Since there is no bitcoin futures market, I'm starting one. Speculate now on the value of bitcoins on 7/1/2011.
This is an experiment, so please don't bet your life savings.
1) All bets will be tracked at this newly created address in a currently-empty wallet: http://blockexplorer.com/address/1945qfobZxdnmVJ6qBd4FgcVcWBhDXKiTV
2) The "bitcents" represent your bet on the USD price of bitcoins on July 1, 2011 at noon U.S. pacific time. Examples:
a) A bet of 1.13 BTC sent to that address is a bet of 1.13 BTC that bitcoins will be worth $13 USD on July 1st
b) A bet of 12.08 sent to that address is a bet of 12.08 BTC that bitcoins will be worth $8 USD on July 1st
c) A bet of 0.15 sent to that address is a bet of 0.15 BTC that bitcoins will be worth $15 on July 1st
d) You can use sub-cents if you want. A bet of 0.015 BTC is placed on $1.50 per bitcoin
3) Winnings will be put in one pot and distributed as follows:
a) 98% of the pot will go to the winners (those within + or - $0.50 of the final value, inclusive)
b) 2% of the pot will go to me
c) The pot will be split among winners by the size of their bet multiplied by the number of days in advance they made their bet (days will be fractional with resolution in seconds, per block explorer timestamps)
d) Winnings will be returned to the sending address, so use the real bitcoin client, not a managed wallet
4) The reference price on July 1st will be determined by me, using my browser on MtGox, at exactly noon
pacific time. If for some reason I am unable to do this, I will rely on MtGox records and/or forum members posting the price in this thread. I will do my best to be fair, and I will not be betting any of my own bitcoins, so I should be impartial.
e) I will post the final price and who I think the winners are and how much they should get here for community vetting. I will allow for comments to accumulate over the following weekend, and then pay out on
Tuesday following the holiday weekend if there is no great scandal.
If an excessive amount of bitcoins are bet, I will probably seek a trusted forum member to hold some of the bitcoins so they aren't all in my care. My first choice would be _mndrix, followed by GavinAnderson. I would consider other highly trusted members if neither of them want to do it.
Edit: See bond info below
As an incentive to kick things off, I'm offering 0.1BTC each to the first 5 betters: http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=10008.msg144375#msg144375
Obviously placing multiple bets at different prices is going to be a common strategy.Update:
Michael Hendrix (of Coinpal/Coincard fame) has agreed to hold 50 of my personal bitcoins as a bond against any mishaps with the money. You can see where he posted in the thread below with his PGP signature agreeing to hold my bond
. You can view the bond here: http://blockexplorer.com/address/168bokgyuxUYp1HL7xeyZzQCj7dEKZQyuR
For posterity, here is the email I sent him:
---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Thu, May 26, 2011 at 12:09 PM
Subject: Bitcoin Bond
Would you be willing to hold a 50BTC bond for me? I'm running an experiment on the bitcoin forum with bitcoin futures, and I need to have somebody trustworthy to hold some bitcoins for me in case I make off with all the money.
The thread is here: http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=10008.0
If you are willing to hold the bitcoins, please reply to me by email AND post on the thread (so I know your new forum name is really you) with an address to send the bitcoins to. Then I can post bond with you.
If people bet more than 50 bitcoins, I'll probably send you additional bitcoins for safekeeping at the same address.
Please let me know whether you are willing.