Current market conditions are scary

[Wandererfromthenorth]

Let's just consider the BTC market technicals for one second.


First of all, the 1w chart still looks like this (the most important multi-year long term support trend line left that was broken with a spectacular crash):






Secondly, on a more short term time frame, price has broken below the support trend line since the $150 bottom, and now became pretty strong resistance:






And finally, the bid sum on all exchanges (one of the most important aspects in considering a possible sustainable uptrend) is still relentlessly decreasing and is now sitting at scary low levels (bitstamp at $2.6M, Huobi at $1.2M etc)









There's not more to add, current market conditions paint a pretty scary picture.
One thing is sure, the BTC markets have been unhealthy for quite a while, and they are not getting better at all for now.




PS: Sure, in 2011 price broke a log support trend line too (at $4 and then crashed to $2), but I argue that for a lot of reasons you can't really compare these two different scenarios. Price, marketcap, and overall landscape were totally different.
I'm not saying that because of that BTC is going to $0, just saying that breaking that long term trend line right now was a even more bearish turn of events.

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[Wandererfromthenorth]

Also I didn't add the fact that recent pumps have been supported by a lot of borrowed money in longs ($24M+ now on bitfinex) rather than by fresh new fiat on exchanges. These longs will just add to the sell pressure if it goes further down.

[NUFCrichard]

I don't really put a lot of faith into technical analysis, I always think it is used after something has happened to explain why it happened in retrospect.
I have to say though breaking through the support levels isn't great news, but it could just as well mean that it is oversold and due to rise..

I don't day trade anyway, so as long as the line continues upwards in the long run I will be happy.  What would be your prediction for a low price if your technical analysis is right? Looks like about 1200yuan, so $193 or so?

[uki]

@OP: Here in this topic we discuss why applying TA to Bitcoin does not always work: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=998939.0
You should definitely share your thoughts there.

[Wandererfromthenorth]

I don't really put a lot of faith into technical analysis, I always think it is used after something has happened to explain why it happened in retrospect.
I have to say though breaking through the support levels isn't great news, but it could just as well mean that it is oversold and due to rise..

I don't day trade anyway, so as long as the line continues upwards in the long run I will be happy.  What would be your prediction for a low price if your technical analysis is right? Looks like about 1200yuan, so $193 or so?

By looking at the bid sum I doubt the recent $150 bottom will hold, so my guess would be high double digits like $75-$85, something like that.

@OP: Here in this topic we discuss why applying TA to Bitcoin does not always work: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=998939.0
You should definitely share your thoughts there.

Yes thanks I posted there 

[EsaEzekiel]

so you think the price should back to $350, recently ////

[Amph]

it could just be the calm before the storm, the problem is that everyone still compare current situation to the 1200 peak, that peak was just pure manipulation(willy bot ecc...) and a bit of luck

right now the price is low, because there are only whales playing with the market, no new money influx...

[NUFCrichard]

I don't really put a lot of faith into technical analysis, I always think it is used after something has happened to explain why it happened in retrospect.
I have to say though breaking through the support levels isn't great news, but it could just as well mean that it is oversold and due to rise..

I don't day trade anyway, so as long as the line continues upwards in the long run I will be happy.  What would be your prediction for a low price if your technical analysis is right? Looks like about 1200yuan, so $193 or so?

By looking at the bid sum I doubt the recent $150 bottom will hold, so my guess would be high double digits like $75-$85, something like that.

@OP: Here in this topic we discuss why applying TA to Bitcoin does not always work: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=998939.0
You should definitely share your thoughts there.

Yes thanks I posted there 

So completely off all of your charts?  That doesn't really seem like technical analysis, rather opinion...
Looking at last time the price broke down through the resistance levels, it fell to an equivilent of about $190.  If we reach that level (i don't think we will) I will be buying in strongly.

[calme]

the funny part of it: just watch how quickly market sentiment turns right back around. it's fucking nuts. perhaps measured in hours.

[fairglu]

@OP: Here in this topic we discuss why applying TA to Bitcoin does not always work

TA does not always work in general.

The power (and weakness) of TA is that it is a self-fulfilling prophecy: whenever enough traders see the same lines, they will trade on them, and thus everything with happen as forecast. Up to a black swan event.

[Wandererfromthenorth]

I don't really put a lot of faith into technical analysis, I always think it is used after something has happened to explain why it happened in retrospect.
I have to say though breaking through the support levels isn't great news, but it could just as well mean that it is oversold and due to rise..

I don't day trade anyway, so as long as the line continues upwards in the long run I will be happy.  What would be your prediction for a low price if your technical analysis is right? Looks like about 1200yuan, so $193 or so?

By looking at the bid sum I doubt the recent $150 bottom will hold, so my guess would be high double digits like $75-$85, something like that.

@OP: Here in this topic we discuss why applying TA to Bitcoin does not always work: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=998939.0
You should definitely share your thoughts there.

Yes thanks I posted there 

So completely off all of your charts?  That doesn't really seem like technical analysis, rather opinion...
Looking at last time the price broke down through the resistance levels, it fell to an equivilent of about $190.  If we reach that level (i don't think we will) I will be buying in strongly.

It's not off the charts. If the next crash has a similar magnitude than the other ones it means it will end up at high double digits like $75-$85.

RyNinDaCleM recently posted a chart that shows this:




The market is so weak it didn't even bulltrap to $340-$360, it just stopped at $300, lol

[NUFCrichard]

I don't really put a lot of faith into technical analysis, I always think it is used after something has happened to explain why it happened in retrospect.
I have to say though breaking through the support levels isn't great news, but it could just as well mean that it is oversold and due to rise..

I don't day trade anyway, so as long as the line continues upwards in the long run I will be happy.  What would be your prediction for a low price if your technical analysis is right? Looks like about 1200yuan, so $193 or so?

By looking at the bid sum I doubt the recent $150 bottom will hold, so my guess would be high double digits like $75-$85, something like that.

@OP: Here in this topic we discuss why applying TA to Bitcoin does not always work: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=998939.0
You should definitely share your thoughts there.

Yes thanks I posted there 

So completely off all of your charts?  That doesn't really seem like technical analysis, rather opinion...
Looking at last time the price broke down through the resistance levels, it fell to an equivilent of about $190.  If we reach that level (i don't think we will) I will be buying in strongly.

It's not off the charts. If the next crash has a similar magnitude than the other ones it means it will end up at high double digits like $75-$85.

RyNinDaCleM recently posted a chart that shows this:




The market is so weak it didn't even bulltrap to $340-$360, it just stopped at $300, lol

Your trend lines hardly ever touch the curve!  That is also a completely different graph to the one you showed in the first post, where it showed that last time the resistance was broken, there was a flash crash to 933 yuan, before a recovery back to the resistance levels. Using this new graph you seem to be saying that the price will rise to about $400.

I have to say, I didn't realise that you were predicting the price for November, do you not think maybe that fundamentals might come into play over such a long time period? Or do you think that the market only works on a technical level, regardless of what happens with regulations, companies accepting bitcoins, ETFs etc?

[Bit_Happy]

@OP: Here in this topic we discuss why applying TA to Bitcoin does not always work: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=998939.0
You should definitely share your thoughts there.

TA is just a (semi-worthless) tool. The Bitcoin economy will eventually drive the market to amazing new highs.

[HarmonLi]

I think it's difficult to draw those very long term trend-lines. If you've off by a few USD, you may miss the price by 50 USD when extrapolating the price into the future. I think leveraged trading has changed Bitcoin with this bubble cycle.

[Wandererfromthenorth]

I don't really put a lot of faith into technical analysis, I always think it is used after something has happened to explain why it happened in retrospect.
I have to say though breaking through the support levels isn't great news, but it could just as well mean that it is oversold and due to rise..

I don't day trade anyway, so as long as the line continues upwards in the long run I will be happy.  What would be your prediction for a low price if your technical analysis is right? Looks like about 1200yuan, so $193 or so?

By looking at the bid sum I doubt the recent $150 bottom will hold, so my guess would be high double digits like $75-$85, something like that.

@OP: Here in this topic we discuss why applying TA to Bitcoin does not always work: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=998939.0
You should definitely share your thoughts there.

Yes thanks I posted there 

So completely off all of your charts?  That doesn't really seem like technical analysis, rather opinion...
Looking at last time the price broke down through the resistance levels, it fell to an equivilent of about $190.  If we reach that level (i don't think we will) I will be buying in strongly.

It's not off the charts. If the next crash has a similar magnitude than the other ones it means it will end up at high double digits like $75-$85.

RyNinDaCleM recently posted a chart that shows this:




The market is so weak it didn't even bulltrap to $340-$360, it just stopped at $300, lol

Your trend lines hardly ever touch the curve!  That is also a completely different graph to the one you showed in the first post, where it showed that last time the resistance was broken, there was a flash crash to 933 yuan, before a recovery back to the resistance levels. Using this new graph you seem to be saying that the price will rise to about $400.

I have to say, I didn't realise that you were predicting the price for November, do you not think maybe that fundamentals might come into play over such a long time period? Or do you think that the market only works on a technical level, regardless of what happens with regulations, companies accepting bitcoins, ETFs etc?

"Curve"? What do you mean?

Yes is a different chart but it was just to show that ranges in high double digits are not "off the charts".

Yes following that chart price was supposed to touch $360.
Few weeks back I admitted that price could reach $330 using a similar trend line but said that overall was still bearish (like the RyNinDaCleM chart): https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.msg10631905#msg10631905

In the end market was so weak that it never recahed $330 or $360.

[Raystonn]

Are you really using Bitstamp bid sum in your arguments here?  The market has moved on.  It's time to update your data.

[Wandererfromthenorth]

Are you really using Bitstamp bid sum in your arguments here?  The market has moved on.  It's time to update your data.

It's just an example dude, go to coinsight.org and check for yourself if the situation at any exchange is any different.

[BillyBobZorton]

TA is what it is. Rpietila was dropping TA lines drawing 1 million dollars by now. The thing is we DONT KNOW. What WE KNOW is Bitcoin is amazing and unmatched, and that we are still a extremely underground community.

[mrhelpful]

The btc needs a progress report on all the years event, to get back to $300 or something.

Maybe some good PR will do the trick, and have faith in the coin. lol. Hurry, someone post twitch recently adopting a tipping service used with bitcoin. post it on reddit! I need some $40 manipulation to sell off my coin. 

Anyways, yeah the reality of the markets are being rough overall though. I just hope those winkelvoss twins can pull something through like ETF or some shit so normal investors can buy a ton to boost it up lol.

Only then, it would have a solid foundation or something similar as a financial event.

[Wandererfromthenorth]

TA is what it is. Rpietila was dropping TA lines drawing 1 million dollars by now.

Yeah but that's not really how TA should be used, that's more whishful thinking