The indicator we're all ignoring

[cypherdoc]

i still doubt it.  i remember SgtSpikes thread closely and even added my few lost coins to it.  that thread was active during the first parabolic rise when all the early adopters were still hanging around and i would think that anyone who lost a huge chunk of coins would've revealed it there.  38000 or so is a long, long way from 1.5 M.

The information is all there for anyone to analyze in the blockchain. It does require some assumptions, of course, so check your premises.

For over a year to plot the capital landscape I have been doing my own proprietary tracking since it is such an important metric. Seems someone else started a thread about this issue. Perhaps you should take a look at it. To be honest, I am kind of surprised it has not been discussed deeper and more often but for obvious (or not so obvious to some I suppose) reasons I am not really going to bring it up.

nice thread.  just finished it.  i still think what's more likely is that the miners from 2009, as mentioned in the thread, like BitcoinExpress and Artforz are hoarding coins as opposed to them being lost.  i know i do and i'm just a small miner.  miners back then built enormous mining operations b/c they recognized Bitcoin's capabilities right off the bat and are extremely unlikely to just "lose" or "format over" their coins.  could be wrong.

oh and remember, a move in the price from $0.05 to $0.20 still represented a quadrupling of your money so the economic incentives for meticulous care were present then just as they are now.

[dree12]

New chart for today; the effects of the correction hasn't shown up yet.

[dree12]

A very visible slowing of growth on this chart.

[smoothie]

A very visible slowing of growth on this chart.

...and then the price goes up and what? lol

[dree12]

A very visible slowing of growth on this chart.

...and then the price goes up and what? lol

A slowing of growth suggests that a correction is in progress, but will not be too severe. A reversing of growth suggests that a bubble is in progress.

[dree12]

Tentatively, I will perceive this event as a bubble. Once the next 8 days of data become available, I will be able to classify this event as either a true bubble or a major correction.

[kjj]

I think we peaked around $15.50  ($15.40?  whatever).  The 7 day average will be quite a bit south of that, meaning that this peak won't be scraping the 150M line like the last peak.  We also seem to have bumped off a 50% retrace in the vicinity of $7.58.  Again, the 7 day average will be quite a bit north of that, so we might not even fall under the 100M line.

This is based on the data so far, of course.  I lost $5 today trying to predict the future, a quick reminder that I'm no good at it.  The target for the $100,000,000 market cap is about $10.25, and the target for $75,000,000 is $7.70.  And the math will get even easier over the next 36 days or so as we get closer to the 10 million BTC milestone.

This week will be interesting indeed.  Personally, I expect a bit of an uptick, probably over $10 and hold for a while.  There is a lot of speculation that money wasn't able to get into mtgox over the weekend, but will be coming online to buy cheap coins as the Japanese banks open for business (happening now).  I don't really buy into such nonsense myself (the facts are probably true, but they don't in any way support the conclusion), but I've read it on here enough to expect quite a few people to believe it, making it trueish retroactively.

I'd most likely call this a bubble too.  I'd want to see a rebound to at least $13 to call it a correction, and I don't think that'll happen this week.  But it wouldn't surprise me too much either.

[bitcon]

feels more like an inverted bubble to me.  definitely inverted.

[elux]

POOF!

[cbeast]

feels more like an inverted bubble to me.  definitely inverted.

Since the comeback when folks realized Bitcoin didn't (or cannot) die the bubbles used to be in the $2-4 range. Then the $5-7 range. Now the $9-12 range. Soon the $15-20 range and so on.

[kjj]

Hmm.  Those graphs do not appear to be averaged at all, or at best daily rather than 7-day.

[dree12]

Hmm.  Those graphs do not appear to be averaged at all, or at best daily rather than 7-day.

The graphs are definitely averaged. Elux's graph above provides an unaveraged version that shows the raw volatility.

[SlaveInDebt]

Reminds me of my tinfoil hat theory last year.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=28216.msg355304#msg355304

[kjj]

Hmm.  Those graphs do not appear to be averaged at all, or at best daily rather than 7-day.

The graphs are definitely averaged. Elux's graph above provides an unaveraged version that shows the raw volatility.

Ahh, my bad.  I didn't see the controls under the banner ad.  Carry on.

[kjj]

Thread necro, but still interesting.



Notice that we've passed the previous recent peak.