Would You Bet on the PH President Finishing His Term?

[retreat]

-snip-

So before I even think of putting money on it, I’d like to hear your thoughts. Do you think he’ll still manage to serve out the full term despite the scandals? Or is the pressure just going to get too heavy?

Well, the Philippine flood control scandal was indeed massive, causing enormous financial losses for the country and delaying the development of critical infrastructure that was supposed to protect the public from disasters. This scandal also caused public confidence in Bongbong Marcos' leadership to erode. But I see it as a significant political shock to his government, but it hasn't completely deprived him of power, as his support base remains quite solid and he retains strong political support. Therefore, he is still capable of completing his term.

But if you ask me if I'd bet on this, I personally wouldn't be interested in betting on the political situation. It's simply too uncertain and full of factors beyond his control that are difficult to predict.

[Muba20]

I don't know what the real situation is in the Philippines, but I feel that when a public movement is consisted against a government, that government cannot survive. What is the current situation of the current rulers and what are they planning to weaken that movement? Those are important things. If they can suppress the movement or weaken it through any such plan, then that government will survive. Usually, such a situation arises when the general public is dissatisfied with the behavior of the government for a long time. I think the situation that would lead to the overthrow of the government has not yet been created.

[rbynxx]

So before I even think of putting money on it, I’d like to hear your thoughts. Do you think he’ll still manage to serve out the full term despite the scandals? Or is the pressure just going to get too heavy?

I think Kalshi is more favorable to open this kind of bet and tbh I don't think the current legislative body could make it happen cause they're more pro-president and likely he'll finish his term. Well, we're still likely at the 50% from now because the investigation is still ongoing and hoping it will caught these big fishes and we hope so.

[ultrloa]

So before I even think of putting money on it, I’d like to hear your thoughts. Do you think he’ll still manage to serve out the full term despite the scandals? Or is the pressure just going to get too heavy?

I think Kalshi is more favorable to open this kind of bet and tbh I don't think the current legislative body could make it happen cause they're more pro-president and likely he'll finish his term. Well, we're still likely at the 50% from now because the investigation is still ongoing and hoping it will caught these big fishes and we hope so.

Looking at the rally happened recently it seems that people sentiment split in half and lots of people didn't call for the President resignation but rather accountability of those involve on recent corruptions happening in Philippines.

So most likely with those situation there's good chance for current President to finish his term since lots of entities doesn't want his Vice President to assume the office since maybe there are lots of parties will be in trouble if that case happen. I don't like to bet in this situation since its so risky since we don't have any idea what's going to happen in future.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

In a country where even the government are corrupt and some arms of the government are also corrupt, I think the president will finish the tenor, because he will also try to bribe his way through it with the power he has, unless if the pressure mounted on him outweighs his plans. Before you bet, you need to also follow up with the latest happening going on there otherwise you can also lose the bet if you are just looking at odd.

[Lanatsa]

I’ve been following the news here in the Philippines and honestly, things are heating up. The flood control scandal is all over the place, trillions of pesos allegedly stolen through ghost projects and substandard works. People are already mad, and the trust in government feels like it’s at an all-time low.

It got me thinking… if sites like Polymarket or other prediction markets open a line on whether the President will finish his term or not, I’d be interested to see the odds. Might even place a bet if the line looks good.

Of course, betting on politics is always tricky, anything can happen. But with the mood on the ground right now, I can’t help but wonder if there’s real value in a market like this.

So before I even think of putting money on it, I’d like to hear your thoughts. Do you think he’ll still manage to serve out the full term despite the scandals? Or is the pressure just going to get too heavy?

If you ask me i think he’ll probably still finish the term scandals like this are heavy and they really shake people’s trust but history shows leaders usually hang on unless the political elites themselves decide to cut ties the masses can get loud and angry but without the power players shifting their support it’s hard to push someone out and that’s the part most people forget real change at that level doesn’t just happen because of outrage it happens when those with influence see their own interests at risk.

What i do see happening is that his grip gets weaker over time more compromises will be made more backroom deals will surface and you’ll probably see a handful of allies sacrificed to ease the tension throwing people under the bus is one of the oldest tricks in the book when the goal is survival scandals like this create fractures in the inner circle and he will likely spend the rest of the term just trying to keep the cracks from spreading too far. The pressure is real and every new headline chips away at his legitimacy but stepping down or being forced out feels unlikely unless something far bigger and more explosive stacks on top of this right now it looks more like a slow erosion than a sudden collapse so yeah the heat will keep building and people will stay angry but my bet is that he rides it out bruised battered and maybe even isolated yet still holding onto the position until the very end.

[STT]

I have no doubt on the corruption because thats not rare in government but the idea he has to leave is not certain.   You have corruption as an actual means of staying in government because he paid off so many people they will all work to make sure he stays there.
   This fine detail is vital to your bet because I lack this standing here as an outsider, I can only ask friends with family still in Philippines and thats 3rd hand information at that point and maybe not the best bet for me to make.

Marcos is an infamous surname associated with corruption, globally that was famous decades ago so
I wonder how he got into leadership.   I presume corruption got him into office to some extent and also the voters were swayed by a famous name, for that reason I couldn't recommend taking the bet without some very good odds and so allowing a small wager.

[bettercrypto]

I'm the only one who can say that once something bad happens to FPRRD in the Hague, I'm sure that's the end of BBM, that's what I see there,
because there's a big chance that if this happens, the pnp and afp can turn around in my opinion.

Especially now, it seems that FPRRD's condition is already in jeopardy, he already has Dementia according to his Lawyer in the Hague, if BBM really makes a wrong move that will arouse enough anger from the people, the Filipino people will surely flock to him and the police
and afp won't be able to stop it.

[rbynxx]

So before I even think of putting money on it, I’d like to hear your thoughts. Do you think he’ll still manage to serve out the full term despite the scandals? Or is the pressure just going to get too heavy?

I think Kalshi is more favorable to open this kind of bet and tbh I don't think the current legislative body could make it happen cause they're more pro-president and likely he'll finish his term. Well, we're still likely at the 50% from now because the investigation is still ongoing and hoping it will caught these big fishes and we hope so.

Looking at the rally happened recently it seems that people sentiment split in half and lots of people didn't call for the President resignation but rather accountability of those involve on recent corruptions happening in Philippines.

So most likely with those situation there's good chance for current President to finish his term since lots of entities doesn't want his Vice President to assume the office since maybe there are lots of parties will be in trouble if that case happen. I don't like to bet in this situation since its so risky since we don't have any idea what's going to happen in future.

Exactly. The rally was to protest and make those accountable behind bars. If there would be a bet if the President will step down or be impeached that's likely not going to happen. I don't want to comment in regards to the Vice President but I think she'd be one of the choices to run for the 2028 Philippine Election and I think it's more favorable to vote for the election rather than this inquiry by the OP.

[ultrloa]

I think Kalshi is more favorable to open this kind of bet and tbh I don't think the current legislative body could make it happen cause they're more pro-president and likely he'll finish his term. Well, we're still likely at the 50% from now because the investigation is still ongoing and hoping it will caught these big fishes and we hope so.

Looking at the rally happened recently it seems that people sentiment split in half and lots of people didn't call for the President resignation but rather accountability of those involve on recent corruptions happening in Philippines.

So most likely with those situation there's good chance for current President to finish his term since lots of entities doesn't want his Vice President to assume the office since maybe there are lots of parties will be in trouble if that case happen. I don't like to bet in this situation since its so risky since we don't have any idea what's going to happen in future.

Exactly. The rally was to protest and make those accountable behind bars. If there would be a bet if the President will step down or be impeached that's likely not going to happen. I don't want to comment in regards to the Vice President but I think she'd be one of the choices to run for the 2028 Philippine Election and I think it's more favorable to vote for the election rather than this inquiry by the OP.

If people will share same sentiments and their intention is to make their President resign then its going to happen anytime or soon. But since the protester share different view and some of them call out for resignation then some don't want since they are just going after for accountability. Then with this there's really nothing will happen on this and calling out for resignation will not gonna happen.

I believe the Philippine President can finish his term, but he won't leave any good legacy due to those corruptions happen and that will put a big shame on his name. Maybe he realize those mistake he made once he's not setting in his office.

[Wapfika]

So before I even think of putting money on it, I’d like to hear your thoughts. Do you think he’ll still manage to serve out the full term despite the scandals? Or is the pressure just going to get too heavy?

This kind of bet is very hard to justify the result because the word finish the scandal is very broad. The issue might died without the main culprit being arrested since it’s a popular ending that only small fish punished while main culprit get away.

I wonder what will be the basis on this bet to conclude as win. The current administration might just manipulate the case and pin down the issue to the wrong person.

Also, ending a scandal is very hard to do because there’s always someone on the government or people that is dissatisfied on the result.

[DPHOR]

I think this are the event polymarket loves listing on their site and there are every possibility for them to list it if the news goes viral. Before betting you should try to know the general performance of the president if he is doing well or not. Like it is now, you people are the ones who can really tells more about the president whether he would rule again for next tenor or not and it's from his previous leadership you would know whether he will finish or not, maybe if he has a strong opposition.

[Orpichukwu]

If not for the forum I wouldn't have known that the poly market exists...betting on the options that I find there are very uninteresting to me especially political events..this might be one of the most difficult things to bet on especially if that country that you live in practices a dictatorship rule, power can be handed over to anyone and it might be someone that the citizens least expect..it's very risky

The forum has done a great job by bringing it to the open, but you could have still known about them sooner or later; they got popular on social media during US presidential election voting… They even did not just stop with political events; they also go far with religious and other stuff which they consider to be interesting to their customers.

[Findingnemo]

It got me thinking… if sites like Polymarket or other prediction markets open a line on whether the President will finish his term or not, I’d be interested to see the odds.

Request that through a submission:
https://docs.polymarket.com/polymarket-learn/markets/how-are-markets-created

Also, odds in a market are determined by the people trading options, so it depends a loton  who puts their money where their mouth is.

Any idea, when they will create such request I mean based on the number of requests for the same event, or they just pick one event with less number of requests just because they feel it is interesting?

I tried opening the link, not loading up and I will try again and see if I can find the relevant information there.

[shasan]

I’ve been following the news here in the Philippines and honestly, things are heating up. The flood control scandal is all over the place, trillions of pesos allegedly stolen through ghost projects and substandard works. People are already mad, and the trust in government feels like it’s at an all-time low.

It got me thinking… if sites like Polymarket or other prediction markets open a line on whether the President will finish his term or not, I’d be interested to see the odds. Might even place a bet if the line looks good.

Of course, betting on politics is always tricky, anything can happen. But with the mood on the ground right now, I can’t help but wonder if there’s real value in a market like this.

So before I even think of putting money on it, I’d like to hear your thoughts. Do you think he’ll still manage to serve out the full term despite the scandals? Or is the pressure just going to get too heavy?

I would bet against it because in maximum case the goverment usually do not leave until there is any revolution or election. So, the chance being winer will be more than to be loser. Though I do not have any idea of the background yet I would love to bet against the finishing their terms though I might research aboput the situation of the government.

[coin-investor]

I would bet against it because in maximum case the goverment usually do not leave until there is any revolution or election. So, the chance being winer will be more than to be loser. Though I do not have any idea of the background yet I would love to bet against the finishing their terms though I might research aboput the situation of the government.

The Philippine president will likely finish his term. There were demands and a protest rally, but they never got the support they needed to make the president go down. The people have had enough of people power protest rallies, when the likely replacement is also a corrupt official.

But I expect more rallies and calls from the opposition. They are running out of time because their leader is on the verge of being impeached, so they need to prevent it. But people want honest officials, and they want officials with questionable dealings to face trials.

So expect a lot of political news, but the president will likely keep his position because what he is doing right now has the approval of the majority of people.

[shasan]

The Philippine president will likely finish his term. There were demands and a protest rally, but they never got the support they needed to make the president go down. The people have had enough of people power protest rallies, when the likely replacement is also a corrupt official.

But I expect more rallies and calls from the opposition. They are running out of time because their leader is on the verge of being impeached, so they need to prevent it. But people want honest officials, and they want officials with questionable dealings to face trials.

So expect a lot of political news, but the president will likely keep his position because what he is doing right now has the approval of the majority of people.

The president of any country or the chief person of any country does not want to leave his/her power until they have a way to stay in his/her position. And in the same way, the president of the Philippines will not leave power. The rally won't work if there is no revolution by a lot of people who will disturb the regular work of the government.

[qwertyup23]

<..snip..>

So before I even think of putting money on it, I’d like to hear your thoughts. Do you think he’ll still manage to serve out the full term despite the scandals? Or is the pressure just going to get too heavy?

If you have been following the news lately, the incumbent President set the ball rolling in exposing the flood control corruption here in the Philippines. When a certain Senator also exposed ghost projects during his privilege speech, this began a nationwide investigation which also gave birth to the Independent Commission on Infrastructure (ICI) which is responsible for handling all the investigative work and the proper filing of charges to these responsible individuals/officials.

The question that OP posited is- will the PH President finish his term? Personally, the answer is YES due to various reasons which will be stated below.

First, the President is considered as an impeachable officer. Meaning, he cannot be removed from office from mere protests; there must be an impeachable offense committed by him which must be proven. Second, the President is allegedly exposing all the past administration's failures and corruption from these scandals which ignited thousands of trolls against him.
Lastly, I cannot fathom a scenario where a President would be removed from office when he is also actively fighting against corruption in the first place.

[STT]

Seems like an easy bet to me if you are local to the jurisdiction of this President.  You bet because you are already at a risk of gain or loss so you might as well hedge that risk in some small way.
  Its a luxury to put a number to your worries and attempt to consider the conundrum logically with the idea of gain rather then running yourself in circles and only suffering worry.  Its an outlet, a game and I only half seriously mention the idea of a hedge or hope to gain from your unpopular president's actions.

[Asuspawer09]

This is getting huge since no criminal or theft is still getting jailed, If im not mistaken its already more than a hundred days and there has still no one getting jailed, even though the evidence is already in front of us. After the flood issues, we see deforestation issues as well on Rizal, Cebu etc. A bunch of mining issues as well in Nueva Ecija if im not mistaken there are a lot of people suffering from this thing, which surely is just because of money. I mean its really difficult to depend if they are the one selling this forest, obviously they were paid millions and billions, and the people are the ones taking the suffering. The latest thing was the typhoon that killed a lot of people in Cebu.

I think that he might still finish this term, I wouldn't bet on it, despite this scandal, but when I see how the people react to the revelation of the flood control projects, I really see that if the president ignore this this is going to be a disaster and huge, there might be 2nd People power revolution, but I still think that hes gonna finish this term. But a lot of cases for sure if going to be filed, not to mention the engineers, congressmen, senators, etc.