Would You Bet on the PH President Finishing His Term?

[Russlenat]

I’ve been following the news here in the Philippines and honestly, things are heating up. The flood control scandal is all over the place, trillions of pesos allegedly stolen through ghost projects and substandard works. People are already mad, and the trust in government feels like it’s at an all-time low.

It got me thinking… if sites like Polymarket or other prediction markets open a line on whether the President will finish his term or not, I’d be interested to see the odds. Might even place a bet if the line looks good.

Of course, betting on politics is always tricky, anything can happen. But with the mood on the ground right now, I can’t help but wonder if there’s real value in a market like this.

So before I even think of putting money on it, I’d like to hear your thoughts. Do you think he’ll still manage to serve out the full term despite the scandals? Or is the pressure just going to get too heavy?

[BitGoba]

So before I even think of putting money on it, I’d like to hear your thoughts. Do you think he’ll still manage to serve out the full term despite the scandals? Or is the pressure just going to get too heavy?

Its hard to say how it will all turn out. The scandals are serious, but in politics its often the behind the scenes deals that decide things, not just what we see in the media. The best thing is to follow the situation week by week and see where it goes, rather than making any firm predictions

[Odusko]

To make this discussion more interesting, you can go further to tell us which line will you be betting on, because i will be interesting for us to know that so that we can tell why you have such mindset about your present government.
If i am to bet on that regardless that i am not from the Philippines, but i understand how politicians works, most especially the ones in office, is very hard to be able to get them out since their already have this corruption game well planed even befor the get to power, so if i am betting i will definitely choose the president finishing his tenure.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

I’ve been following the news here in the Philippines and honestly, things are heating up. The flood control scandal is all over the place, trillions of pesos allegedly stolen through ghost projects and substandard works. People are already mad, and the trust in government feels like it’s at an all-time low.

It got me thinking… if sites like Polymarket or other prediction markets open a line on whether the President will finish his term or not, I’d be interested to see the odds. Might even place a bet if the line looks good.

Of course, betting on politics is always tricky, anything can happen. But with the mood on the ground right now, I can’t help but wonder if there’s real value in a market like this.

So before I even think of putting money on it, I’d like to hear your thoughts. Do you think he’ll still manage to serve out the full term despite the scandals? Or is the pressure just going to get too heavy?

I don't live in the Philippines and neither do I have anyone there who can brief me on what exactly is happening in that country, so, as a gambler, if I see a betting line asking if the of the Philippines will or would complete his tenure in office or not, I will not be placing any bet on such since I am not sure or have any slight idea what the possible outcome of this bet will become..

Another thing again I will be considering is date, for how long will the bet have to run before the platform hosting the bet decide it's a good time to conclude an outcome?, if there is no stated time period that the bet will or would run, what this mean is that the host platform may decide to keep the bet open until either one of this two happens..
1. The president steps down, meaning those who bet on him not completing his tenure are the winners.
2. Until the president's tenure is over, which means those who betted on him completely his tenure are the winners..

But for the later, how many gamblers can actually be willing and ready to tie their money down on a bet like this for over two years or more depending on how much time the president still have to spend in office? This is another reason why I won't be betting on such a bet as this.

[Porfirii]

I don't live in the Philippines either and as I don't know about politics there I have no special interest in any political party accessing to power or any President finishing his term early. And, as long as there are gambling platforms that allow to bet on things like these, and it is legal in many jurisdictions, I'm in doubt if I'm asked whether it should or shouldn't be done. But not only with this, but with many other political bets, and perhaps due to ignorance, I am afraid that in some cases where a lot of money is involved a conflict of interest may be created, distorting the result.

Political bets at this scale is something so new that it offers many opportunities and threats, many of which cannot be foreseen.

[Russlenat]

To make this discussion more interesting, you can go further to tell us which line will you be betting on, because i will be interesting for us to know that so that we can tell why you have such mindset about your present government.
If i am to bet on that regardless that i am not from the Philippines, but i understand how politicians works, most especially the ones in office, is very hard to be able to get them out since their already have this corruption game well planed even befor the get to power, so if i am betting i will definitely choose the president finishing his tenure.

Since you asked, I’d bet on the line that the president won’t finish his term, either he’ll be impeached or ousted by the people. The rally today is still ongoing, and some Gen Z are causing trouble, destroying a few vehicles and properties. It’s not as bad as what happened in Nepal, but I believe this is just the beginning.

For context, corruption is everywhere. The president has an impeachable offense when he signed the GAB (General Appropriations Bill), which is packed with so many budget insertions that end up going to corrupt projects.

[danherbias07]

Will you bet for him to resign?

I am also following the news in the Philippines, and I can say it has become chaos right now. It's difficult to trust the government when so much corruption is happening and it is coming from different people who are working as government officials.

If ever a line opens up that he will resign, I might also bet on it. I believe this can never be stopped easily, unlike other corruption news, where people just let it cool down and don't even remember it at all. This is different and trusted senators are saying they won't just give this up too.

[stompix]

It got me thinking… if sites like Polymarket or other prediction markets open a line on whether the President will finish his term or not, I’d be interested to see the odds.

Request that through a submission:
https://docs.polymarket.com/polymarket-learn/markets/how-are-markets-created

Also, odds in a market are determined by the people trading options, so it depends a loton  who puts their money where their mouth is.

[Dave1]

So before I even think of putting money on it, I’d like to hear your thoughts. Do you think he’ll still manage to serve out the full term despite the scandals? Or is the pressure just going to get too heavy?

Unless the Filipino turns into their "People Power" or a military coup to removed Bong Bong Marcos in the office, then maybe he can continue and finished his term. But so far I think Filipinos are still in the 50/50 here. Although there are a lot of issues in the country, but it seems that they are still divided. Yes, I read that they have a rally this day, but it will be enough though?

There should be something that will support this cause, maybe the Duterte supporter. But currently, the former President in under the custody and VP Duterte has been trying to be impeached. Something will have to wake up the Filipinos just like what happened in Nepal or Indonesia recently.

[Satofan44]

Such political events are pretty extreme and somewhat rare. I would not make bets on stuff like that using any serious quantity of money as it is simply unpredictable. It is closer to spinning slots than sports betting.

So before I even think of putting money on it, I’d like to hear your thoughts. Do you think he’ll still manage to serve out the full term despite the scandals? Or is the pressure just going to get too heavy?

He shouldn't but that does not mean that he won't. We've seen a recent example in Nepal, it would be worthwhile to oust the president in PH if he refuses to step down. However, that is entirely up to the people.

Request that through a submission:
https://docs.polymarket.com/polymarket-learn/markets/how-are-markets-created

Also, odds in a market are determined by the people trading options, so it depends a loton  who puts their money where their mouth is.

It would be interesting to see the opinion of people who dare to put money on such events.

[₿itcoin]

I won't bet blindly. This is actually a real heatwave because I see massive protests, arrests, and even the resignation of top lawmakers. On the other hand, there is also strong state pressure to keep it under control, independent commissions & the military saying they won't interfere, so the outcome will largely depend on the investigation and the defections of the elite.

The big things to consider here are the size of the protests, how long they can last, whether powerful allies will defect, the strength of the investigation, as far as I know Marcos has set up an independent commission, and whether the military will declare martial law, all of which could turn the tide of the movement in any direction. In my opinion, the stability of the elite should be reflected more than the anger in the streets, however you know the dictator govt in Sri Lanka & Bangladesh has recently fallen due to student protests. Anyway, the bets in politics are always spicy and risky.

[Ziskinberg]

Will you bet for him to resign?

I don’t think the president will resign. Even if he’s guilty, he won’t step down because he knows that once the vice president takes over who isn’t his ally, she’ll find a way to put the corrupt officials behind bars.

The best chance he’ll be removed is through people power. If that happens, he might end up facing the same fate his father experienced during the martial law days in the Philippines.

[coin-investor]

So before I even think of putting money on it, I’d like to hear your thoughts. Do you think he’ll still manage to serve out the full term despite the scandals? Or is the pressure just going to get too heavy?

I’m confident he will finish his term. As a Marcos, he still enjoys the support of many sectors, including the Reds and the other party, the kakampinks. The alternative is not appealing, which is another Duterte.

And let us not forget, he is the one who initiated the drive to expose the anomalous flood control projects, and so far, he is doing well by establishing an independent commission to prosecute those involved in the flood control scams.

I don’t want him to step down; I want him to finish his term. Only the opposition is calling for him to step down, not the general public. I want him to finish what he started, and that is prosecuting and putting these criminals in jail which will be his greatest legacy.

[mindrust]

When a country gets that corrupt, it means the rulers of the country is practically a mafia now and mafia only goes away by force. They don't leave their government positions voluntarily. If the Filipinos want to take their county back they have to do the same thing what people in Nepal did. Crack some heads, burn some buildings. Only then you'll have a chance. Otherwise these corrupt people will keep robbing you.

Would I bet on such event? I wouldn't because I don't know anything about the politics in Philippines. I am not particularly interested in any event that happens in Philippines and that means I can't come up with an educated guess... It would be no different than throwing a dice for me. It is safer to make a bet on the global events where I can collect more data as many more people are speaking about it so It becomes easier to make a correct prediction. PH? Can't even find it on a map probably.

[Churchillvv]

If it gets on the polymarket and the youths in Philippines gets too mad at it, it might end up to be too heavy on him just like the youths of Nepal did with their government but personally I wouldn’t even make an attempt to bet or gamble regarding politics especially since I’m not from the Philippines or anywhere close to have much information regarding the politics of the country and how much efforts will be put in if there would be a change of government.

Additionally, here in my country it very difficult to remove someone who is already in sit even with some level of pressure so if it’s similar to your country maybe the president will likely finish his term yet nothing will change. But I wouldn’t still bet on it because of my lack of knowledge.

[Slow death]

I wouldn't bet because I don't know the politics of the Philippines, I also doubt very much that there would be many people betting, that's why in my opinion the site wouldn't add this market, because not all Filipinos would bet and people from other countries would also hardly bet because they don't know the politics of the Philippines. It is difficult to predict that the president would fall because of corruption. In Asia, countries where the president falls because of scandal are Japan and South Korea. In the remaining countries, corruption is unlikely to make the president resign.

[Charles-Tim]

So before I even think of putting money on it, I’d like to hear your thoughts. Do you think he’ll still manage to serve out the full term despite the scandals? Or is the pressure just going to get too heavy?

Philippines is not like United States that most people will know about their politics on this forum and all over the world. So, do not expect much good information from people that are not from Philippines on this forum. Like me, I have no idea about your president. I do not even know his name until now.

[kotajikikox]

So before I even think of putting money on it, I’d like to hear your thoughts. Do you think he’ll still manage to serve out the full term despite the scandals? Or is the pressure just going to get too heavy?

It will just be two more years before the next election and I think that he would continue his term. Betting on political instances can be difficult because it is complex. If he were to resign, who would replace him? The vice president? The same ones with corruption allegations? It is a whole mess right now.

[AmoreJaz]

So before I even think of putting money on it, I’d like to hear your thoughts. Do you think he’ll still manage to serve out the full term despite the scandals? Or is the pressure just going to get too heavy?

It will just be two more years before the next election and I think that he would continue his term. Betting on political instances can be difficult because it is complex. If he were to resign, who would replace him? The vice president? The same ones with corruption allegations? It is a whole mess right now.

I don't think he will resign as he is not directly implicated in their current issue. I would say, a lot of these politicians who were allegedly part of this huge corruption will resign not the President. So if there is a betting line, I would bet on finishing his term. He is not directly involved in the current issues of corruption. Mostly are those contractors as well as lower politicians who were receiving the bribes not the President itself. So I don't think he needs to resign. What he can do is overhaul the lineup of his officials as people are clamoring for transparency and change of government. A lot of protests are happening in this country because people are not blind anymore, as they can read the sources and images over cyberspace.

[Davidvictorson]

So before I even think of putting money on it, I’d like to hear your thoughts. Do you think he’ll still manage to serve out the full term despite the scandals? Or is the pressure just going to get too heavy?

I think it is enough to think about this type of betting with our new predictions of everything. Will the PH president finish his term? Well before I will put my money I will first like to know if PH is a country where public office holders willing resign after scandals because in my country, the public office holders don't. So if your country is like mine in this instance, then there is no need to bet on it but if it is the opposite and it has ever happened in the past, it is a likely indicator that it will happened and I will put my down money. Obviously it is up to you to answer and determine it.