Do you think U.S. Marshall auction 29,656.51306529 bitcoins will affect price?

[fryarminer]

Yes, it will affect price for sure, either directly or indirectly. The direct way would be the auction winners dumping it on the markets or exchanges. The indirect way is people preemptively sell their bitcoins in anticipation for the dump after the auction. This might have already happened with the recent dip. Btw, this thread belongs in the speculation subforum.

I'm not so sure that the final price will be lower (or quite lower) than the current market price.
In that case, there is no reason to dump them on the market.

IMVHO, the ending auction price could be even higher.
I don't have a precise idea but I think it could be possible if we start to consider, in a random order, the strictly rules of the auctions, the kind of entities that demonstrated their interest, the fact that someone could prefer to buy without moving the market and the fact that these BTC will be sold - for the first time - through a somehow OFFICIAL way.

This is what I'm thinking. Especially if it is a closed auction, good chance that they might be sold for higher than current price.
Were that the case, it wouldn't surprise me if some of the losing bidders turn to the exchanges to purchase what they didn't win in the auction. Especially if they are truly interested.
In this scenario it could possibly make the price go up.

This auction has given individuals with serious money the idea to invest in bitcoin. That's a good thing.

[GriTBitS]

Critical day, June 27th

https://www.tradingview.com/x/6ajTWgfV

[thresher]

I'm going with the price dip theory, but i'd imagine it is difficult to buy 30k bitcoin quickly if you wanted to, so maybe they will be held due to the fact you couldn't purchase 30k btc in a day without having to progressively pay more per coin?  That could be completely wrong of course, as I can't exactly test that theory.

[abacus]

This is what I'm thinking. Especially if it is a closed auction, good chance that they might be sold for higher than current price.
Were that the case, it wouldn't surprise me if some of the losing bidders turn to the exchanges to purchase what they didn't win in the auction. Especially if they are truly interested.
In this scenario it could possibly make the price go up.

Yes, it also could happen.
About the speculation on the higher ending price, I've found this other thread with interesting thoughts:
FBI coins could sell for a premium

This auction has given individuals with serious money the idea to invest in bitcoin. That's a good thing.

Sure. Take a look, if you didn't already, at who have asked more informations about these auctions:
http://www.coindesk.com/list-possible-silk-road-bitcoin-bidders-allegedly-leaked-us-marshals/
I don't really think that those people are interested in the auctions for the hope of a dump and some quick money.

[Gimmelfarb]

i think fear about the auction has been driving the price down. but the bears can't build any momentum -- only achieving slightly lower lows with momentum divergence. so i think it's already baked into the price, and i think we have found a local bottom.

[BitCoinDream]

Do you think U.S. Marshall auction 29,656.51306529 bitcoins will affect price?

Will the winner of that auction instantly sell off 29,656.51306529 bitcoins for a quick profit?
If so, will it affect the Bitcoin's price?

Winner of the auction wont sell it quickly, though price is suppressed now because of this only. I wish this auction is over fast. As per my analysis, price may go down to 500 USD at most.

[Junko]

If price goes up, great.

If price goes down, great.

If price stays around the same, great.

As long as you have a plan in the case of any scenario, you have nothing to worry about.

[ShakyhandsBTCer]

Do you think U.S. Marshall auction 29,656.51306529 bitcoins will affect price?

Will the winner of that auction instantly sell off 29,656.51306529 bitcoins for a quick profit?
If so, will it affect the Bitcoin's price?

Winner of the auction wont sell it quickly, though price is suppressed now because of this only. I wish this auction is over fast. As per my analysis, price may go down to 500 USD at most.

It depends on the intentions of the buyer(s). If they are bidding so they can attempt arbitrage then they will likely sell quickly, if they indent to invest in bitcoin for some other purpose then they will not.

[bigasic]

Its already effected the price. Once the auction is over, then we will get back so semi-normalcy. I dont get how it even effects the price. Its not like we are going to see the coins on any market any time soon...

Now, when the 144k coins go on the block, that will be very interesting. But those wont go up for sale until DPR's litigation is over with. Which could be a few years.

[jamesc760]

Possible scenarios on June 27th, the day of the auction:

1. Silk Road coins are sold below market value:

Depending on discount rate, btc value will go down accordingly.

2. Silk Road coins are sold at around the fair market value:

It confirms the prevailing btc value, causing more people to buy in, thus triggering a lift-off.

3. Silk Road coins are sold at above the market value:

Bigger effect than #2 above, a huge lift-off.

66.667% chance that BTC will skyrocket on or after June 27th, 2014.

[eoJ]

Anyone who thinks this will not cause a crash is nuts.
Think about it, 30k btc will be sold super cheap, maybe anywhere between 50-80% of the current market price. This by itself won't have an effect, but as soon as the buyers receive those coins they will be dumped on the regular exchanges to take that difference as profit and we will see a big drop.
This drop will in turn cause a panic sell-off, so i suspect we'll end up anywhere between 200-300 USD soon. We can already see it coming down the past days, fear is grabbing a hold of people already even though nothing has happened.

...Except for the fact that one hedge fund already offered to buy the whole lot for 15% under, a few months ago. Why would smaller lots attract a lower price?

[nwfella]

my 2 cents.  pre-announcement at least partly responsible for recent decrease.  Likely to see a fairly major dip right around 27th...quick stabilize, and then ka-bam...end of july fireworks (hoping)

[wonkytonky]

there's already a buyer who wants to buy them all .. so i think they will market price buy them or higher.  if they gonne compete for them coins.


I think we will  know the price .. since smaller investors are buying also trough secondmarket and they will know the price..  it will not take long before we know the actual numbers..

and why sell if you got them 50$  cheaper . not worth the trade for big players. ? maybe smaller investors might try to make a quick profit in selling fast en buying back lower. 

but again.. i dont think that kind of investors are buying now..   the one's buying now are ppl who dont want slippage and think more longterm.

I only see whales trying to manipulate this auction news   for a quick sellof  so their bids are filled below market price.  so i'm putting up some bids to catch that potential dip.

so shorterm: possible fast and hard dip with fast  100% retrace.
middterm: very bullish .. who knows start of bubble..       once we break 800 there's no resistance left (volume profile wise)   only the psychological ath...

[flailing Junk]

I predict that the auctions will go for increasing amounts of USD and trigger the next run-up.

[seleme]

indeed

Anybody that has ever been to a well advertised estate auction or real estate auction knows this one simple fact:

Auctions will sell any item, whether it's a house or grandma's old furniture, for at least a few percent OVER what it's worth.

The competitive nature of auctions in combination with the publicity this auction is garnering? Yeah, there's no doubt in my mind these coins are going to sell for slightly over market value.

Dumped on the market? Not likely.

If I was a betting man, which I am, I'd say within a week after the auction results, the price of BTC goes up 2-5%, at least.

In fact, I'll wager 1 BTC that it does.

Anyone want to take that bet?

Zhis is not the auction you're talking about. One bid, no changes.

[Zohann]

Market psychology will value the coins at the price that the auction goes for.  Once such a large amount of BTC is bought at just over market.  Who would sell their BTC for less?

[tntdgcr]

the FIAT side of my body says I certainly hope so. I don't mind if it gets bad enough that it's just another wise hedge the miner side says "magic help us" and save the day. But really , it's just 7-8 days of mining , so .......

and the ownership of one, isn't direct volume trading on the exchanges we use .... so? -10% , if they start hitting the market -30% for a bit with a pretty good rebound as it would be pure speculators. they aren't trying to move them to FIAT =p

[InwardContour]

Market psychology will value the coins at the price that the auction goes for.  Once such a large amount of BTC is bought at just over market.  Who would sell their BTC for less?

There is no real reason for any bidder to bid BTC above the market value of bitcoin. There are simply not enough bidders/potential buyers to cause a need to bid above the market price.

[Zohann]

Market psychology will value the coins at the price that the auction goes for.  Once such a large amount of BTC is bought at just over market.  Who would sell their BTC for less?

There is no real reason for any bidder to bid BTC above the market value of bitcoin. There are simply not enough bidders/potential buyers to cause a need to bid above the market price.

One look at the list of bidders, and you know they want the coins... are they going to place a bid 5% under market?  10%?  and risk not getting them?  Or bid 1$ over market and ensure they get them.  They try to buy that amount on the exchanges and it'll move the market.  plus they won't get the free advertising.. being interviewed as the winner of the coins, and publishing the market price.

[InwardContour]

Market psychology will value the coins at the price that the auction goes for.  Once such a large amount of BTC is bought at just over market.  Who would sell their BTC for less?

There is no real reason for any bidder to bid BTC above the market value of bitcoin. There are simply not enough bidders/potential buyers to cause a need to bid above the market price.

One look at the list of bidders, and you know they want the coins... are they going to place a bid 5% under market?  10%?  and risk not getting them?  Or bid 1$ over market and ensure they get them.  They try to buy that amount on the exchanges and it'll move the market.  plus they won't get the free advertising.. being interviewed as the winner of the coins, and publishing the market price.

There is no guarantee that they would win the auction at any price.

The sad fact is that the additional supply being brought into the market will likely not be able to be absorbed by a normal amount of demand.

Most investors in bitcoin do not need to attract attention