Bearish TA

[Pecunia non olet]

https://twitter.com/whaleclubco/status/585967228681641984



i thought this idea was worth sharing

[Okurkabinladin]

So in your opinion double digits are possible and bear market will continue for another 3+ months? Not impossible, just unlikely. Final flash crash and recovery to atleast current levels seems more like bitcoin.

[Pecunia non olet]

So in your opinion double digits are possible and bear market will continue for another 3+ months? Not impossible, just unlikely. Final flash crash and recovery to atleast current levels seems more like bitcoin.

I'm undecided on the future but i thought this idea was interesting. I would not be surprised to find BTC in the 100$-range just because of the costs of running it are so high

3600 (coins) times 245 (dollar) times 365 days = 321 MILLION USD need to be spent on bitcoin in the next year for it to hold this current marketcap.
I am not sure if it can attract another 321 million after what we have seen lately and how it is looking right now. Downward pressure is quite high on this inflation-coin.

I'd be happy if we could enter some stagnation now until halving. I don't think a big bullrun is likely this year for this particular coin.

[Okurkabinladin]

Fair, but you didnt count in, that many investors are hodlers (and I am not even counting Satoshi), efectivelly several millions of coins are out of the market. Either in storage or lost. Also ecosystem isnt stagnant, but still slowly growing. My point is, that just keeping current value of Btc might be much cheaper, than you suggest.

Btw.: Good TA  perfectly possible.

[Pecunia non olet]

Fair, but you didnt count in, that many investors are hodlers (and I am not even counting Satoshi), efectivelly several millions of coins are out of the market. Either in storage or lost. Also ecosystem isnt stagnant, but still slowly growing. My point is, that just keeping current value of Btc might be much cheaper, than you suggest.

Btw.: Good TA  perfectly possible.

The holding that is going on isn't so important compared to the additional supply of coins that keeps coming to market through mining every day imo. Coins being held and not traded don't affect the market. It's good people hold their coins BUT 3600 new coins are created each and every day for some more time. These need to be absorbed regularly at marketprice.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Well, it can't be assumed that every one of those coins hit the market. There is no way to prove such speculation, but I will agree that there needs to be an exorbitant amount of new money coming in to hold this price long term or especially to start the next bull run.

I'll also add this as backing info for the chart in the OP

[inca]

So in your opinion double digits are possible and bear market will continue for another 3+ months? Not impossible, just unlikely. Final flash crash and recovery to atleast current levels seems more like bitcoin.

I'm undecided on the future but i thought this idea was interesting. I would not be surprised to find BTC in the 100$-range just because of the costs of running it are so high

3600 (coins) times 245 (dollar) times 365 days = 321 MILLION USD need to be spent on bitcoin in the next year for it to hold this current marketcap.
I am not sure if it can attract another 321 million after what we have seen lately and how it is looking right now. Downward pressure is quite high on this inflation-coin.

I'd be happy if we could enter some stagnation now until halving. I don't think a big bullrun is likely this year for this particular coin.

You think the cost of running the network is 3600*exchange price * 365?

Lol.

[tokeweed]

So in your opinion double digits are possible and bear market will continue for another 3+ months? Not impossible, just unlikely. Final flash crash and recovery to atleast current levels seems more like bitcoin.

Lol.  Don't rule anything out.  A lot of people thought going > 600 was "impossible".  Then > 500.. then > 300.

I honestly thought it wouldn't go below 200, but it did.  Although it recovered.  Right now I got buy orders at 170 - 180. 

[tokeweed]

So in your opinion double digits are possible and bear market will continue for another 3+ months? Not impossible, just unlikely. Final flash crash and recovery to atleast current levels seems more like bitcoin.

I'm undecided on the future but i thought this idea was interesting. I would not be surprised to find BTC in the 100$-range just because of the costs of running it are so high

3600 (coins) times 245 (dollar) times 365 days = 321 MILLION USD need to be spent on bitcoin in the next year for it to hold this current marketcap.
I am not sure if it can attract another 321 million after what we have seen lately and how it is looking right now. Downward pressure is quite high on this inflation-coin.

I'd be happy if we could enter some stagnation now until halving. I don't think a big bullrun is likely this year for this particular coin.

Don't rule anything out.  

Chances are if there's a bull run you might miss it because you thought it's unlikely. 

[ensurance982]

Why shouldn't we turn this trend around again? I think the most probably scenario right now is that the bull market of 2013 was mostly caused by gox and the block halving, many ASIC companies, and a lot of media attention. If we factor out those bubbles, we're still on the long-term exponential track!

[poncho32]

So in your opinion double digits are possible and bear market will continue for another 3+ months? Not impossible, just unlikely. Final flash crash and recovery to atleast current levels seems more like bitcoin.

Lol.  Don't rule anything out.  A lot of people thought going > 600 was "impossible".  Then > 500.. then > 300.

I honestly thought it wouldn't go below 200, but it did.  Although it recovered.  Right now I got buy orders at 170 - 180. 

I thought it had bottomed out at 300 and all I had to do was hodl and wait for the price to go up. I couldn't believe how fast it went down to 150 after Christmas. I'm not ruling anything out anymore.

[tokeweed]

Why shouldn't we turn this trend around again? I think the most probably scenario right now is that the bull market of 2013 was mostly caused by gox and the block halving, many ASIC companies, and a lot of media attention. If we factor out those bubbles, we're still on the long-term exponential track!

That late 2013 surge to 1200 was caused by the Willybot.  The media attention just followed after because of the surge.  Everyone thought that was it, the big one.  But just like the stock market hype machine, it's not.

[ensurance982]

Why shouldn't we turn this trend around again? I think the most probably scenario right now is that the bull market of 2013 was mostly caused by gox and the block halving, many ASIC companies, and a lot of media attention. If we factor out those bubbles, we're still on the long-term exponential track!

That late 2013 surge to 1200 was caused by the Willybot.  The media attention just followed after because of the surge.  Everyone thought that was it, the big one.  But just like the stock market hype machine, it's not.

Even if factor out both bubbles of 2013, we're back at the long-term exponential trendline. I also believe that the Willybot may be a real factor in this whole deal, but Bitcoin has gone up before Willy was in charge.

[Amph]

Why shouldn't we turn this trend around again? I think the most probably scenario right now is that the bull market of 2013 was mostly caused by gox and the block halving, many ASIC companies, and a lot of media attention. If we factor out those bubbles, we're still on the long-term exponential track!

That late 2013 surge to 1200 was caused by the Willybot.  The media attention just followed after because of the surge.  Everyone thought that was it, the big one.  But just like the stock market hype machine, it's not.

Even if factor out both bubbles of 2013, we're back at the long-term exponential trendline. I also believe that the Willybot may be a real factor in this whole deal, but Bitcoin has gone up before Willy was in charge.

because it wasn't only willybot that rised the price(i''m not buying it at all), that was just an assumption made from someone here, i would add that chinese played a big role too, and also doge has brought many new comers to bitcoin's scene, that was also another reason for the 1200 peak

[ensurance982]

Why shouldn't we turn this trend around again? I think the most probably scenario right now is that the bull market of 2013 was mostly caused by gox and the block halving, many ASIC companies, and a lot of media attention. If we factor out those bubbles, we're still on the long-term exponential track!

That late 2013 surge to 1200 was caused by the Willybot.  The media attention just followed after because of the surge.  Everyone thought that was it, the big one.  But just like the stock market hype machine, it's not.

Even if factor out both bubbles of 2013, we're back at the long-term exponential trendline. I also believe that the Willybot may be a real factor in this whole deal, but Bitcoin has gone up before Willy was in charge.

because it wasn't only willybot that rised the price(i''m not buying it at all), that was just an assumption made from someone here, i would add that chinese played a big role too, and also doge has brought many new comers to bitcoin's scene, that was also another reason for the 1200 peak

Well, there are the logs that have been leaked. And they do pretty well show the activity of that account buying the coins. The only argument against the bot is "the amount he bought compared to the total volume (10% or something) is negligible" well, those 10% were only buys - effectively eliminating all the newly minted coins, and potentially more.

[tokeweed]

Why shouldn't we turn this trend around again? I think the most probably scenario right now is that the bull market of 2013 was mostly caused by gox and the block halving, many ASIC companies, and a lot of media attention. If we factor out those bubbles, we're still on the long-term exponential track!

That late 2013 surge to 1200 was caused by the Willybot.  The media attention just followed after because of the surge.  Everyone thought that was it, the big one.  But just like the stock market hype machine, it's not.

Even if factor out both bubbles of 2013, we're back at the long-term exponential trendline. I also believe that the Willybot may be a real factor in this whole deal, but Bitcoin has gone up before Willy was in charge.

because it wasn't only willybot that rised the price(i''m not buying it at all), that was just an assumption made from someone here, i would add that chinese played a big role too, and also doge has brought many new comers to bitcoin's scene, that was also another reason for the 1200 peak

What occured late 2013 was a pump and dump, pure and simple.  

Some people would say no...  But BTC is an unregulated market place and it happened, and will happen again again.  Even in regulated market exchanges the pump and dump happens.  It's a reality in the markets.

[inca]

Why shouldn't we turn this trend around again? I think the most probably scenario right now is that the bull market of 2013 was mostly caused by gox and the block halving, many ASIC companies, and a lot of media attention. If we factor out those bubbles, we're still on the long-term exponential track!

That late 2013 surge to 1200 was caused by the Willybot.  The media attention just followed after because of the surge.  Everyone thought that was it, the big one.  But just like the stock market hype machine, it's not.

Even if factor out both bubbles of 2013, we're back at the long-term exponential trendline. I also believe that the Willybot may be a real factor in this whole deal, but Bitcoin has gone up before Willy was in charge.

because it wasn't only willybot that rised the price(i''m not buying it at all), that was just an assumption made from someone here, i would add that chinese played a big role too, and also doge has brought many new comers to bitcoin's scene, that was also another reason for the 1200 peak

What occured late 2013 was a pump and dump, pure and simple.  

Some people would say no...  But BTC is an unregulated market place and it happened, and will happen again again.  Even in regulated market exchanges the pump and dump happens.  It's a reality in the markets.

It is also just your interpretation of the events that occurred. It ignores that Mt Gox died with an alleged 1/2 billion dollar loss of coins that probably never existed except on the gox internal database. It ignores that the Chinese central bank deliberately intervened to threaten the legality of bitcoin in the 2nd biggest economy of the world, a country that was responsible in part for the rising price during the end of 2013.

The price got ahead of itself after a bubble and has been deflating. The difference this time is that leveraged exchanges like bitfinex have prolonged this bear market hugely by allowing shorting.

[BitcoinNewbie15]

This TA id indeed quite bearish... I'm not sure if BTC will continue that trend or not. double digits does seem far away, but I guess it could be very possible.

[AceWallen]

So in your opinion double digits are possible and bear market will continue for another 3+ months? Not impossible, just unlikely. Final flash crash and recovery to atleast current levels seems more like bitcoin.

yeah but there is no denying that we have been in a consistent bear market for more than a year. any moving average system on the weekly chart will tell you that. so i am more interested in when *this* will end.

[tokeweed]

Why shouldn't we turn this trend around again? I think the most probably scenario right now is that the bull market of 2013 was mostly caused by gox and the block halving, many ASIC companies, and a lot of media attention. If we factor out those bubbles, we're still on the long-term exponential track!

That late 2013 surge to 1200 was caused by the Willybot.  The media attention just followed after because of the surge.  Everyone thought that was it, the big one.  But just like the stock market hype machine, it's not.

Even if factor out both bubbles of 2013, we're back at the long-term exponential trendline. I also believe that the Willybot may be a real factor in this whole deal, but Bitcoin has gone up before Willy was in charge.

because it wasn't only willybot that rised the price(i''m not buying it at all), that was just an assumption made from someone here, i would add that chinese played a big role too, and also doge has brought many new comers to bitcoin's scene, that was also another reason for the 1200 peak

What occured late 2013 was a pump and dump, pure and simple.  

Some people would say no...  But BTC is an unregulated market place and it happened, and will happen again again.  Even in regulated market exchanges the pump and dump happens.  It's a reality in the markets.

It is also just your interpretation of the events that occurred. It ignores that Mt Gox died with an alleged 1/2 billion dollar loss of coins that probably never existed except on the gox internal database. It ignores that the Chinese central bank deliberately intervened to threaten the legality of bitcoin in the 2nd biggest economy of the world, a country that was responsible in part for the rising price during the end of 2013.

The price got ahead of itself after a bubble and has been deflating. The difference this time is that leveraged exchanges like bitfinex have prolonged this bear market hugely by allowing shorting.

My point is this... BTC is unregulated, so price manipulation did happen and will happen.  Even stocks are manipulated all the time.  And that's regulated and overlooked by the SEC, mind you.  What more the crypto-scene?