcoin can still increase up to 2 times of the price it decreased to which should be around $150000 if there is no further dip.

[Majestic-milf]

 I share in Arthur Hayes' optimism about the fact that Bitcoin will rise back up despite the setback it's momentarily facing but $250k at the end of the year is huge. Though that's his prediction and even though the market is on a half of sorts because of the shortage of liquidity as he believes, and that the government is intentionally causing a recession, what's to say that after the Fed is being forced to inject funds that it will affect Bitcoin price positively?
 No one is new to this corrections so it's a matter of patiently waiting it out. Its periods like this that financial experts will come up with their opinions either to give hope or to put more fud. My prediction for Bitcoin price by the end of the year is $170.

[hero_the_bossman]

He believes Bitcoin’s correction is a temporary liquidity squeeze — and that once the cycle turns, it will rally to $250,000 by year-end.

All I know is that bitcoin price will still rise and that we are not yet in the best market. Just that there is a correction for now. But I do not know if the price of bitcoin will get to $250000. I know we are going there one day, but it may not be in this bull market. What I speculated before was $170000. But my speculation now is that bitcoin can still increase up to 2 times of the price it decreased to which should be around $150000 if there is no further dip.

Yeah, the ATH can only be guessed currently, but 2025 is the year where the rebound should happen, at least it is very anticipated, currently.

[Yaunfitda]

He believes Bitcoin’s correction is a temporary liquidity squeeze — and that once the cycle turns, it will rally to $250,000 by year-end.

All I know is that bitcoin price will still rise and that we are not yet in the best market. Just that there is a correction for now. But I do not know if the price of bitcoin will get to $250000. I know we are going there one day, but it may not be in this bull market. What I speculated before was $170000. But my speculation now is that bitcoin can still increase up to 2 times of the price it decreased to which should be around $150000 if there is no further dip.

Yeah, the ATH can only be guessed currently, but 2025 is the year where the rebound should happen, at least it is very anticipated, currently.

Yeah, we are still in the bull run so anything can happen for this year. The prediction though might be exaggerated at $250k. And just like the last bull run in 2021, wherein there are a lot of pundits who thought that the price is going to be $100k, but we didn't reach that instead settled for $69k. And if that cycle repeats, then another big price price prediction but then it might go around $150k-$180k. Nevertheless, if that is the price that we anticipated, then by today, we should continue to accumulate as the market still goes on a sideways pattern. But if Hayes is correct, then good for us, many pockets are going to be filled before the end of this year.

[hugeblack]

While gold has soared to $3,000 per ounce, Bitcoin has behaved more like a high-beta tech stock, tumbling alongside the Nasdaq.

I remember these same claims being made in 2021, evolving into statements like Bitcoin being a Ponzi scheme, a bubble, or a high-risk investment. Yet, after all these years, the price remains high. $250,000 may seem exaggerated given the current situation, but I don't think we should be concerned with these fluctuations if we want to invest for the long term.

[Stablexcoin]

He believes Bitcoin’s correction is a temporary liquidity squeeze — and that once the cycle turns, it will rally to $250,000 by year-end.

All I know is that bitcoin price will still rise and that we are not yet in the best market. Just that there is a correction for now. But I do not know if the price of bitcoin will get to $250000. I know we are going there one day, but it may not be in this bull market. What I speculated before was $170000. But my speculation now is that bitcoin can still increase up to 2 times of the price it decreased to which should be around $150000 if there is no further dip.

Yeah, the ATH can only be guessed currently, but 2025 is the year where the rebound should happen, at least it is very anticipated, currently.

Yeah, we are still in the bull run so anything can happen for this year. The prediction though might be exaggerated at $250k. And just like the last bull run in 2021, wherein there are a lot of pundits who thought that the price is going to be $100k, but we didn't reach that instead settled for $69k. And if that cycle repeats, then another big price price prediction but then it might go around $150k-$180k. Nevertheless, if that is the price that we anticipated, then by today, we should continue to accumulate as the market still goes on a sideways pattern. But if Hayes is correct, then good for us, many pockets are going to be filled before the end of this year.

The bull runs you say, for now nothing has shown we are in the bull run, we were but are now out of it. Let me say we are coupling strong blocks involving at first the bull run before hitting rock bottom. 2025 still has its potential, too much if we consistently exaggerate the price of Bitcoin in a couple of months, $250,000 seems much following the few months we have in this year and how quickly the market will switch to the bear part. Everyone has the publicity to share their stance about Bitcoin price, Hayes is known by many for the reason why people talk much about it, several of us did give out our predictions and all stand to be right or wrong when the market executes.

[Bitcoin_Arena]

After the recent drop, the price went below the 200-Day EMA on the daily time frame, and it's still trading right below it, so right now it's hard to tell if that was the bottom. This is because so far it seems to be receiving some bit of resistance. This however does not mean that the price can not break out on an uptrend, we need to just wait for confirmation to be sure that it has bottomed out at around $76K for now.

[STT]

Gold soaring is showing alot of security fears despite currency weakness this is a harshness to the outlook for Bitcoin or any speculative asset.   BTC bottoming could also mean a harder fall, more V shape then stocks will be, it might just be cold comfort.   Hard down hard up might not be journey expected, if you had a roller coaster shaped this way it could break your neck not a pleasant ride.

[pinggoki]

After the recent drop, the price went below the 200-Day EMA on the daily time frame, and it's still trading right below it, so right now it's hard to tell if that was the bottom. This is because so far it seems to be receiving some bit of resistance. This however does not mean that the price can not break out on an uptrend, we need to just wait for confirmation to be sure that it has bottomed out at around $76K for now.

Bitcoin will probably go much lower than expected because it's been pumping for so long and I think that the dip will match the duration that the price pump has done and with that in mind, I do believe that it's going to be followed by a really big price pump and I don't think that anyone should be scared of it because things are going to be just fine, in my opinion, Arthur Hayes is probably doing a conservative estimate on what bitcoin could go for, 250k isn't that far out with how bitcoin's pumped it's prices recently.

[traderethereum]

This situation is just temporary and no need to panic or worry. It is better to enjoy the ride, buy more Bitcoin if you think you need more or calm down with your coffee and everything will be okay.

But if you want to wait for another dip, you need to prepare your money, know how much money you will use and set the target price so you will not be late to buy.

Bitcoin will turn and rally to the new ATH. We will never think how high the new ATH is because that is not what we predicted. The sky is the limit so we must be patient and calm while we see the market move at any price.

[sunsilk]

I hope he's right that Bitcoin will be ending in a quarter mil by the end of this year. It's another quite high price prediction but after seeing Bitcoin reach $100k, the standard and prediction get higher.

We have to see it first back to $100k and make it look low for the next upcoming years. These personalities can give as high numbers as they can but they've been always bullish as they do.

We will never think how high the new ATH is because that is not what we predicted. The sky is the limit so we must be patient and calm while we see the market move at any price.

Exactly. We don't know how high it can be but hoping these are the signs that we're all waiting for.

[coolcoinz]

Hayes is a known gambler, but his predictions are usually wrong. He's usually too bullish when bitcoin is going FOMO and he's too bearish when there are signs of correction.

Usually goes way higher or way lower than the market with his rants and I think it might have something to do with the fact that he's levered himself. When he wants people to dump he makes these bearish predictions, but when he's long himself, he goes crazy with bullish ideas. I wouldn't trust him a bit.

Also, what happened to his 1 m bitcoin prediction from 2023?
https://cryptoslate.com/arthur-hayes-thinks-bitcoin-can-still-hit-1m-this-cycle/
He said it's going to be 1m this cycle and now it's only 250k?

[Powerjumboo]

I welcome his prediction and hope that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 soon. Many people like this person have expressed positive opinions about the price of Bitcoin and have also hoped to see a high potential for the price of Bitcoin, while many famous people have expressed dissatisfaction or disappointment with the price of Bitcoin because they predicted or predicted that Bitcoin would go much lower. However, I also believe that Bitcoin will reach a good position by 2025 and I think the $250,000 price is normal.

[Baofeng]

Hayes is a known gambler, but his predictions are usually wrong. He's usually too bullish when bitcoin is going FOMO and he's too bearish when there are signs of correction.

And we don't know where he gets his number, and most of the time he was too bullish and giving us numbers that really doesn't make sense.

Usually goes way higher or way lower than the market with his rants and I think it might have something to do with the fact that he's levered himself. When he wants people to dump he makes these bearish predictions, but when he's long himself, he goes crazy with bullish ideas. I wouldn't trust him a bit.

Also, what happened to his 1 m bitcoin prediction from 2023?
https://cryptoslate.com/arthur-hayes-thinks-bitcoin-can-still-hit-1m-this-cycle/
He said it's going to be 1m this cycle and now it's only 250k?

I remember that prediction as well, I know that maybe in the future we might really hit $1 million. But for now this numbers seems to be unattainable, that's why I just laugh at those numbers he is throwing.

So he could be one personality in the Bitcoin market that we should really take a bag of salt when we hear his outlandish predictions.

[JeffBrad12]

I have the same outlook to be honest, it's liquidity squeezing as well as sidelining majority of retailer traders that could be a burden when we're going up.
so right now most of leveraged positions are about to get liquidated and once that happens, market will have fuel to make the price pump.

$250k is pretty realistic if you think about it, BTC could be reaching that price point instantly if the short term holders and panic sellers are getting squeezed out of their position and there's only smart money left in the market.
as of current decline, it's pretty much to be expected with so many long positions in the market.

[bbc.reporter]

Hayes is a known gambler, but his predictions are usually wrong. He's usually too bullish when bitcoin is going FOMO and he's too bearish when there are signs of correction.

Usually goes way higher or way lower than the market with his rants and I think it might have something to do with the fact that he's levered himself. When he wants people to dump he makes these bearish predictions, but when he's long himself, he goes crazy with bullish ideas. I wouldn't trust him a bit.

Also, what happened to his 1 m bitcoin prediction from 2023?
https://cryptoslate.com/arthur-hayes-thinks-bitcoin-can-still-hit-1m-this-cycle/
He said it's going to be 1m this cycle and now it's only 250k?

Agreed on your assessment. However, these predictions are always wrong in much of these influencers. Also, I have noticed that on social media, this NBA basketball player's predictions on altcoins have been very much wrong after he has left Bitmex. But before he left Bitmex, he was a very good trader hehehe.

What was the cause of this? I speculate that he was looking at where the stop losses and the limit orders of the Bitmex's users and he is trading against them with this knowledge.

[fuguebtc]

Hayes is a known gambler, but his predictions are usually wrong. He's usually too bullish when bitcoin is going FOMO and he's too bearish when there are signs of correction.

Usually goes way higher or way lower than the market with his rants and I think it might have something to do with the fact that he's levered himself. When he wants people to dump he makes these bearish predictions, but when he's long himself, he goes crazy with bullish ideas. I wouldn't trust him a bit.

Also, what happened to his 1 m bitcoin prediction from 2023?
https://cryptoslate.com/arthur-hayes-thinks-bitcoin-can-still-hit-1m-this-cycle/
He said it's going to be 1m this cycle and now it's only 250k?

We don't necessarily have to take his prediction seriously, but we shouldn't look down it either. Because basically, we all agree that bitcoin is unpredictable and most predictions are just based on personal feelings , people can say whatever they think.

Not only Hayes, Robert Kiyosaki or many other experts have never made an accurate prediction about bitcoin and they keep changing their predictions, even many members on our forum. I remember before Trump became president, many people believed that bitcoin would hit 300k or $500k this year when he made bitcoin a national reserve. But then, most people also started lowering their expectations after what happened to the market. Most predictions now are only in the $150k - $180k range , i no longer see optimism and price predictions above $300k .

He made this prediction in 2021  and the price of bitcoin at that time was around $55k .
https://news.bitcoin.com/rich-dad-poor-dad-robert-kiyosaki-bitcoin-price-1-2-million-5-years/

[Churchillvv]

Everyone speculation especially those economist or financial experts always have to be exaggerated in my opinion only for their mass followers because person I have heard even when I never signed up on this forum that bitcoin will reach an ATH of 250k yet it's another bull run we are not yet there so I believe we should keep our expectations within reachable amount.

Arthur might be correct with his guesses but it's all speculation and no one knows how it's going to play out eventually.

[Text]

Agreed on your assessment. However, these predictions are always wrong in much of these influencers. Also, I have noticed that on social media, this NBA basketball player's predictions on altcoins have been very much wrong after he has left Bitmex. But before he left Bitmex, he was a very good trader hehehe.

What was the cause of this? I speculate that he was looking at where the stop losses and the limit orders of the Bitmex's users and he is trading against them with this knowledge.

Yeah I think it’s funny how his predictions seemed a lot sharper when he was running that almost like having access to all that data gave him a sixth sense for the market. Now that he's out it feels like he’s more of a storyteller than a trader pushing narratives to suit his own positions.

That shift in his predictions kind of says it all. It’s like he’s recalibrating the hype to stay relevant but the market isn’t buying it the same way anymore. Wouldn’t be surprised if he’s still playing leverage games behind the scenes though old habits die hard.