Bitcoin Forum
November 08, 2024, 04:31:28 PM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 28.0 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Pages: [1]
  Print  
Author Topic: the real trendline  (Read 2426 times)
alan2here (OP)
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1778
Merit: 504


WorkAsPro


View Profile
August 12, 2012, 04:21:16 PM
 #1



BTC/USD over time. The scale of the price axis is logarithmic. Horizontal lines have been added to show the price increase after periods of increased volatility.

This exponential increase in price could reduce long term, but I think it's important to use this as a base when predicting, it's unfortunatly not very bear friendly, but it is the data.

Possibly I should have made the line steeper, to end 40 or so BTC higher at the right of the chart.

We still have 0% of most markets and BTC automatically adjusts to changing load. It's both popular now and it has more uses the more the market grows.

████     ████     ████              ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
████    █████▄    ███               ████▀▀▀▀███▄
 ███▄   ██▀███   ████   ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄   ████    ▀███
 ▀███  ▄██  ██   ███                ████    ▄███
  ███  ██▀  ███ ▄███    ▄▄▄▄▄▄      ███████████▀
  ▀██▄ ██   ▀██ ███     ██████      ████
   ██████    ██████    ███  ███     ████
   ▀▀▀▀▀     ▀▀▀▀▀    ▄██▀  ▀██▄    ▀▀▀▀
                      ███    ███
                     ████████████
                    ▄███      ███▄
                    ████      ████
....WorkAsPro...
First 
Crypto-powered
Freelance Service
....NO KYC...
0% Commission
....Fiverr Alternative...
Blockchain Voting System
    ▄█▀█▄
    █▄ ▄█
     ▀▀▀
▄▄  ▄███▄         █
██ ███ ██        █▀
██ ███ ██       ▄█
██ ███ ▀▀  ▀▀▀▀▀▀
██ ▀█▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
 █▄  ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀█
  ██▄▄▄▄▄▄▄  ▀█
▄█▀       ▀█▄ ▀█
▀▀         ▀▀  ▀▀
....Join us now...
proudhon
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2198
Merit: 1311



View Profile
August 12, 2012, 04:32:25 PM
 #2

Your image didn't show up in your post for me.  Here's a re-link in case that's the case for anyone else.



So, in other words, you think we've got some catching up to do.

Bitcoin Fact: the price of bitcoin will not be greater than $70k for more than 25 consecutive days at any point in the rest of recorded human history.
FreeMoney
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1246
Merit: 1016


Strength in numbers


View Profile WWW
August 12, 2012, 04:38:02 PM
 #3

Your image didn't show up in your post for me.  Here's a re-link in case that's the case for anyone else.



So, in other words, you think we've got some catching up to do.

In other other words it's time to majorly overcorrect!

Play Bitcoin Poker at sealswithclubs.eu. We're active and open to everyone.
proudhon
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2198
Merit: 1311



View Profile
August 12, 2012, 04:40:44 PM
 #4

Your image didn't show up in your post for me.  Here's a re-link in case that's the case for anyone else.



So, in other words, you think we've got some catching up to do.

In other other words it's time to majorly overcorrect!

So, $300 or $3000?

Edit:  Oooooooorrrrr...$9000!

Bitcoin Fact: the price of bitcoin will not be greater than $70k for more than 25 consecutive days at any point in the rest of recorded human history.
alan2here (OP)
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1778
Merit: 504


WorkAsPro


View Profile
August 12, 2012, 04:47:00 PM
Last edit: August 12, 2012, 05:06:34 PM by alan2here
 #5

Yes, catching up sounds good. To return us more visually to the October 2010 to January 2012 trend I think we are still on, just we are in a statistical dip at the moment. Like a dimple on a golf ball, it seems big if your a flee standing it in but the ball looks mostly spherical to the golfer.

It was time to contine to correct in January 2012 but instead Febuary occurred and dragged tediously until August.

Prodhon, where do you think the line\curve ought to be?

████     ████     ████              ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
████    █████▄    ███               ████▀▀▀▀███▄
 ███▄   ██▀███   ████   ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄   ████    ▀███
 ▀███  ▄██  ██   ███                ████    ▄███
  ███  ██▀  ███ ▄███    ▄▄▄▄▄▄      ███████████▀
  ▀██▄ ██   ▀██ ███     ██████      ████
   ██████    ██████    ███  ███     ████
   ▀▀▀▀▀     ▀▀▀▀▀    ▄██▀  ▀██▄    ▀▀▀▀
                      ███    ███
                     ████████████
                    ▄███      ███▄
                    ████      ████
....WorkAsPro...
First 
Crypto-powered
Freelance Service
....NO KYC...
0% Commission
....Fiverr Alternative...
Blockchain Voting System
    ▄█▀█▄
    █▄ ▄█
     ▀▀▀
▄▄  ▄███▄         █
██ ███ ██        █▀
██ ███ ██       ▄█
██ ███ ▀▀  ▀▀▀▀▀▀
██ ▀█▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
 █▄  ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀█
  ██▄▄▄▄▄▄▄  ▀█
▄█▀       ▀█▄ ▀█
▀▀         ▀▀  ▀▀
....Join us now...
SaintFlow
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 476
Merit: 250


The first is by definition not flawed.


View Profile
August 12, 2012, 05:02:08 PM
 #6

I am fairly comfortable the way it is now and will continue increasing my long position but this arbitrary line in your logchart seems like pump and dump

don't let me make you question your assumptions
Piper67
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1106
Merit: 1001



View Profile
August 12, 2012, 05:06:38 PM
 #7

It's just a line. It represents nothing but wishful thinking. You could choose any number of random peaks and troughs and run a line through them to show anything you wanted.
alan2here (OP)
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1778
Merit: 504


WorkAsPro


View Profile
August 12, 2012, 05:11:54 PM
 #8

It's just a line. It represents nothing but wishful thinking. You could choose any number of random peaks and troughs and run a line through them to show anything you wanted.

Ironically, I tend to agree when I see trendline posts, wishing the poster would zoom the graph out, especially when they show that the price as if it will decrease long term.

████     ████     ████              ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
████    █████▄    ███               ████▀▀▀▀███▄
 ███▄   ██▀███   ████   ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄   ████    ▀███
 ▀███  ▄██  ██   ███                ████    ▄███
  ███  ██▀  ███ ▄███    ▄▄▄▄▄▄      ███████████▀
  ▀██▄ ██   ▀██ ███     ██████      ████
   ██████    ██████    ███  ███     ████
   ▀▀▀▀▀     ▀▀▀▀▀    ▄██▀  ▀██▄    ▀▀▀▀
                      ███    ███
                     ████████████
                    ▄███      ███▄
                    ████      ████
....WorkAsPro...
First 
Crypto-powered
Freelance Service
....NO KYC...
0% Commission
....Fiverr Alternative...
Blockchain Voting System
    ▄█▀█▄
    █▄ ▄█
     ▀▀▀
▄▄  ▄███▄         █
██ ███ ██        █▀
██ ███ ██       ▄█
██ ███ ▀▀  ▀▀▀▀▀▀
██ ▀█▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
 █▄  ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀█
  ██▄▄▄▄▄▄▄  ▀█
▄█▀       ▀█▄ ▀█
▀▀         ▀▀  ▀▀
....Join us now...
FreeMoney
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1246
Merit: 1016


Strength in numbers


View Profile WWW
August 12, 2012, 06:16:59 PM
 #9

It's just a line. It represents nothing but wishful thinking. You could choose any number of random peaks and troughs and run a line through them to show anything you wanted.

Ironically, I tend to agree when I see trendline posts, wishing the poster would zoom the graph out, especially when they show that the price as if it will decrease long term.

It is an all time graph (or close), if you zoom out it just gets littler.

Play Bitcoin Poker at sealswithclubs.eu. We're active and open to everyone.
Spekulatius
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1022
Merit: 1000



View Profile
August 12, 2012, 10:27:23 PM
 #10



This internal trendline from the OP doesnt say much. What could provide a true orientation is a moving average. In your case an EMA (300) would be appropriate (which gives an idea of how the price performs in comparison to the last 300 units of your chart in our case in comparison to the past 300 days). An EMA (300) is at 6.224 $/BTC atm. That means we are strongly overvaluated. RSI says the same thing. I would not expect a big rally above 25$ anytime soon. Maybe a short term one, but soon thereafter a correction back into single digits (unless fundamentals change).
da2ce7
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1222
Merit: 1016


Live and Let Live


View Profile
August 13, 2012, 01:19:20 AM
 #11

Only This: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dbiJZnZQ4es

One off NP-Hard.
alan2here (OP)
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1778
Merit: 504


WorkAsPro


View Profile
August 13, 2012, 05:19:49 PM
 #12

The EMA is always going to be lower than the price while the price is continuously rising because it only takes the past into account, when the price was lower.

████     ████     ████              ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
████    █████▄    ███               ████▀▀▀▀███▄
 ███▄   ██▀███   ████   ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄   ████    ▀███
 ▀███  ▄██  ██   ███                ████    ▄███
  ███  ██▀  ███ ▄███    ▄▄▄▄▄▄      ███████████▀
  ▀██▄ ██   ▀██ ███     ██████      ████
   ██████    ██████    ███  ███     ████
   ▀▀▀▀▀     ▀▀▀▀▀    ▄██▀  ▀██▄    ▀▀▀▀
                      ███    ███
                     ████████████
                    ▄███      ███▄
                    ████      ████
....WorkAsPro...
First 
Crypto-powered
Freelance Service
....NO KYC...
0% Commission
....Fiverr Alternative...
Blockchain Voting System
    ▄█▀█▄
    █▄ ▄█
     ▀▀▀
▄▄  ▄███▄         █
██ ███ ██        █▀
██ ███ ██       ▄█
██ ███ ▀▀  ▀▀▀▀▀▀
██ ▀█▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
 █▄  ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀█
  ██▄▄▄▄▄▄▄  ▀█
▄█▀       ▀█▄ ▀█
▀▀         ▀▀  ▀▀
....Join us now...
Spekulatius
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1022
Merit: 1000



View Profile
August 13, 2012, 06:48:48 PM
 #13

^^ only true IF price was lower in the past. Shortly after the trend reverses, the EMA will be higher then price for some period of time. So like RSA an EMA of sufficient size is a good indicator of whether the price is currently over bought or over sold. Right now we are over bought (and will probably stay like this short term).
alan2here (OP)
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1778
Merit: 504


WorkAsPro


View Profile
August 14, 2012, 01:18:28 PM
 #14

So as (if) BTC continues it's long turm trend of exponential growth agaisn't the USD. You would say that it's overvalued, represents a bubble and will eventually collapse somehow.

████     ████     ████              ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
████    █████▄    ███               ████▀▀▀▀███▄
 ███▄   ██▀███   ████   ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄   ████    ▀███
 ▀███  ▄██  ██   ███                ████    ▄███
  ███  ██▀  ███ ▄███    ▄▄▄▄▄▄      ███████████▀
  ▀██▄ ██   ▀██ ███     ██████      ████
   ██████    ██████    ███  ███     ████
   ▀▀▀▀▀     ▀▀▀▀▀    ▄██▀  ▀██▄    ▀▀▀▀
                      ███    ███
                     ████████████
                    ▄███      ███▄
                    ████      ████
....WorkAsPro...
First 
Crypto-powered
Freelance Service
....NO KYC...
0% Commission
....Fiverr Alternative...
Blockchain Voting System
    ▄█▀█▄
    █▄ ▄█
     ▀▀▀
▄▄  ▄███▄         █
██ ███ ██        █▀
██ ███ ██       ▄█
██ ███ ▀▀  ▀▀▀▀▀▀
██ ▀█▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
 █▄  ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀█
  ██▄▄▄▄▄▄▄  ▀█
▄█▀       ▀█▄ ▀█
▀▀         ▀▀  ▀▀
....Join us now...
proudhon
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2198
Merit: 1311



View Profile
August 14, 2012, 02:58:07 PM
 #15

So as (if) BTC continues it's long turm trend of exponential growth agaisn't the USD. You would say that it's overvalued, represents a bubble and will eventually collapse somehow.

Yes, it is overvalued, in a bubble, and will eventually collapse...again.

Bitcoin Fact: the price of bitcoin will not be greater than $70k for more than 25 consecutive days at any point in the rest of recorded human history.
alan2here (OP)
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1778
Merit: 504


WorkAsPro


View Profile
August 14, 2012, 03:10:06 PM
Last edit: August 14, 2012, 03:26:06 PM by alan2here
 #16

You're referring to the period between April and December 2001 when the price increased a lot and then decreased a lot less as a bubble followed by a collapse.

It's technically true. Just the wording is so misleading.

████     ████     ████              ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
████    █████▄    ███               ████▀▀▀▀███▄
 ███▄   ██▀███   ████   ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄   ████    ▀███
 ▀███  ▄██  ██   ███                ████    ▄███
  ███  ██▀  ███ ▄███    ▄▄▄▄▄▄      ███████████▀
  ▀██▄ ██   ▀██ ███     ██████      ████
   ██████    ██████    ███  ███     ████
   ▀▀▀▀▀     ▀▀▀▀▀    ▄██▀  ▀██▄    ▀▀▀▀
                      ███    ███
                     ████████████
                    ▄███      ███▄
                    ████      ████
....WorkAsPro...
First 
Crypto-powered
Freelance Service
....NO KYC...
0% Commission
....Fiverr Alternative...
Blockchain Voting System
    ▄█▀█▄
    █▄ ▄█
     ▀▀▀
▄▄  ▄███▄         █
██ ███ ██        █▀
██ ███ ██       ▄█
██ ███ ▀▀  ▀▀▀▀▀▀
██ ▀█▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
 █▄  ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀█
  ██▄▄▄▄▄▄▄  ▀█
▄█▀       ▀█▄ ▀█
▀▀         ▀▀  ▀▀
....Join us now...
ElectricMucus
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057


Marketing manager - GO MP


View Profile WWW
August 14, 2012, 03:38:35 PM
 #17

what about this one?

alan2here (OP)
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1778
Merit: 504


WorkAsPro


View Profile
August 15, 2012, 01:45:52 PM
 #18

You'r horisontal lines are sloping upwards making it look as if no price increase occured when passing the period of volatility we are calling the bubble.

This also shows well why I don't think linier charts are good at showing the long turm trend.

████     ████     ████              ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
████    █████▄    ███               ████▀▀▀▀███▄
 ███▄   ██▀███   ████   ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄   ████    ▀███
 ▀███  ▄██  ██   ███                ████    ▄███
  ███  ██▀  ███ ▄███    ▄▄▄▄▄▄      ███████████▀
  ▀██▄ ██   ▀██ ███     ██████      ████
   ██████    ██████    ███  ███     ████
   ▀▀▀▀▀     ▀▀▀▀▀    ▄██▀  ▀██▄    ▀▀▀▀
                      ███    ███
                     ████████████
                    ▄███      ███▄
                    ████      ████
....WorkAsPro...
First 
Crypto-powered
Freelance Service
....NO KYC...
0% Commission
....Fiverr Alternative...
Blockchain Voting System
    ▄█▀█▄
    █▄ ▄█
     ▀▀▀
▄▄  ▄███▄         █
██ ███ ██        █▀
██ ███ ██       ▄█
██ ███ ▀▀  ▀▀▀▀▀▀
██ ▀█▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
 █▄  ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀█
  ██▄▄▄▄▄▄▄  ▀█
▄█▀       ▀█▄ ▀█
▀▀         ▀▀  ▀▀
....Join us now...
Pages: [1]
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!