I cant imagine a plausible chain of events preventing btc from reaching the moon

[mcplums]

...apart from growth of an altcoin instead (couldnt fit this in the title). But even that seems increasingly unlikely these days, more and more we hear of new coins being built on top of the bitcoin blockchain instead of their own thing.

Please could someone detail a plausible chain of events, other than an altcoin, preventing bitcoin from reaching dat moon?

[tonygal]

Well, the community is still quite small. I can easily imagine that people just loose interest,
one after the other. And if the community shrinks quickly, many people will sell because they
are afraid the experiment is over. At that point, it can not be stopped..

Pure speculation, though..

[Raystonn]

Those who can hang on through the shake-out will be quite happy.

[Morecoin Freeman]

Ok, then buy every bitcoin.

[--Encrypted--]

Please could someone detail a plausible chain of events, other than an altcoin, preventing bitcoin from reaching dat moon?

I think US declaring bitcoin as illegal followed by a huge dump of Mtgox stolen bitcoins followed by panic selling could do that.

[Amph]

a major flaw in the code(like the bug of 2010), or 51%, any bitcoin current weakness could generally lead to it's death and thus not reaching the moon

this is an interesting read, even so bugs like those should not stop bitcoin from reaching the moon

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Common_Vulnerabilities_and_Exposures

[tonygal]

Please could someone detail a plausible chain of events, other than an altcoin, preventing bitcoin from reaching dat moon?

I think US declaring bitcoin as illegal followed by a huge dump of Mtgox stolen bitcoins followed by panic selling could do that.

I agree, US declaring bitcoin as illegal would be a terrible blow..

[coinableS]

Those who can hang on through the shake-out will be quite happy.

All of 2014 was a shake out. How many more shake outs do we need? Personally I'll hodl all the way to zero. If you think about a government or big company that feels threatened by bitcoin you can come up with possible ways they would try to hurt the currency. They can't stop the internet without causing serious collateral damage, so that's not an option... what else, bad press? It looks like demonizing bitcoin has already been tried and it hasn't stopped bitcoin... so they are left with trying to suppress or drop the price. So they can try to drop the price as long as they like, I'm not selling. You can't put a lid on a rocket.

[gentlemand]

A greater number of people who are involved now can't find a use for it in their lives, or don't want to use it. Pretty simple really.

[uki]

very easy: for now all the major rises and dumps were connected to illegal or semi-legal businesses and money laundering allegations were surrounding bitcoin. If it stays like that for next five years it is very easy to imagine that the interest will fade and you miss your moon.

[pleaseexplain]

it can only go the moon if it gets an 1.extremely high transactional use and/or 2. gets a high stored value (like gold)

re 1 the first world countries (US for example) can already do all the transactions they need  without bitcoin. It may well save fees but most people use credit cards for access to the credit so it will never really compete with visa etc. In the third world where bitcoin is touted as the saviour from western union type companies who charge higher handling fees most of that "fee' goes to pay for the final handover of the money eg having an office in the place. It provides the 'security" people need that they are to get their money easily, quickly and in their local currency. so I do not see western union under major threat. if they do see a threat to some market share they will react in some way that lessens bitcoins effect (and therefore uptake)


re 2 it could get some sort of stored value through the use of the blockchain but I see other ideas coming along (eg etherum) that may be better here- at the very least they will eat into bitcoins potential.
also the US dollar I understand moves about 10% per annum. Bitcoin rises and falls fast and in big chunks. Makes it great for speculators but terrifies the people who store things under the mattress as well as institutional investors. Until that stops there is not much chance people will value it as a store of wealth and the longer that goes on as other posters has said bitcoin may just become irrelevant except to the very few who love the concept of it for itself

[ekissane]

it can only go the moon if it gets an 1.extremely high transactional use and/or 2. gets a high stored value (like gold)

re 1 the first world countries (US for example) can already do all the transactions they need  without bitcoin. It may well save fees but most people use credit cards for access to the credit so it will never really compete with visa etc. In the third world where bitcoin is touted as the saviour from western union type companies who charge higher handling fees most of that "fee' goes to pay for the final handover of the money eg having an office in the place. It provides the 'security" people need that they are to get their money easily, quickly and in their local currency. so I do not see western union under major threat. if they do see a threat to some market share they will react in some way that lessens bitcoins effect (and therefore uptake)


re 2 it could get some sort of stored value through the use of the blockchain but I see other ideas coming along (eg etherum) that may be better here- at the very least they will eat into bitcoins potential.
also the US dollar I understand moves about 10% per annum. Bitcoin rises and falls fast and in big chunks. Makes it great for speculators but terrifies the people who store things under the mattress as well as institutional investors. Until that stops there is not much chance people will value it as a store of wealth and the longer that goes on as other posters has said bitcoin may just become irrelevant except to the very few who love the concept of it for itself

Your 2 scenarios are reasons why bitcoin will succeed in my opinion.
1.  Transaction fees are minimal with bitcoin.  Credit cards cost retailers money and I'm taxed €50 a year for my credit card!  Western Union need to make money.  Cut them out of the equation and the only loser is Western Union which is already happening.
2.  Think of it like gold only transportable so easily.  Gold has value so why not bitcoin.  Point made.

[criptix]

well i will sign this the moment bitcoin hits 21 million user 

[pleaseexplain]

it can only go the moon if it gets an 1.extremely high transactional use and/or 2. gets a high stored value (like gold)

re 1 the first world countries (US for example) can already do all the transactions they need  without bitcoin. It may well save fees but most people use credit cards for access to the credit so it will never really compete with visa etc. In the third world where bitcoin is touted as the saviour from western union type companies who charge higher handling fees most of that "fee' goes to pay for the final handover of the money eg having an office in the place. It provides the 'security" people need that they are to get their money easily, quickly and in their local currency. so I do not see western union under major threat. if they do see a threat to some market share they will react in some way that lessens bitcoins effect (and therefore uptake)


re 2 it could get some sort of stored value through the use of the blockchain but I see other ideas coming along (eg etherum) that may be better here- at the very least they will eat into bitcoins potential.
also the US dollar I understand moves about 10% per annum. Bitcoin rises and falls fast and in big chunks. Makes it great for speculators but terrifies the people who store things under the mattress as well as institutional investors. Until that stops there is not much chance people will value it as a store of wealth and the longer that goes on as other posters has said bitcoin may just become irrelevant except to the very few who love the concept of it for itself

Your 2 scenarios are reasons why bitcoin will succeed in my opinion.
1.  Transaction fees are minimal with bitcoin.  Credit cards cost retailers money and I'm taxed €50 a year for my credit card!  Western Union need to make money.  Cut them out of the equation and the only loser is Western Union which is already happening.
2.  Think of it like gold only transportable so easily.  Gold has value so why not bitcoin.  Point made.

I am not so sure.

1. I do not use a credit card as i do not want to pay the fees nor do I need the credit facility but I use a debit card that comes free from my bank. That allows me to do electronic transactions etc ie much of what bitcoin "offers'. So you can do the same and save €50 a year but presumably you want/need their funds (credit) part as well.
re cutting western union out of the equation - there will always be a place for a western union type operation. Bitcoin will eat into their market but only at the edges. I also think by the time bitcoin becomes strong/large enough to compete with the likes of western unions it will carry some non mining costs that people will want payment for. ie if you want exchanges to be trustworthy they will have to have some sort of regulation and that brings with it compliance costs etc.

2. that something is easily transportable is a reason for adopting it and using it but does not make it inherently valuable. 

[pereira4]

Well, the community is still quite small. I can easily imagine that people just loose interest,
one after the other. And if the community shrinks quickly, many people will sell because they
are afraid the experiment is over. At that point, it can not be stopped..

Pure speculation, though..

There's exciting stuff happening daily and VC capital is only going higher. Unless you are one of the braindead guys that only stare at bitcoinwisdom.com 24/7 chances are you'll not get bored of riding this one.

[ekissane]

it can only go the moon if it gets an 1.extremely high transactional use and/or 2. gets a high stored value (like gold)

re 1 the first world countries (US for example) can already do all the transactions they need  without bitcoin. It may well save fees but most people use credit cards for access to the credit so it will never really compete with visa etc. In the third world where bitcoin is touted as the saviour from western union type companies who charge higher handling fees most of that "fee' goes to pay for the final handover of the money eg having an office in the place. It provides the 'security" people need that they are to get their money easily, quickly and in their local currency. so I do not see western union under major threat. if they do see a threat to some market share they will react in some way that lessens bitcoins effect (and therefore uptake)


re 2 it could get some sort of stored value through the use of the blockchain but I see other ideas coming along (eg etherum) that may be better here- at the very least they will eat into bitcoins potential.
also the US dollar I understand moves about 10% per annum. Bitcoin rises and falls fast and in big chunks. Makes it great for speculators but terrifies the people who store things under the mattress as well as institutional investors. Until that stops there is not much chance people will value it as a store of wealth and the longer that goes on as other posters has said bitcoin may just become irrelevant except to the very few who love the concept of it for itself

Your 2 scenarios are reasons why bitcoin will succeed in my opinion.
1.  Transaction fees are minimal with bitcoin.  Credit cards cost retailers money and I'm taxed €50 a year for my credit card!  Western Union need to make money.  Cut them out of the equation and the only loser is Western Union which is already happening.
2.  Think of it like gold only transportable so easily.  Gold has value so why not bitcoin.  Point made.

I am not so sure.

1. I do not use a credit card as i do not want to pay the fees nor do I need the credit facility but I use a debit card that comes free from my bank. That allows me to do electronic transactions etc ie much of what bitcoin "offers'. So you can do the same and save €50 a year but presumably you want/need their funds (credit) part as well.
re cutting western union out of the equation - there will always be a place for a western union type operation. Bitcoin will eat into their market but only at the edges. I also think by the time bitcoin becomes strong/large enough to compete with the likes of western unions it will carry some non mining costs that people will want payment for. ie if you want exchanges to be trustworthy they will have to have some sort of regulation and that brings with it compliance costs etc.

2. that something is easily transportable is a reason for adopting it and using it but does not make it inherently valuable. 

A lot of people have company credit cards which are paid off automatically and still require the €50 tax.  Notwithstanding that, debit cards also incur that €50 annual tax.  Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
But you have got to agree that cutting the middleman i.e. Western Union helps everybody except Western Union.  Why will there always be a place for Western Union?  Why would bitcoin have any 'non mining cost'  when it's peer to peer (no middleman taking his cut)?
Gold has as no inherent value either.  Only because it's rare.  Bitcoin is also rare but far easier to transport so therefore in my opinion a better store of wealth.
It's the internet baby!  Prepare for BIG change.

[pleaseexplain]

it can only go the moon if it gets an 1.extremely high transactional use and/or 2. gets a high stored value (like gold)

re 1 the first world countries (US for example) can already do all the transactions they need  without bitcoin. It may well save fees but most people use credit cards for access to the credit so it will never really compete with visa etc. In the third world where bitcoin is touted as the saviour from western union type companies who charge higher handling fees most of that "fee' goes to pay for the final handover of the money eg having an office in the place. It provides the 'security" people need that they are to get their money easily, quickly and in their local currency. so I do not see western union under major threat. if they do see a threat to some market share they will react in some way that lessens bitcoins effect (and therefore uptake)


re 2 it could get some sort of stored value through the use of the blockchain but I see other ideas coming along (eg etherum) that may be better here- at the very least they will eat into bitcoins potential.
also the US dollar I understand moves about 10% per annum. Bitcoin rises and falls fast and in big chunks. Makes it great for speculators but terrifies the people who store things under the mattress as well as institutional investors. Until that stops there is not much chance people will value it as a store of wealth and the longer that goes on as other posters has said bitcoin may just become irrelevant except to the very few who love the concept of it for itself

Your 2 scenarios are reasons why bitcoin will succeed in my opinion.
1.  Transaction fees are minimal with bitcoin.  Credit cards cost retailers money and I'm taxed €50 a year for my credit card!  Western Union need to make money.  Cut them out of the equation and the only loser is Western Union which is already happening.
2.  Think of it like gold only transportable so easily.  Gold has value so why not bitcoin.  Point made.

I am not so sure.

1. I do not use a credit card as i do not want to pay the fees nor do I need the credit facility but I use a debit card that comes free from my bank. That allows me to do electronic transactions etc ie much of what bitcoin "offers'. So you can do the same and save €50 a year but presumably you want/need their funds (credit) part as well.
re cutting western union out of the equation - there will always be a place for a western union type operation. Bitcoin will eat into their market but only at the edges. I also think by the time bitcoin becomes strong/large enough to compete with the likes of western unions it will carry some non mining costs that people will want payment for. ie if you want exchanges to be trustworthy they will have to have some sort of regulation and that brings with it compliance costs etc.

2. that something is easily transportable is a reason for adopting it and using it but does not make it inherently valuable. 

A lot of people have company credit cards which are paid off automatically and still require the €50 tax.  Notwithstanding that, debit cards also incur that €50 annual tax.  Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
But you have got to agree that cutting the middleman i.e. Western Union helps everybody except Western Union.  Why will there always be a place for Western Union?  Why would bitcoin have any 'non mining cost'  when it's peer to peer (no middleman taking his cut)?
Gold has as no inherent value either.  Only because it's rare.  Bitcoin is also rare but far easier to transport so therefore in my opinion a better store of wealth.
It's the internet baby!  Prepare for BIG change.

re western union.
have you ever seen western union working in third world countries?. there actually provide something - they are not just middlemen taking a free margin. peer to peer is a catchy concept but it works fine if you have bitcoin and the other person wants bitcoin. once one or other turns it into fiat for example fees come into play. also bitcoin has a long way to go to get reputable exchanges etc. its time enough for the wider market place to adapt to its presence and lessen its impact.
re store of wealth  - the price of bitcoin is about US$250. Can you tell me what share of that you believe to be is its store of wealth? I think its nil or close to it and the whole $250 is its speculated transactional value which I see declining to double figures

[futureofbitcoin]

It's really too simple. Nothing happens then people lose interest.

[randy8777]

It's really too simple. Nothing happens then people lose interest.

people are expecting too much. they want to see the price going up and up and up just to sell their coins.
why not just relax and have patience. if nothing happens in a month it doesn't mean people losing interest.

[Meuh6879]

time ... always ... win.
but, war can be a reset event in few cases ...