Do you think U.S. Marshall auction 29,656.51306529 bitcoins will affect price?

[Zohann]

Market psychology will value the coins at the price that the auction goes for.  Once such a large amount of BTC is bought at just over market.  Who would sell their BTC for less?

There is no real reason for any bidder to bid BTC above the market value of bitcoin. There are simply not enough bidders/potential buyers to cause a need to bid above the market price.

One look at the list of bidders, and you know they want the coins... are they going to place a bid 5% under market?  10%?  and risk not getting them?  Or bid 1$ over market and ensure they get them.  They try to buy that amount on the exchanges and it'll move the market.  plus they won't get the free advertising.. being interviewed as the winner of the coins, and publishing the market price.

There is no guarantee that they would win the auction at any price.

The sad fact is that the additional supply being brought into the market will likely not be able to be absorbed by a normal amount of demand.

Most investors in bitcoin do not need to attract attention

Except for the names on their that would want the advertising... Namely Coinbase, Second Market, and Digital BTC... They would love to be interviewed on CNBC and would tweet the shit out of it I would hope.

[RomertL]

Well I'm holding until the auction is over, then look to buy some more. I think may investors are thinking like that, that's why the price hasn't changed that much lately (well, not much by Bitcoin-standards anyway.) It's too hard to predict what will happen with the price after the auction, but most people think something will happen. So they rather wait to after the auction to buy in

We've had some good news during that time that normally would affect the price at least a little bit. I think price will go down little bit after the auction then up towards 700 when people notice they didn't get dumped directly on the exchanges. Pure speculation of course but this is the speculation forum after all .

Will the winner/winners be disclosed by the way? If so I guess the price could either go up or down directly following the auction depending on the winner: Is he assumed to be a long term Bitcoin believer (holding/investing, price up), don't care about bitcoin but want to make money short term (selling gradually, price down slightly) or after a quick buck/stupid (selling all at once, price down quite a lot)

[BetMoose]

indeed

Anybody that has ever been to a well advertised estate auction or real estate auction knows this one simple fact:

Auctions will sell any item, whether it's a house or grandma's old furniture, for at least a few percent OVER what it's worth.

The competitive nature of auctions in combination with the publicity this auction is garnering? Yeah, there's no doubt in my mind these coins are going to sell for slightly over market value.

Dumped on the market? Not likely.

If I was a betting man, which I am, I'd say within a week after the auction results, the price of BTC goes up 2-5%, at least.

In fact, I'll wager 1 BTC that it does.

Anyone want to take that bet?

Hi Devin, put it up on betmoose.com - it's free and you'll get your 1 BTC back in full if no one bets against you. Make sure you clarify your decision logic and source carefully as 2-3% is very borderline in terms of BTC volatility. I think I know someone who may want to match it.

There's a similar bet here, though that's the auction itself, not about what happens afterwards.

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SilkRoad coins will be sold above market valueOptions: Yes | No