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Author Topic: Humans aren't rational. Bitcoin won't be a % of world economy, but a multiple.  (Read 2658 times)
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April 04, 2015, 08:46:51 AM
 #21

Interesting point by the OP. BTC is both a speculative asset and a currency and then there are those parts we don't exactly understand. The market cap, so to speak, is the perceived/speculative value combined with the actual value. The latter being a bit too soon to say. Just supply and demand, with some early adopter quirks thrown in. (I.e. They have lots!)

At this time early adopters might have some downward pressure on BTC due to selling, along with current miner selling. It is going to take some time to see where she goes.

And in the near future there will be threads making fun of those who were making fun of BTC e.g. The misunderstood transactions per second post above with the old lady hunter, lol.

He who laughs last, laughs loudest. Careful careful...

BTC = Black Swan.
BTC = Antifragile - "Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Robust is not the opposite of fragile.
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April 04, 2015, 09:54:08 AM
 #22

Interesting point by the OP. BTC is both a speculative asset and a currency and then there are those parts we don't exactly understand. The market cap, so to speak, is the perceived/speculative value combined with the actual value. The latter being a bit too soon to say. Just supply and demand, with some early adopter quirks thrown in. (I.e. They have lots!)

At this time early adopters might have some downward pressure on BTC due to selling, along with current miner selling. It is going to take some time to see where she goes.

And in the near future there will be threads making fun of those who were making fun of BTC e.g. The misunderstood transactions per second post above with the old lady hunter, lol.

He who laughs last, laughs loudest. Careful careful...

how long do you think it will take early adopters to sell their stash. i imagine they sold quite a bit at the $1k peak but there is still so much in their hands. there might also be early adopters waiting for when bitcoin really takes off. these dumps allow us to make profit.
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April 04, 2015, 09:58:10 AM
Last edit: April 05, 2015, 12:53:41 PM by uki
 #23

Interesting point by the OP. BTC is both a speculative asset and a currency and then there are those parts we don't exactly understand. The market cap, so to speak, is the perceived/speculative value combined with the actual value. The latter being a bit too soon to say. Just supply and demand, with some early adopter quirks thrown in. (I.e. They have lots!)

At this time early adopters might have some downward pressure on BTC due to selling, along with current miner selling. It is going to take some time to see where she goes.

And in the near future there will be threads making fun of those who were making fun of BTC e.g. The misunderstood transactions per second post above with the old lady hunter, lol.

He who laughs last, laughs loudest. Careful careful...

how long do you think it will take early adopters to sell their stash. i imagine they sold quite a bit at the $1k peak but there is still so much in their hands. there might also be early adopters waiting for when bitcoin really takes off. these dumps allow us to make profit.
early adopters won't be selling much at the current prices, if they haven't sold around the ATH, let alone cases when someone urgently needs money.
On the other hand, what Bitcoin really needs is more reasons for adoption, without that it will never really take off and the early adopters may further bury it, if they get disappointed and decide to cash out.

this space is intentionally left blank
Its About Sharing
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April 04, 2015, 01:21:27 PM
 #24

Interesting point by the OP. BTC is both a speculative asset and a currency and then there are those parts we don't exactly understand. The market cap, so to speak, is the perceived/speculative value combined with the actual value. The latter being a bit too soon to say. Just supply and demand, with some early adopter quirks thrown in. (I.e. They have lots!)

At this time early adopters might have some downward pressure on BTC due to selling, along with current miner selling. It is going to take some time to see where she goes.

And in the near future there will be threads making fun of those who were making fun of BTC e.g. The misunderstood transactions per second post above with the old lady hunter, lol.

He who laughs last, laughs loudest. Careful careful...

how long do you think it will take early adopters to sell their stash. i imagine they sold quite a bit at the $1k peak but there is still so much in their hands. there might also be early adopters waiting for when bitcoin really takes off. these dumps allow us to make profit.
early adopters won't be selling much at the current prices, if they haven't sold around the ATH, let alone cases when someone urgently needs money.
On the other hand, what Bitcoin really needs is more reasons adoption, without that it will never really take off and the early adopters may further bury it, if they get disappointed and decide to cash out.

Some early adopters have 100's of thousands of coins. As long as they slowly sell some, I don't think it will hurt the price much, especially as interest rises.

Most of these early adopters appear to be liberal idealists... Thank God!!!

I imagine early adopters are going into anonymous coins as the writing is in the wall.
This space is just getting started, let the disruption continue.

My bet is in the next 6-12 months we see the next huge move up in price (followed by another correction). At that time those in now will be the last phase of early adopters imo.

BTC = Black Swan.
BTC = Antifragile - "Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Robust is not the opposite of fragile.
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April 05, 2015, 02:06:07 AM
Last edit: April 05, 2015, 03:15:30 AM by Tirapon
 #25

You forgot aliens!!

For all we know there are numerous alien species in this universe (and maybe even parallel universes) that could come to earth (or in a future human colony in the Milky Way) and embrace bitcoin! We wouldn't even have communication problems due to different languages with them since bitcoin is backed by math! Truly a borderless currency.

Imagine the potential there!

Not Aliens you fool. We're advanced AI's in a post singularity multiverse operating on a parallel blockchain. Satoshi just created a new Universe within a universe in a fractal like fashion. Right around the significant 2012 date predicted by the Mayans to be a significant shift in global consciousness. We made it. The Singularity is behind us. The future is bright.


lol mind blown???

Yeah well I'm only joking, we're clearly a highly evolved species of primate made of the same decaying organic matter as everything else on the planet.

And Aliens.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Chfoo9NBEow

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=53855.0

The universe is data.
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April 05, 2015, 02:23:57 AM
 #26

why are people so worried about early adopters dumping their coins? lets say every early adopter dumps their coins and drives bitcoin down to 1$ a coin. Why is this a bad thing? for me this would be awesome because I would buy tons of them. I think many people feel the same way. So go ahead and dump early adopters.
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April 05, 2015, 12:46:18 PM
 #27

You forgot aliens!!

For all we know there are numerous alien species in this universe (and maybe even parallel universes) that could come to earth (or in a future human colony in the Milky Way) and embrace bitcoin! We wouldn't even have communication problems due to different languages with them since bitcoin is backed by math! Truly a borderless currency.

Imagine the potential there!

Not Aliens you fool. We're advanced AI's in a post singularity multiverse operating on a parallel blockchain. Satoshi just created a new Universe within a universe in a fractal like fashion. Right around the significant 2012 date predicted by the Mayans to be a significant shift in global consciousness. We made it. The Singularity is behind us. The future is bright.


lol mind blown???

Yeah well I'm only joking, we're clearly a highly evolved species of primate made of the same decaying organic matter as everything else on the planet.

And Aliens.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Chfoo9NBEow

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=53855.0

The universe is data.
 
 
This is amazing and beautiful.  I am going to steal it and build upon it. 

Account is back under control of the real AmericanPegasus.
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April 05, 2015, 12:50:41 PM
 #28

Bitcoin will replace the gold standard eventually, since it's objectively speaking the best thing to base currency at. Gold is deprecated and makes no sense on a post internet digital world.
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April 05, 2015, 01:00:52 PM
 #29

why are people so worried about early adopters dumping their coins? lets say every early adopter dumps their coins and drives bitcoin down to 1$ a coin. Why is this a bad thing? for me this would be awesome because I would buy tons of them. I think many people feel the same way. So go ahead and dump early adopters.
Simple. going back to $1, there is no guarantee the price will ever rebound again. That would probably mean end of Bitcoin experiment.   

this space is intentionally left blank
Amph
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April 05, 2015, 03:44:59 PM
 #30

why are people so worried about early adopters dumping their coins? lets say every early adopter dumps their coins and drives bitcoin down to 1$ a coin. Why is this a bad thing? for me this would be awesome because I would buy tons of them. I think many people feel the same way. So go ahead and dump early adopters.
Simple. going back to $1, there is no guarantee the price will ever rebound again. That would probably mean end of Bitcoin experiment.   

that's not possible, because many early adopters bought at that price, they aren't so dumb to dump at the same price of which they bought their coins at

1-5-10... those are just stupid value, they will never happen as a consguence of early adopters dumping
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April 05, 2015, 09:05:50 PM
 #31

The early adopters took a pretty big risk.  I think they deserve any rewards they got/have for that risk.
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April 05, 2015, 09:32:11 PM
 #32

The early adopters took a pretty big risk.  I think they deserve any rewards they got/have for that risk.

It depends on what you consider big risk. Some of them bought a few $k worth of Bitcoin back in 2011-2012 and they have had a fantastic return.

You need to have steel hands to not sell your $5 per Bitcoin at the time the exchange rate is over $75 per Bitcoin.
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April 06, 2015, 10:16:16 PM
 #33

Quazillion dollars, mate! QUAZILLION, i tell ya!
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April 06, 2015, 10:39:35 PM
 #34

The early adopters took a pretty big risk.  I think they deserve any rewards they got/have for that risk.

you're so right
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April 07, 2015, 03:00:33 AM
 #35

The early adopters took a pretty big risk.  I think they deserve any rewards they got/have for that risk.

It depends on what you consider big risk. Some of them bought a few $k worth of Bitcoin back in 2011-2012 and they have had a fantastic return.

You need to have steel hands to not sell your $5 per Bitcoin at the time the exchange rate is over $75 per Bitcoin.
Not really. It just depends on what type of a person you are and what goals/motives you have.

You know, a few months ago I saw this guy screaming and jumping up and down at the lottery stand in a corner store, and I thought, hey, did this guy win the jackpot...

Well guess what, he won a whole 700 dollars. That's right, not 50 million, not 1 million, not even 10,000. Just 700. I saw him a couple days later at the store again, and he was telling people about the "great time" he had at the casino that weekend.

Would he have sold at $75, had he bought bitcoins at $5? No! He would've sold at $7. That's the kind of person you know will stay poor for the rest of their lives.

For me, I wouldn't even be excited if I got $50,000. That's not going to change my life in any way. I don't really need a new car or a vacation. I don't need $50,000. No big deal. So I know I won't sell until bitcoins become at least a certain amount. Even if bitcoin increases 50x from now, I won't even be tempted to sell (unless at that time I knew it was just a bubble, and I could buy back at a cheaper price).
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April 07, 2015, 03:11:21 AM
 #36

The early adopters took a pretty big risk.  I think they deserve any rewards they got/have for that risk.

It depends on what you consider big risk. Some of them bought a few $k worth of Bitcoin back in 2011-2012 and they have had a fantastic return.

You need to have steel hands to not sell your $5 per Bitcoin at the time the exchange rate is over $75 per Bitcoin.
Not really. It just depends on what type of a person you are and what goals/motives you have.

You know, a few months ago I saw this guy screaming and jumping up and down at the lottery stand in a corner store, and I thought, hey, did this guy win the jackpot...

Well guess what, he won a whole 700 dollars. That's right, not 50 million, not 1 million, not even 10,000. Just 700. I saw him a couple days later at the store again, and he was telling people about the "great time" he had at the casino that weekend.

Would he have sold at $75, had he bought bitcoins at $5? No! He would've sold at $7. That's the kind of person you know will stay poor for the rest of their lives.

For me, I wouldn't even be excited if I got $50,000. That's not going to change my life in any way. I don't really need a new car or a vacation. I don't need $50,000. No big deal. So I know I won't sell until bitcoins become at least a certain amount. Even if bitcoin increases 50x from now, I won't even be tempted to sell (unless at that time I knew it was just a bubble, and I could buy back at a cheaper price).

Literally, all you just said is the rich get richer and the poor get poorer with some random story inbetween. Congrats!
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April 07, 2015, 03:16:39 AM
 #37


Literally, all you just said is the rich get richer and the poor get poorer with some random story inbetween. Congrats!

Uh, not really. But even if that was true, so what? the vast majority of comments and opinions are not original. Are you going to congratulate every single one of them?
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April 07, 2015, 09:13:05 AM
 #38

The early adopters took a pretty big risk.  I think they deserve any rewards they got/have for that risk.

It depends on what you consider big risk. Some of them bought a few $k worth of Bitcoin back in 2011-2012 and they have had a fantastic return.

You need to have steel hands to not sell your $5 per Bitcoin at the time the exchange rate is over $75 per Bitcoin.

I bought at $6 and some more at $15 (looking back, they weren't even good prices for that time).  I mined in the GPU days as well, which took a fair bit of effort, so I was also mentally invested, not just financially.  When the price increased (can't remember the exact price now, it was a couple of years ago on Gox, but much higher than I'd paid), I withdrew to USD enough to get back my investment back plus a small treat.  The most BTC I've unloaded was to buy physical products, as it worked out cheaper than paying in USD (hindsight huh?).  As for all remaining coin, I have no intention of selling those (though I will transact with them for products).  The only exception is if I think a bubble is reaching stall speed, and I'd then only be selling to get more BTC at a later date - if I trust the exchanges not to fold on me.

There are other reasons I haven't factored of course, such is if medical cover was needed for myself/family/friend, or if it hasn't gained enough traction by the time I reach retirement would be two examples.
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