Do you think mining will be profitable again ?

[alh]

Hello,
I really want start mining, but I know actually it's not profitable and most of the time it's a waste of money.
So I wanted to kknow if you think that the mining will be profitable again ?
If not, why there is still so much miner ?

i don't think it will profitable any more, it is profitable only for old miners who already got their investment returned for mining hardware and  now they are only mining at cost of electricity while new miner has to earn for electricity and hardware investment

 There are ways to make money at this without owning anything more then a pc..  Proper spot rentals will earn you money.
 So to the op mining via rental is profitable  today if you know when to rent and wait for the right prices.

So you have to wait for a time when somebody on Westhash (for example) is willing to rent their mining hardware at a rate lower than what they would get mining on a pool? Kinda the opposite of when I renting out the hash on my SP20 at 30-40% over the rate I would get on Kano's pool? An "efficient market" theory would suggest that those kinds of disparities don't exist, or at least not for very long.

[notlist3d]

Hello,
I really want start mining, but I know actually it's not profitable and most of the time it's a waste of money.
So I wanted to kknow if you think that the mining will be profitable again ?
If not, why there is still so much miner ?

i don't think it will profitable any more, it is profitable only for old miners who already got their investment returned for mining hardware and  now they are only mining at cost of electricity while new miner has to earn for electricity and hardware investment

 There are ways to make money at this without owning anything more then a pc..  Proper spot rentals will earn you money.
 So to the op mining via rental is profitable  today if you know when to rent and wait for the right prices.

So you have to wait for a time when somebody on Westhash (for example) is willing to rent their mining hardware at a rate lower than what they would get mining on a pool? Kinda the opposite of when I renting out the hash on my SP20 at 30-40% over the rate I would get on Kano's pool? An "efficient market" theory would suggest that those kinds of disparities don't exist, or at least not for very long.

If you watch westhash/nicehash they have been under btc price a surprising amount of time.  I have seen -8 percent.   Some people point it there and do not use the code to pick price.   So with this some get a profit from renting there.

[philipma1957]

Hello,
I really want start mining, but I know actually it's not profitable and most of the time it's a waste of money.
So I wanted to kknow if you think that the mining will be profitable again ?
If not, why there is still so much miner ?

i don't think it will profitable any more, it is profitable only for old miners who already got their investment returned for mining hardware and  now they are only mining at cost of electricity while new miner has to earn for electricity and hardware investment

 There are ways to make money at this without owning anything more then a pc..  Proper spot rentals will earn you money.
 So to the op mining via rental is profitable  today if you know when to rent and wait for the right prices.

So you have to wait for a time when somebody on Westhash (for example) is willing to rent their mining hardware at a rate lower than what they would get mining on a pool? Kinda the opposite of when I renting out the hash on my SP20 at 30-40% over the rate I would get on Kano's pool? An "efficient market" theory would suggest that those kinds of disparities don't exist, or at least not for very long.

  careful timing will give you 3 to 5 days each difficulty adjustment that are more then 5% under.

So renting 500th at .0092 when real price is 0.01055 can be done.  then point at a pps pool paying 0.0101 .

 when all is said and done 3% a day profit  pretty much certain to profit.

I just rented 6btc over the last 3 days.  I paid 0.0092 to 0.0094  pointed it at f2pool and was   paid 0.01013   basically 6btc in and 6.18btc back.

I did this with https://mining.bitcoinaffiliatenetwork.com/index.php  on and off for 3 months it was   harder to get low prices  .  I suspect a lot of people were trying to do it with them.  But they started paying really slow and I became afraid to use them.

So with no gear and patience  mining makes money right now.

[alh]

So kinda like "hashing arbitrage"?

Seems less risky than just trading Bitcoins with the inevitable fees whenever you convert BTC to/from USD.

I wonder how long term a strategy this is, though the terms "long term" might be a bit silly in the Bitcoin realm. 

[notlist3d]

So kinda like "hashing arbitrage"?

Seems less risky than just trading Bitcoins with the inevitable fees whenever you convert BTC to/from USD.

I wonder how long term a strategy this is, though the terms "long term" might be a bit silly in the Bitcoin realm. 

Depending on how low nicehash/westhash is it's better then arbitrage.  Within past week you could have rented at -8 percent. No I cannot explain why anyone let's their gear mine there without price set up correctly.   

But you could go for a entire month of arbitrage and not make 8 percent if it goes wrong.

[philipma1957]

comes and goes. right now someone is paying .0093 to mine they are getting 868gh

and have 1.6 coins on order #358916  if it is pointed at f2pool  spread is 0.00930 to 0.01017

if at ban and ban pays it is 0.00930 to  0.01057

ban has been paying slowly but that is a big difference.

[Bicknellski]

It already is profitable for KNC, Bitfury and others. That is why they don't sell to home miners and mine their own massive farms.

Will it ever be profitable for the home or small miner again? No it will only get worse see what Spondoolies Tech has done? Partnerships to build larger and larger hash rate farms with higher and higher efficiency. You can't compete with that at home. Game over.

[jdebunt]

As others have said, profitable at home: probably not. profitable for major companies manufacturing hardware: probably until 2140.

[hedgy73]

It already is profitable for KNC, Bitfury and others. That is why they don't sell to home miners and mine their own massive farms.

Will it ever be profitable for the home or small miner again? No it will only get worse see what Spondoolies Tech has done? Partnerships to build larger and larger hash rate farms with higher and higher efficiency. You can't compete with that at home. Game over.

I couldn't agree more, unless you're lucky enough to have dirt cheap electricity and the latest efficient hardware then you might make small profits for the short term.

[philipma1957]

It already is profitable for KNC, Bitfury and others. That is why they don't sell to home miners and mine their own massive farms.

Will it ever be profitable for the home or small miner again? No it will only get worse see what Spondoolies Tech has done? Partnerships to build larger and larger hash rate farms with higher and higher efficiency. You can't compete with that at home. Game over.

Okay

   Spondoolies-tech
   Bitfury
   KNC

All decide to cut small miners out.

Leaves us

Bitmaintech
Sfards
Avalon----------------your favorite company------------just a joke among the two of us.
and whatever others.

No one profits by having more hashrate if they are self mining.

Escalation hurts all giant miners. Unless they sell outside their  own mining camps.

This is a fact.  BTW this is one reason growth is slowing.  If I have 10% of the whole network with 2 watt machines.

The same 10% of the network with a .4 watt machine is a score.  No big company needs more hash.  All big self mining companies need more efficient hash and low power costs.

Big companies will never squeeze the little guy fully out of the picture.

But as I have said WTF do I know I thought iPads would never sell when they first came out.

[Bicknellski]

It already is profitable for KNC, Bitfury and others. That is why they don't sell to home miners and mine their own massive farms.

Will it ever be profitable for the home or small miner again? No it will only get worse see what Spondoolies Tech has done? Partnerships to build larger and larger hash rate farms with higher and higher efficiency. You can't compete with that at home. Game over.

Okay

   Spondoolies-tech
   Bitfury
   KNC
   Bitmaintech

All decide to cut small miners out.

Leaves us

Bitmaintech
Sfards
Avalon----------------your favorite company------------just a joke among the two of us.
and whatever others.

No one profits by having more hashrate if they are self mining.

Escalation hurts all giant miners. Unless they sell outside their  own mining camps.

This is a fact.  BTW this is one reason growth is slowing.  If I have 10% of the whole network with 2 watt machines.

The same 10% of the network with a .4 watt machine is a score.  No big company needs more hash.  All big self mining companies need more efficient hash and low power costs.

Big companies will never squeeze the little guy fully out of the picture.

But as I have said WTF do I know I thought iPads would never sell when they first came out.

Bitmaintech mines massively and sells the leftovers to home miners. Will they continue to sell to smaller interests as long as it is after getting a few weeks off them first probably but doubtful longer term given the RMAs etc mounting. I suspect by 2016 they will not be selling nor will SFARDS nor Avalon. The last two maybe way too late and inefficient moving in 2016. Competing with Spondoolies and BitFury and KNC you can't be behind the efficiency curve as it eats your mining profits.

[hedgy73]

Most of the big manufacturers have been mining with their own hardware for a while before selling it on to home miners.

Problem is as weeks and months pass and difficulty increases fewer people are mining at home because there's no point.

Manufacturers will be left with all their own hardware eventually because no-one will want to buy it.

[notlist3d]

Most of the big manufacturers have been mining with their own hardware for a while before selling it on to home miners.

Problem is as weeks and months pass and difficulty increases fewer people are mining at home because there's no point.

Manufacturers will be left with all their own hardware eventually because no-one will want to buy it.

With miner's they have to use them before until they sell.   They are a item that loses money if they put it in a box and wait for sale.  And most are made in batches meaning there are more miners then will be sold immediately.

If they don't announce them and run them yes it's a different thing.   But if plugged in until it sales I would consider this normal.

[alh]

With miner's they have to use them before until they sell.   They are a item that loses money if they put it in a box and wait for sale.  And most are made in batches meaning there are more miners then will be sold immediately.

If they don't announce them and run them yes it's a different thing.   But if plugged in until it sales I would consider this normal.

While this may be considered normal behavior for a Bitcoin mining manufacturer in the last year or so, it's not normal behavior for a whole host of other vendors. Think Automobile dealer for example. Their new cars sitting on the lot depreciate, though much less quickly than mining gear. You could argue that they should rent them until somebody actually buys them, but there are a whole host of constraints on that kind of behavior in the US. Would you buy a "new" car that already had 3000 miles on it? What about a GPU manufacturer 2 years ago?

I would argue that this definition of "normal behavior" has been forced on purchasers over the last 12-18 months. I don't know if BFL was the first one to do it or not, but it's certainly not limited to them.

[notlist3d]

With miner's they have to use them before until they sell.   They are a item that loses money if they put it in a box and wait for sale.  And most are made in batches meaning there are more miners then will be sold immediately.

If they don't announce them and run them yes it's a different thing.   But if plugged in until it sales I would consider this normal.

While this may be considered normal behavior for a Bitcoin mining manufacturer in the last year or so, it's not normal behavior for a whole host of other vendors. Think Automobile dealer for example. Their new cars sitting on the lot depreciate, though much less quickly than mining gear. You could argue that they should rent them until somebody actually buys them, but there are a whole host of constraints on that kind of behavior in the US. Would you buy a "new" car that already had 3000 miles on it? What about a GPU manufacturer 2 years ago?

I would argue that this definition of "normal behavior" has been forced on purchasers over the last 12-18 months. I don't know if BFL was the first one to do it or not, but it's certainly not limited to them.

It is a specialty product.  If they put them in a box and don't use  it loses value each day.  New cars don't normally lose value when sitting there.  And GPU is a different monster they were made for the gaming industry, mining just happened to be something they also did.

When you buy a new miner you get a warranty.  So this helps, it gives you time to test the miner and make sure it works good.  Unless they are pre-ordered I would consider the batch system normal.  And with making in batches it is normal to plug in till sold, not just leave in a box. 

[philipma1957]

With miner's they have to use them before until they sell.   They are a item that loses money if they put it in a box and wait for sale.  And most are made in batches meaning there are more miners then will be sold immediately.

If they don't announce them and run them yes it's a different thing.   But if plugged in until it sales I would consider this normal.

While this may be considered normal behavior for a Bitcoin mining manufacturer in the last year or so, it's not normal behavior for a whole host of other vendors. Think Automobile dealer for example. Their new cars sitting on the lot depreciate, though much less quickly than mining gear. You could argue that they should rent them until somebody actually buys them, but there are a whole host of constraints on that kind of behavior in the US. Would you buy a "new" car that already had 3000 miles on it? What about a GPU manufacturer 2 years ago?

I would argue that this definition of "normal behavior" has been forced on purchasers over the last 12-18 months. I don't know if BFL was the first one to do it or not, but it's certainly not limited to them.

Most cars are not a machine that makes money.
so to use a car is tough to think it is the correct comparable.

 This is not an easy industry.  We are now in tough times with tight profits. Not sure what will happen in the long run. It would be nice to see a price runup.

[adaseb]

Is there anyway to make extra profit by pool hopping like on Antpool when its having a bad luck day?

I tried the Nicehash/Westhash mining on F2 but too many people are doing it that the spread isn't large enough to make any actual profit.

Anyone know how the PPLNS work on Antpool?


Earlier today

354948   2015-05-04 18:18:01   000000000000000003aebef4f27f4d7f1153137f234b407cb38732819e8e95bd   25.14659258   43/120   3h 47m 39s     26.25%   57.07 PH/s   181,488,452,448
354930   2015-05-04 14:30:22   000000000000000008a270742bf9d932df2ef71d03ea9ecdd03706e82d05347e   25.05103519   61/120   3h 19m     30.16%   56.82 PH/s   157,962,257,008


It had very bad luck on 2 blocks but if you jumped in and mined the next 7 blocks youre luck would have been 250%.


But would your shares actually count on the next 7 blocks? No idea exactly how PPLNS works

[alh]

Most other industries recognize the difference between "new" and "used". While I completely understand that Bitcoin mining hardware depreciates way faster than almost anything else, lots of other equipment depreciates while it sits unused. That car that arrives on the dealers lot today, that then doesn't sell until November will sell for less than if it sold next week. It's still "new" and will be treated as such, but the dealer will certainly not expect to receive the same as it sells before the new model year cars start to arrive. It has depreciated in value, even though it hasn't been used by any stretch of the imagination.

The Apple iPhone N-1 that arrived at the Walmart store 3 weeks before the iPhone N, will not sell for the same price as when the first iPhone N-1 was introduced. Walmart understand that it's not as valuable and sells it for less before it depreciates even more. It didn't get used, and still depreciated.

The only real difference is that a Bitcoin miner has a much shorter economic life span than an iPhone or a car.

I would also argue that a miner as used by a mining farm, really isn't all the different from a car that was acquired by Hertz, Avis, National, Alamo and so forth. They are both a machine used to make money. The car just depreciates less quickly than the miner. Both are resold at near then of their economic life span, a few months for the miner, maybe 2-3 years for the rental car. Both had ongoing cost while they were being used, and had risks of damage or loss.

I understand that it's not in the sellers best interest to let the machine sit in a box, but running flat out for a month until somebody actually pays for it and it's shipped on it's way, isn't really the same as "new" is it?

I think the "batch model" is just a manufacturing convenience for the vendor.

I won't belabor the point any more, but obscuring the difference between "new" and "used" is largely driven by the manufacturers to their benefit.

[notlist3d]

I think the "batch model" is just a manufacturing convenience for the vendor.

I won't belabor the point any more, but obscuring the difference between "new" and "used" is largely driven by the manufacturers to their benefit.

Batch allows companies to produce miners without pre-ordering so that is good in my book.   I personally don't like pre-ordering.

But you cant expect a mining company to not use a miner that is not sold.   If a few weeks or a month they would take a pretty good loss from leaving it in a box.

[Bicknellski]

With this mentality the logical jump is why even sell to joe q public avoid the hassle. The reason they are selling them on is to make profit. Mine it. Sell it. Repeat. It is not like they are saying oh we have a few extra here better throw them on the network. They make the unit it is immediately pressed into mining and then sell off whatever they can after reaping the most they can from it via mining. Is it unethical? No. All the power to them to do it. The fact remains it makes no sense to be a home miner now so the only winners here are those selling the units. Stop ordering miners for small to medium sized operations. It is over.

Again the end game is now as soon as too few people buy units off the farm like this to make this a viable business model they will stop doing it. Meaning by 2016 will be the end of the road if not sooner for companies relying solely on this model like Avalon does or has tried. Bitmain is sufficiently set up to FARM massively so they will not care too much either way and will gouge every penny they can from those still foolish enough to keep buying. This is the way it will continue until there are no customers left willing to buy miners at a loss with no hope of ROI. Not everyone has realized it yet I guess most have and some people continue to keep pushing home mining for no other reason I guess but to get paid for the signature campaigns far as I can tell.

This post's for you.

I think the "batch model" is just a manufacturing convenience for the vendor.

I won't belabor the point any more, but obscuring the difference between "new" and "used" is largely driven by the manufacturers to their benefit.

Batch allows companies to produce miners without pre-ordering so that is good in my book.   I personally don't like pre-ordering.

But you cant expect a mining company to not use a miner that is not sold.   If a few weeks or a month they would take a pretty good loss from leaving it in a box.