the real trendline

BTC/USD over time. The scale of the price axis is logarithmic. Horizontal lines have been added to show the price increase after periods of increased volatility.

This exponential increase in price could reduce long term, but I think it's important to use this as a base when predicting, it's unfortunatly not very bear friendly, but it is the data.

Possibly I should have made the line steeper, to end 40 or so BTC higher at the right of the chart.

We still have 0% of most markets and BTC automatically adjusts to changing load. It's both popular now and it has more uses the more the market grows.

Your image didn't show up in your post for me. Here's a re-link in case that's the case for anyone else.

So, in other words, you think we've got some catching up to do.

Quote from: proudhon on August 12, 2012, 04:32:25 PM

Your image didn't show up in your post for me. Here's a re-link in case that's the case for anyone else.

So, in other words, you think we've got some catching up to do.

In other other words it's time to majorly overcorrect!

Quote from: FreeMoney on August 12, 2012, 04:38:02 PM

Quote from: proudhon on August 12, 2012, 04:32:25 PM

Your image didn't show up in your post for me. Here's a re-link in case that's the case for anyone else.

So, in other words, you think we've got some catching up to do.

In other other words it's time to majorly overcorrect!

So, $300 or $3000?

Edit: Oooooooorrrrr...$9000!

Yes, catching up sounds good. To return us more visually to the October 2010 to January 2012 trend I think we are still on, just we are in a statistical dip at the moment. Like a dimple on a golf ball, it seems big if your a flee standing it in but the ball looks mostly spherical to the golfer.

It was time to contine to correct in January 2012 but instead Febuary occurred and dragged tediously until August.

Prodhon, where do you think the line\curve ought to be?

I am fairly comfortable the way it is now and will continue increasing my long position but this arbitrary line in your logchart seems like pump and dump

It's just a line. It represents nothing but wishful thinking. You could choose any number of random peaks and troughs and run a line through them to show anything you wanted.

Quote from: Piper67 on August 12, 2012, 05:06:38 PM

It's just a line. It represents nothing but wishful thinking. You could choose any number of random peaks and troughs and run a line through them to show anything you wanted.

Ironically, I tend to agree when I see trendline posts, wishing the poster would zoom the graph out, especially when they show that the price as if it will decrease long term.

Quote from: alan2here on August 12, 2012, 05:11:54 PM

Quote from: Piper67 on August 12, 2012, 05:06:38 PM

It's just a line. It represents nothing but wishful thinking. You could choose any number of random peaks and troughs and run a line through them to show anything you wanted.

Ironically, I tend to agree when I see trendline posts, wishing the poster would zoom the graph out, especially when they show that the price as if it will decrease long term.

It is an all time graph (or close), if you zoom out it just gets littler.

This internal trendline from the OP doesnt say much. What could provide a true orientation is a moving average. In your case an EMA (300) would be appropriate (which gives an idea of how the price performs in comparison to the last 300 units of your chart in our case in comparison to the past 300 days). An EMA (300) is at 6.224 $/BTC atm. That means we are strongly overvaluated. RSI says the same thing. I would not expect a big rally above 25$ anytime soon. Maybe a short term one, but soon thereafter a correction back into single digits (unless fundamentals change).

The EMA is always going to be lower than the price while the price is continuously rising because it only takes the past into account, when the price was lower.

^^ only true IF price was lower in the past. Shortly after the trend reverses, the EMA will be higher then price for some period of time. So like RSA an EMA of sufficient size is a good indicator of whether the price is currently over bought or over sold. Right now we are over bought (and will probably stay like this short term).

So as (if) BTC continues it's long turm trend of exponential growth agaisn't the USD. You would say that it's overvalued, represents a bubble and will eventually collapse somehow.

Quote from: alan2here on August 14, 2012, 01:18:28 PM

So as (if) BTC continues it's long turm trend of exponential growth agaisn't the USD. You would say that it's overvalued, represents a bubble and will eventually collapse somehow.

Yes, it is overvalued, in a bubble, and will eventually collapse...again.

You're referring to the period between April and December 2001 when the price increased a lot and then decreased a lot less as a bubble followed by a collapse.

It's technically true. Just the wording is so misleading.

what about this one?

You'r horisontal lines are sloping upwards making it look as if no price increase occured when passing the period of volatility we are calling the bubble.

This also shows well why I don't think linier charts are good at showing the long turm trend.