MegaDice - Play Instant Bitcoin Dice & Be Part of the Bankroll

[SDice_CTO]

We're under DDoS attack, but it seems just blocking a couple of thousands if IPs solved it for now.

[EngiNerd]

My apologies if it was answered somewhere earlier in this thread, but why isn't this site available in the US? I haven't encountered another btc gambling website (with or without an invest option) where US players were forbidden.

This decision was made on the basis of extensive legal counsel. The best way to limit legal risk for SatoshiDice, and thereby protect its stakeholders, is to block US players.

Note that this decision does not mean that online gambling is illegal in the US, nor does it mean that Bitcoin gaming is illegal. However, the courts have not been clear on the definition of gambling, nor on what would constitute “legitimate gaming,” nor are jurisdictions properly defined, and thus this is a proactive measure to protect those involved in the project.

Further, this decision is not being made because of any citation or notice from any government agency, whatsoever. This is not, in any way, related to the recent Gox/Dwolla court order issue. Again, it is a proactive measure, based on the prudent legal guidance of our trusted lawyers.

We believe this is a wise move for the site to perpetuate in the long term.

Further, to clarify, SatoshiDice is hosted in Switzerland and has never utilized US currency or engaged with the US banking system whatsoever.

Thank you for your timely and comprehensive reply. I'm a little disappointed that I can't contribute and invest in the site's bankroll, but I understand your "playing it safe" approach.

[SDice_CTO]

Site is down again.

We're under DDoS attack, but it seems just blocking a couple of thousands if IPs solved it for now.

It's back again now. The attack intensified earlier today, but is solved for now.

[EngiNerd]

Site is down again.

We're under DDoS attack, but it seems just blocking a couple of thousands if IPs solved it for now.

It's back again now. The attack intensified earlier today, but is solved for now.

I hate how much DDoS-ing has become a thing these days :-/ CloudFlare and other mitigation technologies have rendered them not much than a nuisance.

[SDice_CTO]

A few days ago we have changed the main cold storage to:
1DmqFgYfKMT1F8B3tGhVMFf82vdgdSsjNV
Signed Message: Satoshi Dice Cold Storage signed 2015-12-27

And secondary cold storage: 18e5jpfn9zo9GQov1Ks9Pzh6Yam2SvFqqo
Signed Message: Satoshi Dice Cold Storage signed 2015-04-12

The old addresses are no longer in use.

Site is down again.

We're under DDoS attack, but it seems just blocking a couple of thousands if IPs solved it for now.

It's back again now. The attack intensified earlier today, but is solved for now.

Now an SSL connection error.

The DDoS is still ongoing, but in low volume so the site is fully functional at the time I'm writing this.

[Mars110]

What is now the site could've used ..?? Because I played yesterday but the site cannot be used. And after I see on these forums turns stricken DDOS, whether that issue is over done..??

[j000000]

A few days ago we have changed the main cold storage to:
1DmqFgYfKMT1F8B3tGhVMFf82vdgdSsjNV
Signed Message: Satoshi Dice Cold Storage signed 2015-12-27

And secondary cold storage: 18e5jpfn9zo9GQov1Ks9Pzh6Yam2SvFqqo
Signed Message: Satoshi Dice Cold Storage signed 2015-04-12

The old addresses are no longer in use.

Site is down again.

We're under DDoS attack, but it seems just blocking a couple of thousands if IPs solved it for now.

It's back again now. The attack intensified earlier today, but is solved for now.

Now an SSL connection error.

The DDoS is still ongoing, but in low volume so the site is fully functional at the time I'm writing this.

Why is there only 2000 BTC in cold storage suddenly from 4500? that's much less trust/confidence in the existence/security of stated funds then before; less then half of the bank to be shown is very little assurance. I just checked the balances on those 2 addressess and they add up to about 4300, so it's there, but on the site it says each has about 1000, leading one to believe a priori that only about 2000BTC are in those 2 cold storage addresses, so I'd fix this and display on the website the 3000 of that first one instead of 1000 if I were you and wanted to attract investors.

I still take issue with the following about lack of 2FA:

speaking of security, why haven't you got an optional 2FA security for users? unless you consider the password the 2nd factor, and the url the 1st? not nearly the same level of security as an OTP accessible from ones smartphone, like google authenticator IE.

please introduce 2FA ASAP, and increase the cold storage (at least 3/4 or so); until then I don't feel safe to put my money on something with so little assurance and security.

I also noticed that some of the numbers on the section "How Investor's Percentages of the Bankroll Are Determined" are wrong.

"The original investor's 15 coins now make up 75% and the new investor's 5 coins make up 25% of the total bankroll. If now another 10 coins are lost by players, the first investor gets 7.5 coins and the second investor gets 22.5 2.5 coins, bringing their investments up to 22.5 and 7.7 7.5 coins"

and one clarification, the stated "house profit" is the investor profit right? the expected 0.95% of wagered BTC; not the total casino profit expected house edge of 1.9% correct?

another thing, on the "Potential Risks for Investors"

in the last part you should also include the risk of the operators of satoshidice playing as  a player but having access to the server seed know in advance what the outcome will be thus can win every bet, thus scamming money from investors. unless you found some solution to this problem of the current implementation of provably fair.

lastly, I still can't access users pages, stats pages, new user, and others; is this still from the ddos?

[SDice_CTO]

Why is there only 2000 BTC in cold storage suddenly from 4500? that's much less trust/confidence in the existence/security of stated funds then before; less then half of the bank to be shown is very little assurance. I just checked the balances on those 2 addressess and they add up to about 4300, so it's there, but on the site it says each has about 1000, leading one to believe a priori that only about 2000BTC are in those 2 cold storage addresses, so I'd fix this and display on the website the 3000 of that first one instead of 1000 if I were you and wanted to attract investors.

I have fixed this. The text is currently static and needs to be updated every now and then.

I still take issue with the following about lack of 2FA:

speaking of security, why haven't you got an optional 2FA security for users? unless you consider the password the 2nd factor, and the url the 1st? not nearly the same level of security as an OTP accessible from ones smartphone, like google authenticator IE.

please introduce 2FA ASAP, and increase the cold storage (at least 3/4 or so); until then I don't feel safe to put my money on something with so little assurance and security.

Yes, we're implementing this.

I also noticed that some of the numbers on the section "How Investor's Percentages of the Bankroll Are Determined" are wrong.

"The original investor's 15 coins now make up 75% and the new investor's 5 coins make up 25% of the total bankroll. If now another 10 coins are lost by players, the first investor gets 7.5 coins and the second investor gets 22.5 2.5 coins, bringing their investments up to 22.5 and 7.7 7.5 coins"

You are correct, I have updated the text!

and one clarification, the stated "house profit" is the investor profit right? the expected 0.95% of wagered BTC; not the total casino profit expected house edge of 1.9% correct?

"House profit" is profit taken from bets minus wins (1.9% edge). So the amount being paid to investor's is half of this (can be considered 0.95% edge)

another thing, on the "Potential Risks for Investors"

in the last part you should also include the risk of the operators of satoshidice playing as  a player but having access to the server seed know in advance what the outcome will be thus can win every bet, thus scamming money from investors. unless you found some solution to this problem of the current implementation of provably fair.

Yes, this is true. I added it. The same applies if there's unauthorised access to the server and someone can create winning bets.

lastly, I still can't access users pages, stats pages, new user, and others; is this still from the ddos?

Yes, we're still under a heavy DDoS attack, but it's under control thanks to hardware DDoS protection. We're still tweaking the DDoS protection rules and believe the attacker runs completely out of variations soon. We expect user profile pages to be enabled today.

[goodbc]

Could you not automatically ban IPs that are connecting with a secret key that leads to an account with any amount of btc in it? I think is perfectly reasonable to assume that people trying to access their own bitcoins are not the ones behind the ddos.

[j000000]

thanks for the updates.

(just a note, the text still says 7.7 whereas it should say 7.5)

regarding:

"House profit" is profit taken from bets minus wins (1.9% edge). So the amount being paid to investor's is half of this (can be considered 0.95% edge)

that means the house profit is quite alot lower then I would expect. according to my calculations this means there is only an effective house profit of about 1.13% instead of the expected 1.9% (it's about 60% of 1.9%). I know variance, but after more then 255'000'000 bets this is extremely low! the standard deviation after this many bets with the average bet of 0.0008btc is only 12.669btc; yet the current deviation is of 1556btc; that is 123 deviations! that odds of that are practically zero. so either a lot of people are betting big and when in the positive never betting again thus taking a significant portion of expected profits away, or something more fishy is going like the possibility I mentioned of someone with access to the server seed making sure-winning bets.  it's just because as an investor this means the annual rate of return has been about 18% instead of the expected 33% that would come from a 1.9% (0.95% for the investor) house profit. for such a risky investment as this, 18% doesn't seem all that much, whereas 33% would seem more appropriate.

my calculations were as follows:

total wagered=total won+total loss=total won + (total won + profit)= ~202342
effective house edge=effective profit/total wagered=~1.13%
average bet=total wagered/number of bets=~0.0008
standard deviation=2*averagebet*sqrt(#bets*probability of winning*probability of losing)=~12.669btc
current deviation=expected profit-effective profit=(total wagered*1.9%)-2288=1556btc

care to comment/explain or check my calculations/logic? how does something that a priori has a practically infinitesimal probability of occurring (123 standard deviations) occur? can big players that stop betting altogether after being in the positive really account for such a huge deviation? if so, I would like to understand how, why or some source, cause to me that seems extremely unlikely given what is known of gamblers and casinos.

[SDice_CTO]

Could you not automatically ban IPs that are connecting with a secret key that leads to an account with any amount of btc in it? I think is perfectly reasonable to assume that people trying to access their own bitcoins are not the ones behind the ddos.

Yes this makes sense, but I'm not sure we can configure the DDoS protection to do this very easily. We're getting some false positives but are working on it.

[SDice_CTO]

thanks for the updates.

(just a note, the text still says 7.7 whereas it should say 7.5)

I just fixed this, thanks.

regarding:

"House profit" is profit taken from bets minus wins (1.9% edge). So the amount being paid to investor's is half of this (can be considered 0.95% edge)

that means the house profit is quite alot lower then I would expect. according to my calculations this means there is only an effective house profit of about 1.13% instead of the expected 1.9% (it's about 60% of 1.9%). I know variance, but after more then 255'000'000 bets this is extremely low! the standard deviation after this many bets with the average bet of 0.0008btc is only 12.669btc; yet the current deviation is of 1556btc; that is 123 deviations! that odds of that are practically zero. so either a lot of people are betting big and when in the positive never betting again thus taking a significant portion of expected profits away, or something more fishy is going like the possibility I mentioned of someone with access to the server seed making sure-winning bets.  it's just because as an investor this means the annual rate of return has been about 18% instead of the expected 33% that would come from a 1.9% (0.95% for the investor) house profit. for such a risky investment as this, 18% doesn't seem all that much, whereas 33% would seem more appropriate.

my calculations were as follows:

total wagered=total won+total loss=total won - (total won + profit)= ~202342
effective house edge=effective profit/total wagered=~1.13%
average bet=total wagered/number of bets=~0.0008
standard deviation=2*averagebet*sqrt(#bets*probability of winning*probability of losing)=~12.669btc
current deviation=expected profit-effective profit=(total wagered*1.9%)-2288=1556btc

care to comment/explain or check my calculations/logic? how does something that a priori has a practically infinitesimal probability of occurring (123 standard deviations) occur? can big players that stop betting altogether after being in the positive really account for such a huge deviation? if so, I would like to understand how, why or some source, cause to me that seems extremely unlikely given what is known of gamblers and casinos.

Average bet size doesn't really say much because one highroller betting 20 coins amounts to 20,000,000 minimum size bets, and those min bets are by far the most common amount. I think you are trying to make a too complicated formula. Profit has actually been higher than expected value and the bigger the biggest bets are, the bigger likelihood of the actual profit differing from the EV. For expected profit just put total bet amount x 0.019... Total wagered is available in the global stats API call. Dicesites.com has great presentation of the stats.

[j000000]

Average bet size doesn't really say much because one highroller betting 20 coins amounts to 20,000,000 minimum size bets,

ah, yes. I see that now.

Profit has actually been higher than expected value and the bigger the biggest bets are, the bigger likelihood of the actual profit differing from the EV. For expected profit just put total bet amount x 0.019... Total wagered is available in the global stats API call.

the total wagered from that dicesites.com is clearly wrong given it is little more then the amount won (they apparently show total won + profit; it ignores the total amount that was bet and lost (except for the profit)) (plus it shows the data available on your site that starts in 5/11/14, yet gives the start date of 18/04/12; which from an investor POV is deceivingly very unflattering; it would make one think that the wagered and profit of the last year and 3 months was actually spread out over the life time of the site; and thus RoI per year would be much less (roughly 1/3)).

 the total wagered can easily be calculated from 2 stats on your site, total won and profit: as I explained before, "total wagered=total won+total loss=total won + (total won + profit)= ~202342" (currently is about 203518);   this is because obviously total wagered is total won + total lost (there are no ties correct?) and total lost is equal to the amount that was won plus the profit cause that's the only way the profit could be what it is. you understand this, yes?

thus: total bet amount x 0.019 is 3866.842. 1586  less then the actual profit of 2280, like I said actual profit is about 60%(59%) of expected.

anyway, maybe this is perfectly reasonable variance IDK; although if I were you as a casino I would like to know what the variance and standard deviation is for the games on my casino.

[Bitcoin Exchanges]

is the DDoS attack over now, is the site safe to use?

[SDice_CTO]

is the DDoS attack over now, is the site safe to use?

Yes it's over, and even if it would start again, we have powerful hardware DDoS protection setup!

[SDice_CTO]

Average bet size doesn't really say much because one highroller betting 20 coins amounts to 20,000,000 minimum size bets,

ah, yes. I see that now.

Profit has actually been higher than expected value and the bigger the biggest bets are, the bigger likelihood of the actual profit differing from the EV. For expected profit just put total bet amount x 0.019... Total wagered is available in the global stats API call.

the total wagered from that dicesites.com is clearly wrong given it is little more then the amount won (they apparently show total won + profit; it ignores the total amount that was bet and lost (except for the profit)) (plus it shows the data available on your site that starts in 5/11/14, yet gives the start date of 18/04/12; which from an investor POV is deceivingly very unflattering; it would make one think that the wagered and profit of the last year and 3 months was actually spread out over the life time of the site; and thus RoI per year would be much less (roughly 1/3)).

 the total wagered can easily be calculated from 2 stats on your site, total won and profit: as I explained before, "total wagered=total won+total loss=total won + (total won + profit)= ~202342" (currently is about 203518);   this is because obviously total wagered is total won + total lost (there are no ties correct?) and total lost is equal to the amount that was won plus the profit cause that's the only way the profit could be what it is. you understand this, yes?

thus: total bet amount x 0.019 is 3866.842. 1586  less then the actual profit of 2280, like I said actual profit is about 60%(59%) of expected.

anyway, maybe this is perfectly reasonable variance IDK; although if I were you as a casino I would like to know what the variance and standard deviation is for the games on my casino.

Where do you get the total loss from? Of the total wagered, some rolls win and some lose. From what has been wagered, 0.019 is expected to be taken off from bet payouts as profit. We provide the total wagered amount and house edge is accomplished by taking a sum off winning rolls' payout.

Payout: ( betAmount * (65535+1) / numberToRollUnder ) * ( 100 - 1.9 )

Total bet amount as seen in the API: 104469.02610966

104469.02610966 * 0.019 = Expected house profit = 1984.911

Actual profit: bets 104469.02610966 - wins 102119.66460453 = 2349.36150513

From the house's perspective, the EV is the same no matter the bet size, but players can place more bets with low probability before running out because profit is taken from payouts and if payouts occur less often, it takes longer for the player to run out of funds (on average).

I also see that the current stats include (or ignore) slot game rounds as session game rounds. EV on those is slightly higher for the house, and they are credited to investors. I will make the global stats API call give more data about this.

[Ibian]

Having connection issues. The site doesn't load most of the time, but isitdownrightnow says it's up and my investment has been growing the last couple days so it is obviously active.

[buyinbtc]

thanks for sharing this awesome tips, looks like good one, i will try it soon!

[SDice_CTO]

Having connection issues. The site doesn't load most of the time, but isitdownrightnow says it's up and my investment has been growing the last couple days so it is obviously active.

Can you please PM your IP number and we'll see if it's in the firewall!

[SDice_CTO]

CURRENT BANKROLL:
4971.60283588 BTC

We're getting close to 5000 BTC bankroll