Why Satoshi's coins will never hit the market

[Cassius]

Article looks like bullshit based off nothing but speculation to me. There's nothing that offers proof or backs up their claims at all. Nobody knows what happened to satoshi, his coins, or even if he is one or more people.

It is very simple to look that up.  Look at the first 20 000 blocks on blockchain.info.
There you will see Satoshi's addresses and their contents (indeed mostly 50 coins).

Block 0 (genesis block): address 1A1zP1eP5QGefi2DMPTfTL5SLmv7DivfNa

It has received some dust (and now has 65 coins in it) but never spend anything

Block 1 (first block) after genesis block: address 12c6DSiU4Rq3P4ZxziKxzrL5LmMBrzjrJX

It has received much less dust and now contains 50.025 coins, never spend anything

Block 2 : address: 1HLoD9E4SDFFPDiYfNYnkBLQ85Y51J3Zb1 and contains 50.00038429 BTC

and so on.

Block 10000: address 1JoiKZz2QRd47ARtcYgvgxC9jhnre9aphv, still contains the 50 BTC and no dust.

Block 15000: address 1KzP9ideELyDMyjg4svrheub7Ttg6W2cdk still contains the 50 BTC.

Block 20000: address 1Gtj5h1u8yZJe32neQZB5C7efP9XeMd9SW still contains the 50 BTC.

...

In fact, I wonder whether the idea is simply not that instead of a total amount of bitcoin of 21 million something, to have exactly 20 million.  If you subtract the early coins that don't seem to move, it seems to turn out to be about that.

Thank you. This is a more detailed rundown of what the chart shows.

What is really at stake is whether he kept all 20000 keys. Ultimately there's no proof for that - unless and until the coins in one of those addresses moves. It hasn't happened yet, so all we can say there's an absence of proof he kept the keys. You can't ever prove he discarded them, only that he didn't. But given that no one else was mining bitcoin, that bitcointalk didn't even exist, that the coins were worthless - albeit if he hoped they'd one day have some value - it's a valid theory.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Each wallet can have several receiving addresses. And I'm pretty sure you don't need a new private key for that.
I'm pretty sure I remember that this is even the default behavior from solo mining litecoins.

Each address ('pay to pubkeyhash') has its own private key.  Mining or not that is a basic of how Bitcoin works.

[DeathAndTaxes]

It is very simple to look that up.  Look at the first 20 000 blocks on blockchain.info.
There you will see Satoshi's addresses and their contents (indeed mostly 50 coins).

Why do you assume the first 20,000 blocks were all mined by Satoshi.  There were other miners.  Hal Finney even reported solving a block a few weeks after the genesis block and he wasn't the only one.  Also Satoshi did let some information leak.  He used a sequential extra nonce and didn't reset it between blocks.  Using that people have made projections on how many of the blocks in the first year were mined by Satoshi.  Nobody has reached a conclusion that Satoshi mined blocks 0 through 20,000 sequentially.

This is a far better analysis of the early mining.
http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2014/08/167-satoshis-hashrate.html

Nothing can be proven for certain but they at least limit themselves to the facts in the blockchain.  Reaching the conclusion he never intended to save the keys from the fact that the coins haven't been moved is pretty weak.  We do know that by even Oct 2009 Bitcoin had 'some' value.  ~1000 BTC per dollar so a million BTC would be $1,000 worth.  Sure not a fortune but I don't know anyone who would intentionally destroy $1,000 worth of BTC today.  Based on the 'extranonce leak' we also know it is very likely Satoshi mined at least through mid 2010 and decreased his hashrate as other miners took up the slack.  The exchange rate was rapidly rising before Satoshi stopped mining but the later coins show the same lack of movement.

[Cassius]

It is very simple to look that up.  Look at the first 20 000 blocks on blockchain.info.
There you will see Satoshi's addresses and their contents (indeed mostly 50 coins).

Why do you assume the first 20,000 blocks were all mined by Satoshi.  There were other miners.  Hal Finney even reported solving a block a few weeks after the genesis block and he wasn't the only one.  Also Satoshi did let some information leak.  He used a sequential extra nonce and didn't reset it between blocks.  Using that people have made projections on how many of the blocks in the first year were mined by Satoshi.  Nobody has reached a conclusion that Satoshi mined blocks 0 through 20,000 sequentially.

Not every single one - but most. Estimates are he mined around 1m coins. And it's interesting that those blocks of 50 were never moved. Most other people presumably would have done, including Hal Finney - he says as much.
By the way, Hal Finney also said he then left bitcoin aside for a while (he didn't like the effect CPU mining had on his computer!) and only came back to it some time later. In the early days there weren't many miners.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Not every single one - but most. Estimates are he mined around 1m coins.

Correct from the extra nonce leak the estimates are around 1 million coins and that would be 20,000 blocks but it was 20,000 blocks over the course of about 18 months.  Bitcoin wasn't worthless by even late 2010 but the later blocks and the earlier blocks show the same lack of movement.   Nobody is disputing that Satoshi mined a lot of the early coins but the articles claim that he intentionally mined with throw away keys isn't supported by any facts.

And it's interesting that those blocks of 50 were never moved.

It is interesting and I don't think 'satoshi's million' will ever be spent.  If he protected his Bitcoin identity from his real life as well as he protected his real identity from his Bitcoin life then if he died it is very likely nobody who knew him personally even knew he was 'satoshi'.  His coins would have died with him.  It goes beyond just the early 'satoshi' blocks however.  There are about 58,000 block rewards in the first era which have never been spent.  I am just saying none of this supports a claim that he intentionally mined to unknown keys to ensure the coins were destroyed.

[Cassius]

Not every single one - but most. Estimates are he mined around 1m coins.

Correct from the extra nonce leak the estimates are around 1 million coins and that would be 20,000 blocks but it was 20,000 blocks over the course of about 18 months.  Bitcoin wasn't worthless by even late 2010 but the later blocks and the earlier blocks show the same lack of movement.   Nobody is disputing that Satoshi mined a lot of the early coins but the articles claim that he intentionally mined with throw away keys isn't supported by any facts.

Sorry, that's a mistake of terminology. By 'throwaway' I don't mean in the technical sense. I mean that he didn't keep them! Like I say, it's not possible to prove that, only disprove.

[Mikestang]

It's noble to think that he/they never intended those early coins to be used and they're in addresses that can never be accessed.  But humans are greedy by nature, and I would be surprised if those coins went untouched for all time.  Hopefully some day they can be put to use for the good of the network (maybe that was the intention all along)...

[futureofbitcoin]

I don't get that mentality. Why would the price crash because satoshi is using his bitcoins?

He was the first miner and it's estimated he must have mined between half a million to one and a half million bitcoins. If he chose to dump them he could clear out all the buy orders on every exchange in an instant. Look at the damage the bear whale did by dumping a tiny fraction of the coins Satoshi mined.

yeah, if he dumps ALL of his coins, that wouldn't be good.

But if he sells 10 bitcoins, it really shouldn't be any different than you selling 10 bitcoins or me selling 10 bitcoins.

[gentlemand]

But if he sells 10 bitcoins, it really shouldn't be any different than you selling 10 bitcoins or me selling 10 bitcoins.

If only.

If there's anything the last year or more has taught us, it's that BTC holders relish a good panic sell.

[Rampton]

But if he sells 10 bitcoins, it really shouldn't be any different than you selling 10 bitcoins or me selling 10 bitcoins.

If only.

If there's anything the last year or more has taught us, it's that BTC holders relish a good panic sell.

Can you imagine if even 1 satoshi moves from his address? The entire bitcoin community would go into meltdown and panic mode. Part of me thinks its probably wise those coins never move but satoshi could do some good with them in the future and I'm sure he'd be wise about how he used or moved them. He wouldn't be stupid enough to just dump them.

[Orwell]

I don't get that mentality. Why would the price crash because satoshi is using his bitcoins?

He was the first miner and it's estimated he must have mined between half a million to one and a half million bitcoins. If he chose to dump them he could clear out all the buy orders on every exchange in an instant. Look at the damage the bear whale did by dumping a tiny fraction of the coins Satoshi mined.

yeah, if he dumps ALL of his coins, that wouldn't be good.

But if he sells 10 bitcoins, it really shouldn't be any different than you selling 10 bitcoins or me selling 10 bitcoins.

If satoshi was going to spend any coins he would of by now. I think people would panic if he did spend even ten because spending the rest could be quite disastrous.

[Mikestang]

I don't get that mentality. Why would the price crash because satoshi is using his bitcoins?

He was the first miner and it's estimated he must have mined between half a million to one and a half million bitcoins. If he chose to dump them he could clear out all the buy orders on every exchange in an instant. Look at the damage the bear whale did by dumping a tiny fraction of the coins Satoshi mined.

yeah, if he dumps ALL of his coins, that wouldn't be good.

But if he sells 10 bitcoins, it really shouldn't be any different than you selling 10 bitcoins or me selling 10 bitcoins.

If satoshi was going to spend any coins he would of by now. I think people would panic if he did spend even ten because spending the rest could be quite disastrous.

Disastrous? How so?  They were meant to be spent, spending them supports bitcoin.  Satoshi didn't design this all and mean for people to not use millions of bitcoins.

[futureofbitcoin]

Satoshi deserves to eat, buy a house, vacation, etc too. Why shouldn't he be able to spend his money?

If he spends his btc and a crash came, I'd be extremely happy because I can be an early adopter.

[gentlemand]

Disastrous? How so?  They were meant to be spent, spending them supports bitcoin.  Satoshi didn't design this all and mean for people to not use millions of bitcoins.

Keep an eye out for people squealing about bitcoin days destroyed. If a large amount of old coins move then lots of folks hop around in circles and jump up and down.

For better or worse, any Satoshi coins that moved would set people off. It would've been sensible to keep them moving and circulating if only to prevent them gaining mythical status.

[Rampton]

I don't get that mentality. Why would the price crash because satoshi is using his bitcoins?

He was the first miner and it's estimated he must have mined between half a million to one and a half million bitcoins. If he chose to dump them he could clear out all the buy orders on every exchange in an instant. Look at the damage the bear whale did by dumping a tiny fraction of the coins Satoshi mined.

yeah, if he dumps ALL of his coins, that wouldn't be good.

But if he sells 10 bitcoins, it really shouldn't be any different than you selling 10 bitcoins or me selling 10 bitcoins.

If satoshi was going to spend any coins he would of by now. I think people would panic if he did spend even ten because spending the rest could be quite disastrous.

Disastrous? How so?  They were meant to be spent, spending them supports bitcoin.  Satoshi didn't design this all and mean for people to not use millions of bitcoins.

Yes, but that's irrelevant. It would be catastrophic if someone dumped that amount of coins on an exchange. Look what happens when people dump relatively small amounts in comparison. The price falls drastically. Its basic supply and demand.

[pooya87]

i believe if satoshi wanted to spend his coins that was mined in early stages, he would have done it by now. someone like satoshi with that financial mind don't need these ways to earn money.

[futureofbitcoin]

I don't get that mentality. Why would the price crash because satoshi is using his bitcoins?

He was the first miner and it's estimated he must have mined between half a million to one and a half million bitcoins. If he chose to dump them he could clear out all the buy orders on every exchange in an instant. Look at the damage the bear whale did by dumping a tiny fraction of the coins Satoshi mined.

yeah, if he dumps ALL of his coins, that wouldn't be good.

But if he sells 10 bitcoins, it really shouldn't be any different than you selling 10 bitcoins or me selling 10 bitcoins.

If satoshi was going to spend any coins he would of by now. I think people would panic if he did spend even ten because spending the rest could be quite disastrous.

Disastrous? How so?  They were meant to be spent, spending them supports bitcoin.  Satoshi didn't design this all and mean for people to not use millions of bitcoins.

Yes, but that's irrelevant. It would be catastrophic if someone dumped that amount of coins on an exchange. Look what happens when people dump relatively small amounts in comparison. The price falls drastically. Its basic supply and demand.

You clearly did not read the posts you're quoting.

[Mikestang]

I don't get that mentality. Why would the price crash because satoshi is using his bitcoins?

He was the first miner and it's estimated he must have mined between half a million to one and a half million bitcoins. If he chose to dump them he could clear out all the buy orders on every exchange in an instant. Look at the damage the bear whale did by dumping a tiny fraction of the coins Satoshi mined.

yeah, if he dumps ALL of his coins, that wouldn't be good.

But if he sells 10 bitcoins, it really shouldn't be any different than you selling 10 bitcoins or me selling 10 bitcoins.

If satoshi was going to spend any coins he would of by now. I think people would panic if he did spend even ten because spending the rest could be quite disastrous.

Disastrous? How so?  They were meant to be spent, spending them supports bitcoin.  Satoshi didn't design this all and mean for people to not use millions of bitcoins.

Yes, but that's irrelevant. It would be catastrophic if someone dumped that amount of coins on an exchange. Look what happens when people dump relatively small amounts in comparison. The price falls drastically. Its basic supply and demand.

You're overreacting again.  "Catastrophic", really?  I think you underestimate the robustness of the system and how supply and demand work.  FUD

[Rampton]

Disastrous? How so?  They were meant to be spent, spending them supports bitcoin.  Satoshi didn't design this all and mean for people to not use millions of bitcoins.

Yes, but that's irrelevant. It would be catastrophic if someone dumped that amount of coins on an exchange. Look what happens when people dump relatively small amounts in comparison. The price falls drastically. Its basic supply and demand.

You clearly did not read the posts you're quoting.

How do you work that out? You're saying bitcoin were meant to be spent so it's ok and wouldn't be disastrous if all his coins were dumped but that is completely irrelevant to the point here so I don't think you are reading the posts you're quoting or if you are you're certainly not understanding them or articulating your point properly.

You're overreacting again.  "Catastrophic", really?  I think you underestimate the robustness of the system and how supply and demand work.  FUD

No I'm not. You two just don't know what you're talking about nor what effect dumping a shit tonne of coins on the exchanges has on the price. It's you who doesn't understand how simple supply and demand works because you wouldn't be saying this and it has absolutely nothing to do with the 'robustness' of the system. Bitcoin will continue working fine but the price you pay for them will be significantly less.

[Mikestang]

No I'm not. You two just don't know what you're talking about nor what effect dumping a shit tonne of coins on the exchanges has on the price. It's you who doesn't understand how simple supply and demand works because you wouldn't be saying this and it has absolutely nothing to do with the 'robustness' of the system. Bitcoin will continue working fine but the price you pay for them will be significantly less.

I didn't say it wouldn't have an effect, I said using words like "catastrophic" and "disastrous" are an exaggeration and FUD.