When is it safe to buy?

[misterbigg]

When can I buy with a reasonable assurance (confidence 7 on a scale of 1..10) that we're not due for a large (>20%) correction?

[proudhon]

When can I buy with a reasonable assurance (confidence 7 on a scale of 1..10) that we're not due for a large (>20%) correction?

Umm, never.

[misterbigg]

Umm, never.

That's about as helpful as a bull predicting single digits...

[casascius]

When can I buy with a reasonable assurance (confidence 7 on a scale of 1..10) that we're not due for a large (>20%) correction?

It is not knowable, any more than it's knowable where to put your chips on a roulette table with any level of confidence that it's not due for a 100% correction.

If you believe Bitcoin is going to strike it big in the long term, relatively speaking, it shouldn't matter much whether you get in at $10 or $20.

[evanesce]

I dunno when its safe. But I bought at 14.83 this morning. I've been waiting for a week with usd in my gox. The more I waited the higher the price was.  So I finally gave in at the high price
  Whoever is with me. Let's have some luck.

[Jutarul]

There will always be a correction. The trick is to know what the "floor" is. Right now I think the floor is about $8-$9. But you can't tell whether and when it will be reached.

But the floor is gonna increase with time due to growing confidence in the system. If you have time you can be patient and wait for the next opportunity. But there's a minimal risk that your perceived floor is wrong and you miss the window. I'd say if the price hits $10 within the next 2 months that's another definitive buy.

[piramida]

well you can confidently buy at $2. however, it may take some time (up to forever).

[humanitee]

Umm, never.

That's about as helpful as a bull predicting single digits...

Ask an obvious question, get an obvious answer.

Nobody knows.

Personally I'd get in now, this shit isn't about to slow down.

[cheat_2_win]

well you can confidently buy at $2. however, it may take some time (up to forever).

There are lots of buy orders at $0.5 from people who sold at $1.1 and have been waiting since.

[ruski]

I dunno when its safe. But I bought at 14.83 this morning. I've been waiting for a week with usd in my gox. The more I waited the higher the price was.  So I finally gave in at the high price
  Whoever is with me. Let's have some luck.

Congratulations mr. panic buy, you bought in on the daily high!

That said, everyone is slowly realizing the same thing you did. This isn't a bubble (yet) and it doesn't look like we're going to get even a mild correction. If we do... lookout 'cos it's gonna rebound to the sky.

[stevegee58]

Be patient but BTFD.

[Joe200]

A lot of people who have been waiting for a correction or a slowdown to buy are buying today. Doesn't that mean that the last buyers are getting in? After this, there will be no more buyers? So the top is near?

[humanitee]

No. Unless someone dumps their brains out.

Prognosis:

[n8rwJeTt8TrrLKPa55eU]

When can I buy with a reasonable assurance (confidence 7 on a scale of 1..10) that we're not due for a large (>20%) correction?

It's unknowable.  But you can minimize your risk and the emotional rollercoaster by Dollar Cost Averaging.  Divide your funds by 12 and buy one twelfth for each of the next 12 months.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_cost_averaging