Summer Bubble

Well, it starts to look like a pattern, bitcoin starts to raise in June and drops dead in September. Wonder what causes this... summer holidays?
For those believing in miracles and claiming to not see the "J" shape of a bubble, just look at 1 year chart... you'll see it there, just by late July. [http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv]
Good news however, this time the bubble didn't went postal, just up to 13, maybe still go up to 15, so its drop will be "soften", perhaps to 4~5 USD for a while to recover to 7~8.

So yeah, bottom line: it's a great time to sell and welcome the new batch of bitcoiners. Let's see about next year, if it goes as before, they will become disappointed about bitcoin (making a hell of good time to buy) by October, learn how to use it by Jan-Feb 13 (if the World doesn't end in 2012 that is) and by Feb-Jun'13 we can expect a smooth bitcoin behavior before the summer peak again.
Just my 2 cents...

Grin

Quote from: BCEmporium on August 16, 2012, 03:05:13 AM

"4~5 USD" i lol'd

the crash wont pass 10...

summer rise is probably due to Tax returns coming in.

Well, this seams to be new batches of bitcoiners, as its users peaks also. This new folks tend to panic sell once they see it drop, therefore the crash is unusually hard. Remember last year? It crashed to almost 2 USD. Once the panic sell settles bitcoin corrects its behavior, if it goes like last year again.

Quote from: BCEmporium on August 16, 2012, 03:13:14 AM

ya but last year it went mush higher then it should have...

plus there was really good resons to sell

bad news everywhere!

now all this is a good old fashion correction

the rally to 10 was justified... and is a reasonable value for bitcoins given the new demand

i think this correction will be even smaller then the one from the 7.22 high

wishful thinking

give me $2 BTC anytime, i'll take 'em!

Yep we've seen like what, 2-3 data points and we already draw far reaching conclusions? Statistics 101 is your prescription.

Quote from: Vladimir on August 16, 2012, 03:28:33 AM

Yep we've seen like what, 2-3 data points and we already draw far reaching conclusions? Statistics 101 is your prescription.

Took the words right out of my mouth. Anyone who sees a pattern after two cycles should not be posting in "speculation" but in "magic"

Quote from: Electricbees on August 16, 2012, 03:34:02 AM

Winter is coming...

You're such a northern-hemispherian....

Quote from: Electricbees on August 16, 2012, 03:34:02 AM

Winter is coming...

The night is dark and full of terror.

maybe it is just me but it seems like someone is trying to prop the price up past 13 and will fail shortly.
just watching goxlive and moodies.

Quote from: fcmatt on August 16, 2012, 03:54:09 AM

maybe it is just me but it seems like someone is trying to prop the price up past 13 and will fail shortly.
just watching goxlive and moodies.

we'll need to test the top a few time b4 we go into a bear market

Quote from: adamstgBit on August 16, 2012, 03:57:46 AM

Quote from: fcmatt on August 16, 2012, 03:54:09 AM

maybe it is just me but it seems like someone is trying to prop the price up past 13 and will fail shortly.
just watching goxlive and moodies.

we'll need to test the top a few time b4 we go into a bear market

But we won't... triangle mode for a day or two, then breakout.

When someone wants to believe in something, he simple does... that's why we still have religion around. Same for speculation, actually speculation is more of a cancer than something good, and yes, it's mostly "belief" and "magic".
But when the trend is too good it means speculation is hitting the vital organs of the thing under speculation. When a value increases too suddenly and too much, it in fact reduces usability of the thing, make the thing that's trending up to actually worth less, it's just a matter of balance, like gold these late years, going sky high making it so expensive that no one dares to wear gold on its main function; jewelery... making it actually worthless as value depends on how people uses it to create demand. Same goes for BTC, those bumps just hurt the economy. But bottom line: nothing grows forever or towards the infinite and eventually usability and value will come to balance.

Quote from: BCEmporium on August 16, 2012, 03:05:13 AM

4 to 5 usd?

lol!!!!!!!!!!

keep dreaming Cheesy

People buy more drugs in the summer Wink

From the markets "down bellow", of the 2 I know to be still standing, I don't see where it may help on raise btc value, as the bigger one is hedged. Unless I'm that outdated and the other one has raised too and isn't hedged.

Quote from: Piper67 on August 16, 2012, 03:30:57 AM

Quote from: Vladimir on August 16, 2012, 03:28:33 AM

Yep we've seen like what, 2-3 data points and we already draw far reaching conclusions? Statistics 101 is your prescription.

Took the words right out of my mouth. Anyone who sees a pattern after two cycles should not be posting in "speculation" but in "magic"

Want magic sub-forum now.

someone sells, hoping rest will follow, if they don't follow, start telling it must go down because speculation is like religion and we like to believe in what we want =)

Oh no m8! I didn't sell. I'm one of the "primitive btc users", actually those bubbles makes me temporarily rich. Grin

The problem is that they hurt hard the market, by market I mean REAL economy markets, and not a bunch of "wizards" gathering at Hogwarts as speculators are, which relies more in a stable currency than what value the currency itself helds.