Summer Bubble

[ruski]

Oh no m8! I didn't sell. I'm one of the "primitive btc users", actually those bubbles makes me temporarily rich.  
The problem is that they hurt hard the market, by market I mean REAL economy markets, and not a bunch of "wizards" gathering at Hogwarts as speculators are, which relies more in a stable currency than what value the currency itself helds.

The bears and shorts are getting scared. Real scared.

How close is that big scary margin call? $1? $2? Are you already in over your head?

[Roger_Murdock]

While I agree stability is ultimately desirable, I believe the price needs to go up significantly for the market to sustain certain kinds of activity (e.g. settlement between significantly sized accounts globally). Having BTCUSD < $1000 puts serious limits on the kind of activity that can occur in the market. I'm really not interested in stability until that level, and I do view buying below that level as a long-term good bet. Even at that level, the total bitcoin monetary base would be worth $21 billion, which still leaves some room for gradual growth.

Exactly. Stability will be nice, but we shouldn't wish for stability at current prices.  The fact is that right now Bitcoin is, from a pure numbers perspective, a joke.  If we ever do reach $1000 per BTC, at those seemingly-lofty heights, Bitcoin will only be about 0.1% as big as the world's M1 money supply (i.e., still relatively small in the scheme of things).  If you believe that Bitcoin has the potential to change the world and replace our corrupt, destructive, and rapidly-imploding monetary system with something better, it needs to get bigger.  A LOT bigger. And if that means I have to become fabulously wealthy in the process, well that's just a sacrifice I'll have to make.

[ruski]

While I agree stability is ultimately desirable, I believe the price needs to go up significantly for the market to sustain certain kinds of activity (e.g. settlement between significantly sized accounts globally). Having BTCUSD < $1000 puts serious limits on the kind of activity that can occur in the market. I'm really not interested in stability until that level, and I do view buying below that level as a long-term good bet. Even at that level, the total bitcoin monetary base would be worth $21 billion, which still leaves some room for gradual growth.

Exactly. Stability will be nice, but we shouldn't wish for stability at current prices.  The fact is that right now Bitcoin is, from a pure numbers perspective, a joke.  If we ever do reach $1000 per BTC, at those seemingly-lofty heights, Bitcoin will only be about 0.1% as big as the world's M1 money supply (i.e., still relatively small in the scheme of things).  If you believe that Bitcoin has the potential to change the world and replace our corrupt, destructive, and rapidly-imploding monetary system with something better, it needs to get bigger.  A LOT bigger. And if that means I have to become fabulously wealthy in the process, well that's just a sacrifice I'll have to make.

Keep in mind that in your scenario, while 10 BTC may buy you $10000, $10000 may be better used as firewood if the current monetary system does collapse.

[Roger_Murdock]

While I agree stability is ultimately desirable, I believe the price needs to go up significantly for the market to sustain certain kinds of activity (e.g. settlement between significantly sized accounts globally). Having BTCUSD < $1000 puts serious limits on the kind of activity that can occur in the market. I'm really not interested in stability until that level, and I do view buying below that level as a long-term good bet. Even at that level, the total bitcoin monetary base would be worth $21 billion, which still leaves some room for gradual growth.

Exactly. Stability will be nice, but we shouldn't wish for stability at current prices.  The fact is that right now Bitcoin is, from a pure numbers perspective, a joke.  If we ever do reach $1000 per BTC, at those seemingly-lofty heights, Bitcoin will only be about 0.1% as big as the world's M1 money supply (i.e., still relatively small in the scheme of things).  If you believe that Bitcoin has the potential to change the world and replace our corrupt, destructive, and rapidly-imploding monetary system with something better, it needs to get bigger.  A LOT bigger. And if that means I have to become fabulously wealthy in the process, well that's just a sacrifice I'll have to make.

Keep in mind that in your scenario, while 10 BTC may buy you $10000, $10000 may be better used as firewood if the current monetary system does collapse.

Yeah, I expect both effects, i.e. bitcoins' price in fiat will rise because fiat is losing value and because bitcoins are gaining real purchasing power. And the collapse of the current monetary system is a matter of "when," not "if."

[fcmatt]

While I agree stability is ultimately desirable, I believe the price needs to go up significantly for the market to sustain certain kinds of activity (e.g. settlement between significantly sized accounts globally). Having BTCUSD < $1000 puts serious limits on the kind of activity that can occur in the market. I'm really not interested in stability until that level, and I do view buying below that level as a long-term good bet. Even at that level, the total bitcoin monetary base would be worth $21 billion, which still leaves some room for gradual growth.

Exactly. Stability will be nice, but we shouldn't wish for stability at current prices.  The fact is that right now Bitcoin is, from a pure numbers perspective, a joke.  If we ever do reach $1000 per BTC, at those seemingly-lofty heights, Bitcoin will only be about 0.1% as big as the world's M1 money supply (i.e., still relatively small in the scheme of things).  If you believe that Bitcoin has the potential to change the world and replace our corrupt, destructive, and rapidly-imploding monetary system with something better, it needs to get bigger.  A LOT bigger. And if that means I have to become fabulously wealthy in the process, well that's just a sacrifice I'll have to make.

Keep in mind that in your scenario, while 10 BTC may buy you $10000, $10000 may be better used as firewood if the current monetary system does collapse.

Yeah, I expect both effects, i.e. bitcoins' price in fiat will rise because fiat is losing value and because bitcoins are gaining real purchasing power. And the collapse of the current monetary system is a matter of "when," not "if."

so we will have a major collapse of the monetary system yet the "internet" will remain operational and effective
for BTC users to zing money around. got it.

so when ISPs start going out of business, your wireless phone gets shut off, and what have you.. you will still
be able to use BTC like there is no problem?

[Roger_Murdock]

so we will have a major collapse of the monetary system yet the "internet" will remain operational and effective
for BTC users to zing money around. got it.

so when ISPs start going out of business, your wireless phone gets shut off, and what have you.. you will still
be able to use BTC like there is no problem?

Yeah, I don't think a collapse of the current monetary system will necessarily translate into the complete end of the world as we know it / zombie apocalypse (although I'm certainly not suggesting you shouldn't also prepare for the latter scenario). Fiat currencies have come and gone before. The exchange of goods and services for value continued. I'm admittedly not an expert in this area (like not at all) but my understanding is that the "internet" is a fairly resilient lady. I could imagine major disruptions but my guess is that she (and the block chain) will be around for a while.

[bitcon]

so we will have a major collapse of the monetary system yet the "internet" will remain operational and effective
for BTC users to zing money around. got it.

so when ISPs start going out of business, your wireless phone gets shut off, and what have you.. you will still
be able to use BTC like there is no problem?

Yeah, I don't think a collapse of the current monetary system will necessarily translate into the complete end of the world as we know it / zombie apocalypse (although I'm certainly not suggesting you shouldn't also prepare for the latter scenario). Fiat currencies have come and gone before. The exchange of goods and services for value continued. I'm admittedly not an expert in this area (like not at all) but my understanding is that the "internet" is a fairly resilient lady. I could imagine major disruptions but my guess is that she (and the block chain) will be around for a while.

^ this..  so many doomsdayers on these forums...

[fcmatt]

so we will have a major collapse of the monetary system yet the "internet" will remain operational and effective
for BTC users to zing money around. got it.

so when ISPs start going out of business, your wireless phone gets shut off, and what have you.. you will still
be able to use BTC like there is no problem?

Yeah, I don't think a collapse of the current monetary system will necessarily translate into the complete end of the world as we know it / zombie apocalypse (although I'm certainly not suggesting you shouldn't also prepare for the latter scenario). Fiat currencies have come and gone before. The exchange of goods and services for value continued. I'm admittedly not an expert in this area (like not at all) but my understanding is that the "internet" is a fairly resilient lady. I could imagine major disruptions but my guess is that she (and the block chain) will be around for a while.

^ this..  so many doomsdayers on these forums...

oh please. here you all talk about monetary collapse (dooms day type scenario) then do not even consider if bitcoin
could function properly when the event takes place. Is it too much of a stretch to think that it is possible for some ISPs
and wireless carriers to go out of business in such a situation?

[Roger_Murdock]

so we will have a major collapse of the monetary system yet the "internet" will remain operational and effective
for BTC users to zing money around. got it.

so when ISPs start going out of business, your wireless phone gets shut off, and what have you.. you will still
be able to use BTC like there is no problem?

Yeah, I don't think a collapse of the current monetary system will necessarily translate into the complete end of the world as we know it / zombie apocalypse (although I'm certainly not suggesting you shouldn't also prepare for the latter scenario). Fiat currencies have come and gone before. The exchange of goods and services for value continued. I'm admittedly not an expert in this area (like not at all) but my understanding is that the "internet" is a fairly resilient lady. I could imagine major disruptions but my guess is that she (and the block chain) will be around for a while.

^ this..  so many doomsdayers on these forums...

oh please. here you all talk about monetary collapse (dooms day type scenario) then do not even consider if bitcoin
could function properly when the event takes place. Is it too much of a stretch to think that it is possible for some ISPs
and wireless carriers to go out of business in such a situation?

Again, I don't consider the monetary collapse to be a doomsday scenario. And no, that's not too much of a stretch at all.  I just don't think that if, e.g., AOL and Sprint go out of business that will mean the death of the Internet.

[fcmatt]

so we will have a major collapse of the monetary system yet the "internet" will remain operational and effective
for BTC users to zing money around. got it.

so when ISPs start going out of business, your wireless phone gets shut off, and what have you.. you will still
be able to use BTC like there is no problem?

Yeah, I don't think a collapse of the current monetary system will necessarily translate into the complete end of the world as we know it / zombie apocalypse (although I'm certainly not suggesting you shouldn't also prepare for the latter scenario). Fiat currencies have come and gone before. The exchange of goods and services for value continued. I'm admittedly not an expert in this area (like not at all) but my understanding is that the "internet" is a fairly resilient lady. I could imagine major disruptions but my guess is that she (and the block chain) will be around for a while.

^ this..  so many doomsdayers on these forums...

oh please. here you all talk about monetary collapse (dooms day type scenario) then do not even consider if bitcoin
could function properly when the event takes place. Is it too much of a stretch to think that it is possible for some ISPs
and wireless carriers to go out of business in such a situation?

Again, I don't consider the monetary collapse to be a doomsday scenario. And no, that's not too much of a stretch at all.  I just don't think that if, e.g., AOL and Sprint go out of business that will mean the death of the Internet.

The death of the internet is too vague. How about if Comcast starts having problems and millions of people cannot get online to use bitcoin.
That would be a major problem. Or cell phone service becomes problematic so the carriers only allow voice and not data to get through the
rough patch.

The internet is just a bunch of small networks connected to each other. If Level3 died off we would still be connected to other ISPs
but some parts of the internet might be unreachable until we scrambled a way to get our packets there.

[foggyb]

so when ISPs start going out of business, your wireless phone gets shut off, and what have you.. you will still
be able to use BTC like there is no problem?

What, they will voluntarily refuse to provide internet to the masses that demand it? Why, out of sympathy for the crash? The internet is 5x more important to life today than the telephone was in the 1930's.

It's almost as important as running water, in most civilized places.

Check out this analysis of telephone traffic during the depression. I think the trends are relevant to internet services today, should we experience a monetary collapse.

http://purplemotes.net/2010/02/07/calls-per-phone-grew-across-the-great-depression/

Despite the Great Depression traumatically beginning in 1929, calls per telephone grew 1%  in the U.S. from 1927 to 1932.  Across this period, gross domestic product (GDP) fell 39%, and urban prices fell 21%.   Since telephone rates are regulated, they tend to be nominally sticky.  Hence the real price of telephone service almost surely rose from 1927 to 1932.  Nonetheless, the number of telephones in service fell only 6%.  Calls, most of which are not charged per call, fell 5%.

Communication shouldn’t be expected to contract with economic contractions.  After all, misery loves company.  Bad times are a good stimulus for conversation.   Complaining has unlimited possibilities for growth.  Communication beats depression.

[fcmatt]

so when ISPs start going out of business, your wireless phone gets shut off, and what have you.. you will still
be able to use BTC like there is no problem?

What, they will voluntarily refuse to provide internet to the masses that demand it? Why, out of sympathy for the crash? The internet is 5x more important to life today than the telephone was in the 1930's.

It's almost as important as running water, in most civilized places.

Check out this analysis of telephone traffic during the depression. I think the trends are relevant to internet services today, should we experience a monetary collapse.

http://purplemotes.net/2010/02/07/calls-per-phone-grew-across-the-great-depression/

Despite the Great Depression traumatically beginning in 1929, calls per telephone grew 1%  in the U.S. from 1927 to 1932.  Across this period, gross domestic product (GDP) fell 39%, and urban prices fell 21%.   Since telephone rates are regulated, they tend to be nominally sticky.  Hence the real price of telephone service almost surely rose from 1927 to 1932.  Nonetheless, the number of telephones in service fell only 6%.  Calls, most of which are not charged per call, fell 5%.

Communication shouldn’t be expected to contract with economic contractions.  After all, misery loves company.  Bad times are a good stimulus for conversation.   Complaining has unlimited possibilities for growth.  Communication beats depression.

Telephone back then was a disruptive technology and expansion was going to happen hell or high water.
No different then radio really. The great depression drove down prices, installment payments came about,
and deflation made things more available for an average person to buy.

"The Great Depression drove down the average price of a radio sold in United States from $139 in 1929 to about $47 just four years later."

Yet everyone is talking about run away inflation and monetary collapse. The opposite of what happened back then.
What happens when your internet service goes from 40 a month to 160 a month and your wages do not keep up?

[salty]

Yet everyone is talking about run away inflation and monetary collapse. The opposite of what happened back then.
What happens when your internet service goes from 40 a month to 160 a month and your wages do not keep up?

The internet company drops its prices or goes bust?

[salty]

Or alternatively people switch to per gb plans and turn off image download as default, only go online for 1/2 hour a day etc, maybe you're lucky enough to be too young to remember dial-up modems and BBS ?

[ruski]

maybe you're lucky enough to be too young to remember dial-up modems and BBS ?

Some of us are Australian, that's still the peak of technology over here.

[foggyb]

Yet everyone is talking about run away inflation and monetary collapse. The opposite of what happened back then.
What happens when your internet service goes from 40 a month to 160 a month and your wages do not keep up?

If internet is not critical to you, of course you won't continue to pay for it.

There are options:

a) Internet cafe
b) mobile wireless
c) dial-up internet
d) wifi free-loading

combined with online wallet service.

[BCEmporium]

«And BCE said, "it will go up until 14~15 before crash"»
The book of BCE 100938,1

 

[odolvlobo]

Well, it starts to look like a pattern, bitcoin starts to raise in June and drops dead in September. Wonder what causes this... summer holidays?

Two similar events don't make a "pattern" -- they make a "coincidence".

[BCEmporium]

Well, it starts to look like a pattern, bitcoin starts to raise in June and drops dead in September. Wonder what causes this... summer holidays?

Two similar events don't make a "pattern" -- they make a "coincidence".

I draw a white square, then a black square, then a white, then a black... it isn't yet a pattern but it starts to look like a pattern.

[BCEmporium]

"4~5 USD" i lol'd

the crash wont pass 10...

summer rise is probably due to Tax returns coming in.

Back on single digit. Still lol'ing?

And what "magic" did I operate to notice something was "f" wrong and estimate the top/low? A "magic" we all have... common sense.
Economy isn't a science, the way we have nowadays makes it probably the major scam on Earth, specially because they managed to lure society into believe it to be a "science" but the statistics analysis and "indicators" they use are just as valid for anything as those guys calculating past lotto-results to try to win the next one; they're but gambling fallacies. If a person simply prevents his greed and wishful thinking to speak of, will see it as easily as I saw it to happen... now just enjoy the ride of "correction" as the boat gets to balance again.