Arthur Hayes bitcoin market diaries

[adaseb]

I was actually about to mention that before I even clicked this thread. I used to read his "essays" on Medium that he would write. They were very funny and informative. But I found that he almost gets nothing correct. He is very smart and has lots of knowledge about the markets having run a crypto exchange and he used to work on a certain Wall Street in Europe or Asia somewhere.

However almost everything he predicts, doesnt happen. I even remember back when he was the CEO of Bitmex. He would say stuff like "Winter is coming for Bitcoin" and bitcoin already bottomed out and was heading up.

[Yaunfitda]

Looking back at his prediction though, we are still half way on the price and as much as we are very optimistic, I don't think that $250k could be breach in this version o the bull run. Perhaps what we are looking is around $130k-$150k the most and not like $150k-$180k. Of course there are still a lot of chance in the next 2 months to bolt out and make another huge run, but $200k could be out of the picture. Sometimes we really need to face the harsh truth that not all predictions by a well known personally is going to happen. Remember the S2F model in 2021 that predicts $100k is going to be our all time high during that run? So the cycle might repeat itself again and that $250k prediction will have to wait for the next bull run.

[bbc.reporter]

I was actually about to mention that before I even clicked this thread. I used to read his "essays" on Medium that he would write. They were very funny and informative. But I found that he almost gets nothing correct. He is very smart and has lots of knowledge about the markets having run a crypto exchange and he used to work on a certain Wall Street in Europe or Asia somewhere.

However almost everything he predicts, doesnt happen. I even remember back when he was the CEO of Bitmex. He would say stuff like "Winter is coming for Bitcoin" and bitcoin already bottomed out and was heading up.

Agreed. Also, when he was the CEO of Bitmex, there was a leak from a private chat where he has said to liquidate all of the stoplosses of the traders who were trading in the exchange because he needs a new Ferrari. It was never confirmed if this was a joke or real, however, after being removed from Bitmex, his trades has become all wrong.

This might be because he cannot see the traders' trades in the orderbook hehehehe. He was only good because he traded against his own customers where he can see their trades on the orderbook hehe.

[adaseb]

I was actually about to mention that before I even clicked this thread. I used to read his "essays" on Medium that he would write. They were very funny and informative. But I found that he almost gets nothing correct. He is very smart and has lots of knowledge about the markets having run a crypto exchange and he used to work on a certain Wall Street in Europe or Asia somewhere.

However almost everything he predicts, doesnt happen. I even remember back when he was the CEO of Bitmex. He would say stuff like "Winter is coming for Bitcoin" and bitcoin already bottomed out and was heading up.

Agreed. Also, when he was the CEO of Bitmex, there was a leak from a private chat where he has said to liquidate all of the stoplosses of the traders who were trading in the exchange because he needs a new Ferrari. It was never confirmed if this was a joke or real, however, after being removed from Bitmex, his trades has become all wrong.

This might be because he cannot see the traders' trades in the orderbook hehehehe. He was only good because he traded against his own customers where he can see their trades on the orderbook hehe.

Yeah I saw that screenshot of the chat. He is a very funny guy, so he most likely did say that. However I don't think he ever traded against his users. His exchange never scammed anyone and it was never hacked. It was actually a fairly safe exchange, much much safer than FTX.

He had no reason to liquidate anyone because his exchange made so much money with commissions that there was no point. Remember the insurance fund? It was huge. There was what? 1000 BTC or maybe 10000 BTC or so in there.

[bbc.reporter]

@adaseb. Do not underestimate these people. The cryptospace is not very strictly regulated yet. We should not be shocked if there are market makers that are manipulating the market and who are targeting everyone's trading positions.

In any case, Arthur Hayes has published another addition for his dear diary heheeheh. This appears to be bullish, however, he is wrong much of the time.



There are two ways the Fed can ensure that there is ample cash in the system to facilitate the repos needed by RV funds to purchase dog shit treasuries. The first is to create banking reserves, by buying securities from banks. This is the textbook definition of QE. The second is to lend freely to the repo market via the SRF.

As I have said many times, QE is a dirty word. Even the most financially illiterate plebe now understands QE = money printing = inflation. When inflation bites, the average citizen votes for the opposition party. Given that Trump and Buffalo Bill Bessent want to run the economy hot, they don’t want to be blamed for the high inflation a credit fueled economic expansion will generate. Therefore, the Fed will do everything it can, with a straight face, to proclaim that its policy mix is not QE and does not stoke the fires of inflation. Ultimately, that means that the SRF is the conduit through which printed money enters the global financial system as opposed to using QE to create more banking reserves.

This will buy some time, but eventually the exponential expansion of treasury debt issuance will force the repeated use of the SRF. Remember that not only does Buffalo Bill Bessent need to issue $2 trillion annually to fund the government, he also must issue trillions more to roll over maturing debt. Stealth QE will begin shortly. I don’t know when it will begin. But if the current money market conditions persist, the treasury debt pile grows exponentially, the SRF balance must grow as the lender of last resort. As SRF balances grow, the amount of fiat dollars in the world expands as well. This phenomenon will reignite the Bitcoin bull market.

Between now and when stealth QE begins, one has to husband capital. Expect a choppy market especially until the US government shutdown ends. The treasury via its debt auctions is borrowing money (dollar liquidity negative) but not spending it (dollar liquidity positive). The Treasury General Account is above the $850 billion target by ~$150bn, and this extra liquidity won’t get released into the markets until the government reopens. This liquidity drain is one reason for the current softness in the crypto markets. Given that the four-year cycle anniversary of the 2021 Bitcoin all-time-high is nigh, many will mistake this period of market weakness and ennui as the top and dump their stack. That’s assuming they weren’t deaded in the altcoin collapse a few weeks back. That is a mistake, the dollar money market plumbing doesn’t lie. This corner of the market is shrouded in obtuse jargon, but once you translate the lingo into print money or destroy money, it becomes quite easy to know how to dance.

Read in full https://cryptohayes.medium.com/hallelujah-9eb355974421