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Author Topic: Just a reminder (difficulty)  (Read 1834 times)
epii
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May 26, 2011, 03:59:13 PM
 #1

Two and a half hours to the difficulty retarget, and it's going to be a doozy.

Vires In Numeris.
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CydeWeys
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May 26, 2011, 04:05:05 PM
 #2

Yup, right around 438,000.  A lot of people who bought new mining rigs recently and who forgot to take exponentially increasing difficulty into account are going to be losing lots of money.
acamus
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May 26, 2011, 04:07:52 PM
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CydeWeys wins! http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=9158.0

Short Bitcoin  (http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=12536.0) if you dare.
http://www.tradebitcoin.com/
http://oneminuteslow.com/bitcoin/100-20.png (http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=8895.0)
15V8JNvmvuWnRF3r6hfTyLL1ukyfp
Horkabork
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May 26, 2011, 04:17:41 PM
 #4

So... will the dollar exchange value of a bitcoin rise to compensate?

Me: 15gbWvpLPfbLJZBsL2u5gkBdL3BUXDbTuF
A goat: http://i52.tinypic.com/34pj4v6.jpg
CydeWeys
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May 26, 2011, 04:24:30 PM
 #5

No.  The difficulty level rises to compensate for increased mining, so that the number of bitcoins entering the economy is stable.  Only if the difficulty level didn't adjust would you see an effect on the price.
tomcollins
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May 26, 2011, 04:46:34 PM
 #6

No.  The difficulty level rises to compensate for increased mining, so that the number of bitcoins entering the economy is stable.  Only if the difficulty level didn't adjust would you see an effect on the price.

Since less coins will be mined, it might adjust a little bit.  But everyone knows it's coming, so it should already be priced in.
acamus
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May 26, 2011, 05:01:54 PM
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No.  The difficulty level rises to compensate for increased mining, so that the number of bitcoins entering the economy is stable.  Only if the difficulty level didn't adjust would you see an effect on the price.

Since less coins will be mined, it might adjust a little bit.  But everyone knows it's coming, so it should already be priced in.

All I know is that my eyes are glued after last night's action! over 500k of usd traded

Short Bitcoin  (http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=12536.0) if you dare.
http://www.tradebitcoin.com/
http://oneminuteslow.com/bitcoin/100-20.png (http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=8895.0)
15V8JNvmvuWnRF3r6hfTyLL1ukyfp
evoorhees
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May 26, 2011, 05:18:07 PM
 #8

Didn't the difficulty just rise like a week ago? lol
mewantsbitcoins
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May 26, 2011, 05:25:45 PM
 #9

Didn't the difficulty just rise like a week ago? lol

lol

it will be rising next week again  Grin
epii
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May 26, 2011, 05:30:56 PM
 #10

The latest network graphs look like the beginnings of an S-curve to me.  The trend may not continue, but if I'm seeing it correctly, it looks like difficulty would peak around 800,000 - 900,000.

Vires In Numeris.
mewantsbitcoins
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May 26, 2011, 05:42:38 PM
 #11

I found a way to predict difficulty in the future  Grin

It correlates with new posts per month

compro01
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May 26, 2011, 05:50:19 PM
 #12

A lot of people who bought new mining rigs recently and who forgot to take exponentially increasing difficulty into account are going to be losing lots of money.

only if this difficulty growth continues long term (long enough that a new generation of mining hardware can eat their lunch) or they choose to realize that loss (by selling their hardware, etc.).

at some point people have to start dropping out due to unprofitably.  at least assuming we're not all mining on free electricity or price keeps up with difficulty growth.
lacedwithkerosene
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May 26, 2011, 06:18:51 PM
 #13

Don't underestimate the youthful naivety of a prospective miner. I wouldn't expect there to be any less miners total. How could there be, when everyday there is another poor bloke making a thread looking for a loan so they can solo mine and then pay you back with a profit within a few months? Bitcoin mining shatters dreams Undecided

Anonymous
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May 26, 2011, 06:21:20 PM
 #14

Bitcoin mining is only beneficial if you are going to go big or you need the computer in the first place. Otherwise, you are better off purchasing coins.
w128
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May 26, 2011, 06:31:07 PM
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Don't underestimate the youthful naivety of a prospective miner. I wouldn't expect there to be any less miners total. How could there be, when everyday there is another poor bloke making a thread looking for a loan so they can solo mine and then pay you back with a profit within a few months? Bitcoin mining shatters dreams Undecided

At least those guys will be left with a respectable and resalable PC when it's all said and done. The thousands of people who get sucked into Amway and similar scams end up with a pile of worthless crap.
lacedwithkerosene
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May 26, 2011, 06:36:40 PM
 #16

Don't underestimate the youthful naivety of a prospective miner. I wouldn't expect there to be any less miners total. How could there be, when everyday there is another poor bloke making a thread looking for a loan so they can solo mine and then pay you back with a profit within a few months? Bitcoin mining shatters dreams Undecided

At least those guys will be left with a respectable and resalable PC when it's all said and done. The thousands of people who get sucked into Amway and similar scams end up with a pile of worthless crap.

Maybe they will, but their lenders will have "got sucked into" their false promises (which aren't even intentional, just delusional).

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