14 miilion BTC, today

[countryfree]

March, the 30th of 2015.
Today's a big day. The 14 millionth BTC shall be mined in a few hours. This may be terrible news.

This equals to two thirds of all BTC, and I wonder if this was what Satoshi Nakamoto had in mind. When I discovered BTC, I learned the idea of a money supply which would be fully controlled and slow-growing. This over 150 years, but today we see that after only 6 years, less than one tenth of the supposed time to mine all BTC, two thirds have already been mined. Was that the plan? Or could there be too many miners, accelerating the growth of money supply faster than planned?

[Lauda]

What are you talking about. This isn't terrible news. We are still on plan, just moving a bit  faster than anticipated. It's not like we reached 14M 5 years earlier than supposed to.
We should end 2016 with ~15,750,000 . That's the projection, but how much will it be off I do not know.

Yes this day is significant, and yes we've already have a thread about it.

[solex]

Was that the plan? Or could there be too many miners, accelerating the growth of money supply faster than planned?

FFS. Seriously. You are a hero member - time to get reading!
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

[Agestorzrxx]

It's not a big deal, nothing changed.
There are still 1/3 of Btc waiting to mine.

[Searing]

March, the 30th of 2015.
Today's a big day. The 14 millionth BTC shall be mined in a few hours. This may be terrible news.

This equals to two thirds of all BTC, and I wonder if this was what Satoshi Nakamoto had in mind. When I discovered BTC, I learned the idea of a money supply which would be fully controlled and slow-growing. This over 150 years, but today we see that after only 6 years, less than one tenth of the supposed time to mine all BTC, two thirds have already been mined. Was that the plan? Or could there be too many miners, accelerating the growth of money supply faster than planned?

Not sure if this means all that much...it is like we have 2 camps..the "holders' who either drank the kool aid (like me) on BTC (also me LTC) and can't jump out at this price
even if they lost the faith..or the large mines that just plain cash out each day

seems like there is too much coin and not enough adoption ...thus in my inexpert view the steady 'wear/leakage' of price

also does not help that many (me included) that are holding are NOT putting any more $$$ into coin at this time and of course the big data halls mining to usd are not
either

so heck 2/3 of all bitcoin mined does not mean a lot when there seems to be too much of it about in some manner ..driving the price down

(again I don't know wtf I'm talking about....so take this with a big dash of salt...but from where I sit ..this 'sideways and slow slip down could go on for months yet)

[Biomech]

March, the 30th of 2015.
Today's a big day. The 14 millionth BTC shall be mined in a few hours. This may be terrible news.

This equals to two thirds of all BTC, and I wonder if this was what Satoshi Nakamoto had in mind. When I discovered BTC, I learned the idea of a money supply which would be fully controlled and slow-growing. This over 150 years, but today we see that after only 6 years, less than one tenth of the supposed time to mine all BTC, two thirds have already been mined. Was that the plan? Or could there be too many miners, accelerating the growth of money supply faster than planned?

Uh..
every 2016 blocks bitcoin adjusts the difficulty to maintain the growth at the planned speed. Every four years the block reward drops in half. it's a rough representation of gold mining, which was once easy and now requires massive amounts of effort and power. We're at most a couple of days off the projection, and I doubt even that.

[countryfree]

What are you talking about. This isn't terrible news. We are still on plan, just moving a bit  faster than anticipated. It's not like we reached 14M 5 years earlier than supposed to.
We should end 2015 with ~15,750,000 . That's the projection, but how much will it be off I do not know.

Yes this day is significant, and yes we've already have a thread about it.

Yes, that's what I'm saying. Moving a bit faster than planned. I understand we're not much off the plan, but probably enough to be concerned.
Sorry about the other thread. Hadn't seen it.

[countryfree]

We're at most a couple of days off the projection, and I doubt even that.

Well, if it's only a couple days, I guess that's all right.

[Lauda]

Uh..
every 2016 blocks bitcoin adjusts the difficulty to maintain the growth at the planned speed. Every four years the block reward drops in half. it's a rough representation of gold mining, which was once easy and now requires massive amounts of effort and power. We're at most a couple of days off the projection, and I doubt even that.

Are you sure about this? From what I've been paying attention it's much more than that. I think that we're 10-15 days off if not more. The halving was supposed to be in August 2016, but it looks like it's coming in July.

Yes, that's what I'm saying. Moving a bit faster than planned. I understand we're not much off the plan, but probably enough to be concerned.
Sorry about the other thread. Hadn't seen it.

No. It is still not significant enough to be concerned. Well if anyone really thought about how the mining process works, he would have expected this.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1005657.0

[Biomech]

Uh..
every 2016 blocks bitcoin adjusts the difficulty to maintain the growth at the planned speed. Every four years the block reward drops in half. it's a rough representation of gold mining, which was once easy and now requires massive amounts of effort and power. We're at most a couple of days off the projection, and I doubt even that.

Are you sure about this? From what I've been paying attention it's much more than that. I think that we're 10-15 days off if not more. The halving was supposed to be in August 2016, but it looks like it's coming in July.

Yes, that's what I'm saying. Moving a bit faster than planned. I understand we're not much off the plan, but probably enough to be concerned.
Sorry about the other thread. Hadn't seen it.

No. It is still not significant enough to be concerned. Well if anyone really thought about how the mining process works, he would have expected this.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1005657.0

You may be right. the arms race did seriously accelerate a few of the difficulty periods. But as it leveled off, I've also seen a fair number of hour long blocks, so, dunno. I'll leave that to better or at least more rested minds for tonight. Even if it were a couple of weeks, though, it's hardly huge. It accelerates the halving, which reduces the inflation.

Personally, I think that many alts handle difficulty and block times far better with short retargeting times. I think bitcoin would be improved by the addition of something like Kimoto's gravity well. But I still don't see it's current paradigm as particularly problematic.

[countryfree]

Uh..
every 2016 blocks bitcoin adjusts the difficulty to maintain the growth at the planned speed. Every four years the block reward drops in half. it's a rough representation of gold mining, which was once easy and now requires massive amounts of effort and power. We're at most a couple of days off the projection, and I doubt even that.

Are you sure about this? From what I've been paying attention it's much more than that. I think that we're 10-15 days off if not more. The halving was supposed to be in August 2016, but it looks like it's coming in July.

Yes, that's what I'm saying. Moving a bit faster than planned. I understand we're not much off the plan, but probably enough to be concerned.
Sorry about the other thread. Hadn't seen it.

No. It is still not significant enough to be concerned. Well if anyone really thought about how the mining process works, he would have expected this.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1005657.0

Maybe I'm an investor's worrying too much, but when I checked BTC's price this morning, I saw that we were so close to 14 million BTC, and that came as a shock. So soon! I guess, I hadn't been giving much attention to this question lately.

I overreacted, and I suggest to close this discussion, as there's another topic.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1005657.0

[Q7]

I don't think satoshi expected this but anyway it shouldn't be a cause of concern as the economy will by right adjust itself. I guess he must be proud to see the hash rate going up to current level

[Amph]

now the last 1/3 should be interesting, seeing the chart it would require  about the same amount of time(2009-2015) to produce less than 30% of the current coins in circulation, this mean that the price should rise significantly, because there won't be many new coins in circulation

this plus the halving(2016) should bring bitcoin to a good position, in value

[acquafredda]

There's no guarantee behind someone's status in this forum.
We can all say stupid things from time to time.

We're passing a strange idea here: since someone is a Hero Member he/she can't say bullshits.
Let's make it clear and let's base ourselves solely on what is said forgetting about someone's status.

I hope this make sense.

And anyway, the race is still long... 

[WhatTheGox]

March, the 30th of 2015.
Today's a big day. The 14 millionth BTC shall be mined in a few hours. This may be terrible news.

This equals to two thirds of all BTC, and I wonder if this was what Satoshi Nakamoto had in mind. When I discovered BTC, I learned the idea of a money supply which would be fully controlled and slow-growing. This over 150 years, but today we see that after only 6 years, less than one tenth of the supposed time to mine all BTC, two thirds have already been mined. Was that the plan? Or could there be too many miners, accelerating the growth of money supply faster than planned?

Its pretty cool, the difficulty to mine is going through the roof atm also, looks like someone has a ton of free electricity or some new technology has come online.

[Minerjoe]

March, the 30th of 2015.
Today's a big day. The 14 millionth BTC shall be mined in a few hours. This may be terrible news.

This equals to two thirds of all BTC, and I wonder if this was what Satoshi Nakamoto had in mind. When I discovered BTC, I learned the idea of a money supply which would be fully controlled and slow-growing. This over 150 years, but today we see that after only 6 years, less than one tenth of the supposed time to mine all BTC, two thirds have already been mined. Was that the plan? Or could there be too many miners, accelerating the growth of money supply faster than planned?

Dude, you should really read a bit how things work. No matter how much hash you turn on, the amount of new coins being created is always the same, it only depends on reward reduction.
It s not like having one factory which produces 10 units and if you add the second one, you produces 20 units. It s ALWAYS the same, additional hash just redistributes coins.

So nothing goes faster then planned. It goes exactly according to the plan.

[johnyj]

Actually since the majority of coins are mined in the first 8 years, which give early adopter a large advantage, some people think this is a pump and dump scheme

If the shrink of supply is more gradual, not 50% each 4 years, but 33%, or 25%, it would still have limited total supply, the coin distribution will be more evenly spread out over time. However, that would also mean that there will be heavy inflation during first 20 years of the bitcoin introduction, so that it will take much longer time to reach the claimed deflative currency status, maybe too long to show any advantage over fiat money, thus failed before it reach mainstream adoption

With current scheme, the inflation will drop quickly below 4% after 2016 reward halving, thus already reach a parity with fiat money under normal situation, after that it is all uncharted water  

[9kv]

we're fine, this is planned.

[redsn0w]

now the last 1/3 should be interesting, seeing the chart it would require  about the same amount of time(2009-2015) to produce less than 30% of the current coins in circulation, this mean that the price should rise significantly, because there won't be many new coins in circulation

this plus the halving(2016) should bring bitcoin to a good position, in value

In the next 5 years we should expect also a raise of the bitcoin value, I think it is needed for the bit-economy itself and why not it will bring a lot of new person in the bitcoin world. I don't know how many coins exactly are in circulation but I think if we "remove" the ~1 mln (mined by satoshi and few other users) + all the bitcoin lost (due the cancelation or loss of the private key) it will remain ~12.8 mln of bitcoin... or am I wrong?


PS: correct the thread title "14 miilion BTC, today"

[Lauda]

dafug?

are you blind?

Excellent argument you've got there, thank you for contributing. I've just combined the wrong year with the wrong supply.
2015 = 14,437,500

You may be right. the arms race did seriously accelerate a few of the difficulty periods. But as it leveled off, I've also seen a fair number of hour long blocks, so, dunno. I'll leave that to better or at least more rested minds for tonight. Even if it were a couple of weeks, though, it's hardly huge. It accelerates the halving, which reduces the inflation.

Personally, I think that many alts handle difficulty and block times far better with short retargeting times. I think bitcoin would be improved by the addition of something like Kimoto's gravity well. But I still don't see it's current paradigm as particularly problematic.

Overall we have moved forward, but it has slowed down I think. Personally I can't wait for the halving. The sooner the better.