dogedice.me (OP)
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April 03, 2015, 02:49:30 PM |
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Guys,
BitDice contemplates an idea to introduce a new betting concept on top of what it operates by far. There are certain technicalities we need to address first, however, we would like to share the basic idea with you in order to get your feedback. You are very welcome to let us know your thoughts if it is something that you’d like to see working and/or willing to participate in.
The concept revolves around an idea to create the environment where players or group of players are able to bet against each other on an outcome of a random event. The event, which we would like to bring forward, will be based on the same principle of rolling a dice but will undergo some additional mathematical manipulations.
To generate the event, BitDice will run a stream of bets according to a disclosed algorithm similar to the current. The results of each consecutive bet will be summed up and reflected on the chart in terms of a curve. Once the certain number of bets is generated and the curve is fully built, the event will produce an outcome with a final numerical values upon which bets will be checked.
There will be multiple combinations of outcome a player will choose from. The simplest, for instance, would be an outcome of two mutually exclusive events such as if the curve ends up in positive or negative territory.
Prior to generating a curve, players will be asked to place their bets with our model’s estimated odds. Odds will be a function of players’ preferences who already committed their bets and will change dynamically while bookmaking in progress. Initially, BitDice will facilitate a start-up liquidity for the purpose of making first bets going. However, there will be no intention for BitDice to take on any side in the game.
We believe the idea might be interesting from two perspectives. First, the game will be more exciting to play when opponents are human-being participants instead of a house. Second, odds will be never fixed and are basically exposed for bargain hunting opportunities depending on the current bets allocation. These two reasons alone shall bring BitDice a bit of fresh air of innovation.
Regards, Alex
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gamblingbad
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April 03, 2015, 03:25:17 PM |
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POKER!!!!!!!
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| . Bit-Exo
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btcdealer.nl
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
April 03, 2015, 03:30:39 PM |
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POKER!!!!!!!
Hahahahaah! would be nice! ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif)
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gamblingbad
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
April 03, 2015, 03:42:42 PM |
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Alex u mean like same this game? https://www.moneypot.com/play
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| . Bit-Exo
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GannickusX
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April 03, 2015, 03:44:39 PM |
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Ye i think so but i didnt really understand why he says odds will never be fixed?? How would that work and what odds are we even talking about like i chose a number from 1-10 and other people choose their numbers aswell, the site draws a random number and whoever wins gets everything?
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gamblingbad
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
April 03, 2015, 04:07:19 PM |
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Why not just have a betexchange where people can bet about anything they want bet on.
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| . Bit-Exo
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HostFat
Staff
Legendary
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Activity: 4256
Merit: 1208
I support freedom of choice
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April 03, 2015, 04:17:33 PM |
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btcdealer.nl
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
April 03, 2015, 04:28:56 PM |
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Yea, thought about that also. ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) Why not just have a betexchange where people can bet about anything they want bet on.
Hard to check the results if they can bet on anything..
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dogedice.me (OP)
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
April 03, 2015, 06:00:46 PM |
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Alright. I should probably elaborate more.
Assume there is a predefined setup for generating a stream of bets with bet amount of 1 BTC but variable multiplier and High/Low selection of rolls (and no bias in terms of house edge). Each bet will produce result (profit or loss) that will be added to the previous result (again profit or loss). Now, with each bet in progress, you’ll get a cumulative time-series values of so-called betting performance that will look like a curve starting at zero on both X and Y axes. There is no way to know what form the curve will eventually take after N-number of bets is executed, thus the outcome is unpredictable.
Now as regards to the odds. As I mentioned, we may introduce multitude of different combinations for placing bets. For the sake of simplicity, consider a binary option to illustrate how it works: You bet on the curve that ends (1) positive or (2) negative - for the curve to end positive, profits should prevail over losses. Since the process is random, there are basically 50/50 chance of either outcome. So BitDice will take on first player bet with 2.00x payout for either case. As further players arrive to the game they will realize that the odds are no longer 50/50 for them, as the first player, who’s already bet for (1) option, will skew the multiplier payouts.
In this particular example, placing a first bet on (1) option for the bettor that follows him will somewhat decrease multiplier for (1) and increase multiplier for (2), bringing incentive for other players to bet on less crowded option (2). As result, every incoming player will affect payout stakes after committing his bet, where in fact the outcome WILL hold a theoretical distribution of odds, in this case 50/50.
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gamblingbad
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
April 03, 2015, 06:01:22 PM |
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Why not just have a betexchange where people can bet about anything they want bet on.
Hard to check the results if they can bet on anything.. [/quote] There need be someone that approves the terms of the bet, and result wont be any doubts of what they are.
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| . Bit-Exo
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boopy265420
Legendary
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Activity: 1876
Merit: 1005
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April 03, 2015, 07:48:30 PM |
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There are two games already available to place bets on . I think Roulette is to be added next on your great site and this will put positive and huge impact on your business as well as players will have one more option.
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ndnh
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Activity: 1302
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New Decentralized Nuclear Hobbit
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April 03, 2015, 08:16:52 PM Last edit: April 03, 2015, 08:36:37 PM by ndnhc |
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Alright. I should probably elaborate more.
Assume there is a predefined setup for generating a stream of bets with bet amount of 1 BTC but variable multiplier and High/Low selection of rolls (and no bias in terms of house edge). Each bet will produce result (profit or loss) that will be added to the previous result (again profit or loss). Now, with each bet in progress, you’ll get a cumulative time-series values of so-called betting performance that will look like a curve starting at zero on both X and Y axes. There is no way to know what form the curve will eventually take after N-number of bets is executed, thus the outcome is unpredictable.
Now as regards to the odds. As I mentioned, we may introduce multitude of different combinations for placing bets. For the sake of simplicity, consider a binary option to illustrate how it works: You bet on the curve that ends (1) positive or (2) negative - for the curve to end positive, profits should prevail over losses. Since the process is random, there are basically 50/50 chance of either outcome. So BitDice will take on first player bet with 2.00x payout for either case. As further players arrive to the game they will realize that the odds are no longer 50/50 for them, as the first player, who’s already bet for (1) option, will skew the multiplier payouts.
In this particular example, placing a first bet on (1) option for the bettor that follows him will somewhat decrease multiplier for (1) and increase multiplier for (2), bringing incentive for other players to bet on less crowded option (2). As result, every incoming player will affect payout stakes after committing his bet, where in fact the outcome WILL hold a theoretical distribution of odds, in this case 50/50.
Okay. Can you clarify this? I got everything except the variable odds part. Suppose there is a 1 BTC bet on profit after 1000 rolls, and there is 2 BTC bet on loss after the same. Will the odds be 50:50 or 1:2 ? that is will the chances depend upon the bet amounts on both sides, so that no one has an advantage or disadvantage? If so, if a player bets against for 0.1 BTC against 0.05 hoping for a win and a whale comes and places a bet of 10 BTC, won't the player get a different set of odds than he intended? Also, I assume the house will be taking a small fee? or will it be free? Edit: Is the variable edge implemented in a similar way like house edge is implemented?
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galbros
Legendary
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Activity: 1022
Merit: 1000
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April 03, 2015, 10:36:39 PM |
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I'm sure you know that Primedice tried a limited PVP where you basically rolled dice against each other. It seemed to work okay, but it is a lot more fun to take the house's money than some other gambler's. Before that, peerbet allowed gamblers to play lotteries against each other. It was pretty interesting.
What you are describing sounds very confusing. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure it's awesome but gambling games work because they are pretty simple, count to 21, roll a number before you roll a 7, put your chips on the number you think the ball on the wheel will land on, you get the idea.
While your idea may be easy in application, it is confusing in concept, so if you really think it is a winner demo it and see, but my sense, based on this thread, is that it is too confusing. Having said that, moneypot was innovative and seems to have attracted a lot of attention.
Good luck either way.
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ndnh
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April 04, 2015, 08:28:02 AM |
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If we got 1 BTC stake on (1) option, and 2 BTC stake on (2) option and no stakes from the other player, then the system will suggest the following payout coefficients for prospective players:
(1) option ---> (1/(1+2))^-1 =3 (2) option ---> (2/(1+2))^-1 =1.5
And if there comes a next bet from a new player, he can fix his bet with these payout coefficients. But as soon as he confirms his bet, the coefficients will be re-calculated to reflect new allocation.
These multipliers will be discounted for an X % commission (we not sure about how much) but you are right, we will be charging some fee for each bet.
So as you see, there should be a competition to balance the book for every event with a theoretical chances of 50/50… But players shall be able to “fix better terms” so to speak. We will also introduce a limit for a maximum allowable payout to better accommodate our capacity in providing initial liquidity for start-up bets.
So the odds are fixed at 50/50. Only the payouts are variable. I think I got what you meant. If the bets are pretty fast, then you can go ahead. ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif) gl ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif)
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galbros
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April 05, 2015, 08:43:34 AM |
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Given your limited amount of time, I'd say you are better off finishing up roulette or bringing a new coin into the bitdice.me family rather than trying a totally new game. PRC just pulled their lottery game because of low interest. So while a more advanced moneypot might be really interesting, the difficulty your having in even explaining this suggests it is too complicated.
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janggernaut
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April 05, 2015, 09:06:09 AM |
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Guys,
BitDice contemplates an idea to introduce a new betting concept on top of what it operates by far. There are certain technicalities we need to address first, however, we would like to share the basic idea with you in order to get your feedback. You are very welcome to let us know your thoughts if it is something that you’d like to see working and/or willing to participate in.
The concept revolves around an idea to create the environment where players or group of players are able to bet against each other on an outcome of a random event. The event, which we would like to bring forward, will be based on the same principle of rolling a dice but will undergo some additional mathematical manipulations.
To generate the event, BitDice will run a stream of bets according to a disclosed algorithm similar to the current. The results of each consecutive bet will be summed up and reflected on the chart in terms of a curve. Once the certain number of bets is generated and the curve is fully built, the event will produce an outcome with a final numerical values upon which bets will be checked.
There will be multiple combinations of outcome a player will choose from. The simplest, for instance, would be an outcome of two mutually exclusive events such as if the curve ends up in positive or negative territory.
Prior to generating a curve, players will be asked to place their bets with our model’s estimated odds. Odds will be a function of players’ preferences who already committed their bets and will change dynamically while bookmaking in progress. Initially, BitDice will facilitate a start-up liquidity for the purpose of making first bets going. However, there will be no intention for BitDice to take on any side in the game.
We believe the idea might be interesting from two perspectives. First, the game will be more exciting to play when opponents are human-being participants instead of a house. Second, odds will be never fixed and are basically exposed for bargain hunting opportunities depending on the current bets allocation. These two reasons alone shall bring BitDice a bit of fresh air of innovation.
Regards, Alex
sir, can you lower the basebet of bet on bitcoin? i think with the base bet 0.00001 its still too big, ty before
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jmintuck
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April 05, 2015, 09:42:50 AM |
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sir, can you lower the basebet of bet on bitcoin? i think with the base bet 0.00001 its still too big, ty before
0.00001 is like a cent. I doubt they would go any lower on that. Whats the point of gambling if you want to bet less than a cent .
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ndnh
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April 05, 2015, 04:03:18 PM |
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Given your limited amount of time, I'd say you are better off finishing up roulette or bringing a new coin into the bitdice.me family rather than trying a totally new game. PRC just pulled their lottery game because of low interest. So while a more advanced moneypot might be really interesting, the difficulty your having in even explaining this suggests it is too complicated.
Try and fail but don't fail to try. Why not?
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