Can bitcoins break $5,000 in 20 years?

[Luno]

"Bitcoin priced higher than FB"; I know, you are absolutely  right.
Nevertheless a catchy headline that would suggest that Bitcoin makes better sense than investing in the internet giant. It is'nt fair either to compare the price of a currency/commodity to the value of a stock.

[GeoRW]

It depends how much will other electronic currencies improve meanwhile. There's already solid competition in namecoins, litecoins etc. In future I predict there'll be a lot of competing electronic currencies and bitcoin might still be ahead of others regarding general adoption, features, infrastructure etc. but I wouldn't definitely bet on that
It will go way beyond what Friedrich Hayek described in his "The Denationalization of Money" paper for sure

[flipperfish]

No, bitcoin's market cap would have to exceed about $41 Billion (FB's current market cap) for it to be even remotely accurate to say "bitcoin is priced higher than Facebook". The price per trading-unit is not relevant in a vacuum. So that equates to about $1952/BTC (using the full 21,000,000 coin issuance).

By reading those numbers I remember how ridicolously small bitcoin's current userbase and value really is. If even facebook, a simple webservice to exchange gossip, can reach a market value of $41 Billion and that within 3/4/5? years, then a bitcoin should absolutely be worth more than 5000$ in 20 years. I mean it's a new paradigm of currency. How can it be worth less than "a simple webservice to exchange gossip"?

[interlagos]

Can bitcoins break $5,000 in 20 years?

I think everybody forgets one little detail in this train of thought - the dollar will be long gone by that time!
Or you seriously believe Chinese will keep buying US debt for another 20 years... 

[btcnode]

Can bitcoins break $5,000 in 20 years?

I think everybody forgets one little detail in this train of thought - the dollar will be long gone by that time!
Or you seriously believe Chinese will keep buying US debt for another 20 years... 

Very valid point

[gochk]

Not trying to be Johnny RainCloud but with so little, virtually not much adoption of btc; what makes you think it'll go anywhere near $100; let alone $5000? Just wondering ... what is the basis of this speculation?

[arklan]

Not trying to be Johnny RainCloud but with so little, virtually not much adoption of btc; what makes you think it'll go anywhere near $100; let alone $5000? Just wondering ... what is the basis of this speculation?

look at it this way: in three years, btc went from the initial creation to where we are now. what, then, does 20 years hold? personally, i haven't the foggiest.

[kjj]

Can bitcoins break $5,000 in 20 years?

I think everybody forgets one little detail in this train of thought - the dollar will be long gone by that time!
Or you seriously believe Chinese will keep buying US debt for another 20 years... 

I would be pretty surprised if China wasn't still buying US debt in 2032.  What the hell else are they going to do with their dollars?

[misterbigg]

There's already solid competition in namecoins, litecoins etc.

Oh really? Where's the equivalent of MtGox for litecoins? And namecoins aren't a currency.

[jojo69]

Can bitcoins break $5,000 in 20 years?

I think everybody forgets one little detail in this train of thought - the dollar will be long gone by that time!
Or you seriously believe Chinese will keep buying US debt for another 20 years... 

I would be pretty surprised if China wasn't still buying US debt in 2032.  What the hell else are they going to do with their dollars?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias

[kjj]

Can bitcoins break $5,000 in 20 years?

I think everybody forgets one little detail in this train of thought - the dollar will be long gone by that time!
Or you seriously believe Chinese will keep buying US debt for another 20 years... 

I would be pretty surprised if China wasn't still buying US debt in 2032.  What the hell else are they going to do with their dollars?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias

What the hell else are they going to do with their dollars?

[labestiol]

Invest in Africa/Asia/South America, Stockpile natural ressources (oil, precious metals, rare earth metals, ...). They already started doing so
And do you think the trade imbalance will stay like that for 20 years ?

[labestiol]

There's already solid competition in namecoins, litecoins etc.

And namecoins aren't a currency.

Then what are they ? Can you give me some ? 

[GeoRW]

There's already solid competition in namecoins, litecoins etc.

Oh really? Where's the equivalent of MtGox for litecoins? And namecoins aren't a currency.

There are several exchanges for litecoins. None is so big as MtGox in bitcoin world which is actually better for the whole economy not to be dependent so much on one exchange and price manipulation movements there. Regarding namecoins, bitcoins can also be considered as a commodity, not a currency, in digital world it really doesn't matter. BTW, you can add Linden dollars and Liberty Reserve to the list and more are coming as we speak I wish bitcoin all the best (I own a bunch of them and its a intrepid pioneer in this field) but bitcoin will not be the only electronic currency in the future and it's quite probable that it won't be the biggest one either. There's still long way ahead and who knows what the future holds 

[jojo69]

What the hell else are they going to do with their dollars?

what dollars?

there hasn't been a "dollar" since 1935

all they hold are electronic notations representing that they are owed federal reserve notes

[kjj]

What the hell else are they going to do with their dollars?

what dollars?

there hasn't been a "dollar" since 1935

all they hold are electronic notations representing that they are owed federal reserve notes

There are no bitcoins either.  What's your point?

And for the record, there are dollars.  I've got one in my wallet that was minted in 2010.

[Steve]

If bitcoin manages to survive 20 years, it won't be worth $5,000...it will be more like $100,000.  If it survives another 5 years, it should easily top $5,000.

[jojo69]

What the hell else are they going to do with their dollars?

what dollars?

there hasn't been a "dollar" since 1935

all they hold are electronic notations representing that they are owed federal reserve notes

There are no bitcoins either.  What's your point?

And for the record, there are dollars.  I've got one in my wallet that was minted in 2010.

"the United States dollar was defined as a unit of weight equaling 371 4/16th grains (24.057 grams) of pure silver"

that thing in your pocket is a debt instrument

I will attempt to stop being obtuse.  I find it vanishingly unlikely that the United States federal reserve note will exist in 20 years, certainly not as a world reserve currency.  What will China do with the value owed them?  Choke on it or go to war most likely.

[kjj]

What the hell else are they going to do with their dollars?

what dollars?

there hasn't been a "dollar" since 1935

all they hold are electronic notations representing that they are owed federal reserve notes

There are no bitcoins either.  What's your point?

And for the record, there are dollars.  I've got one in my wallet that was minted in 2010.

"the United States dollar was defined as a unit of weight equaling 371 4/16th grains (24.057 grams) of pure silver"

that thing in your pocket is a debt instrument

I will attempt to stop being obtuse.  I find it vanishingly unlikely that the United States federal reserve note will exist in 20 years, certainly not as a world reserve currency.  What will China do with the value owed them?  Choke on it or go to war most likely.

No, I promise you that the ounce of silver in my wallet stamped "One Dollar" by the U.S. Mint is not in any way, shape or form a debt instrument.  It is really a dollar.

You are being pedantic about dollars.  In everyday usage, the word "dollar" is very well understood, whether it be a silver eagle, a paper FRN, an entry in your bank's computer, or a treasury bond/bill/note.  For what it's worth, I totally agree that most dollars are not really dollars.  That doesn't change anything.

I would be amazed if the dollar doesn't still exist in 20 years.  As fucked up as our financial and economic systems are, it turns out that pretty much the whole rest of the world is even more fucked up.  China thinks so too.  They keep buying our debt because it is the best place to park their export earnings.  If they didn't think so, they would FOREX their USD away as they came in.

[jojo69]

Aha, very well, your SAE is actually a bit more than a dollar, and I will admit to being pedantic.

I am interested to know how you think the current debt load is going to be repaid?