2016 Halving: Could It Actually Kill BTC?

[gogxmagog]

I was just thinking this morning, about the reward halving upcoming sometime 2016. Most ppl here are pretty assured that when the halving happens it will guarantee that BTC will increase in value. There have been plenty of guarantees over the last year or so and none have panned out so far. If BTC remains at its current performance level, wouldn't the halving merely drive any miners operating at a thin margin out, make mining not profitable enough for new miners to get in the game and basically slow the network? I understand supply and demand, but demand drives that, not necessarily supply. If no one wants a 200$ btc, it doesn't matter how many there are or how hard they are to mine?

just a shower thought, what's your take? and please, limit your "BTC CAN NEVAR DIE and you sir are a cock!" statements to provable truths, not opinionated speculation please. BTC could die and very well might. I hope not, but that isn't the point of this thread.

What do you think will really happen when the halving comes? anyone thought through any scenarios?

[spazzdla]

There are miners that mine to secure the network.  I would love to have a weeding out of the miners that are in it for profit alone.  The massive mine farms must die.

The network would weaken heavily but not die.  Coins mined would go to those that are interested in Bitcoin and not profit.

I want to see sub $100 coins for a couple months to cause the collapse of the mining farms.  The purpose of mining should be to secure it not to profit...  Merica and friends will attack it.. will you defend it? 

[Amph]

I was just thinking this morning, about the reward halving upcoming sometime 2016. Most ppl here are pretty assured that when the halving happens it will guarantee that BTC will increase in value. There have been plenty of guarantees over the last year or so and none have panned out so far. If BTC remains at its current performance level, wouldn't the halving merely drive any miners operating at a thin margin out, make mining not profitable enough for new miners to get in the game and basically slow the network? I understand supply and demand, but demand drives that, not necessarily supply. If no one wants a 200$ btc, it doesn't matter how many there are or how hard they are to mine?

just a shower thought, what's your take? and please, limit your "BTC CAN NEVAR DIE and you sir are a cock!" statements to provable truths, not opinionated speculation please. BTC could die and very well might. I hope not, but that isn't the point of this thread.

What do you think will really happen when the halving comes? anyone thought through any scenarios?

this is ws always my thought, but many users seem to not agree with this, interest is more importan or in the worst case equal to supply, and having less doesn't mean that bitcoin will worth more, there are chance that the halving will only reduce numbers of miners(and therefore the diff, this could be a good thing actually, small farms could join the network finally) and nothing else

in the end i think that it will stay the same or a little boot will occur nothing crazy, especially if you compare it to the first halving(50 to 25 on november 28 2012), the price didn't change too much(almost x2) there....

There are miners that mine to secure the network.  I would love to have a weeding out of the miners that are in it for profit alone.  The massive mine farms must die.

The network would weaken heavily but not die.  Coins mined would go to those that are interested in Bitcoin and not profit.

I want to see sub $100 coins for a couple months to cause the collapse of the mining farms.  The purpose of mining should be to secure it not to profit...  Merica and friends will attack it.. will you defend it?  

you didn't get it, that profit should be seen as a reward for securing the network, the network is actually working as intended by satoshi, there was one of his msg regarding this

[ebliever]

I was just thinking this morning, about the reward halving upcoming sometime 2016. Most ppl here are pretty assured that when the halving happens it will guarantee that BTC will increase in value. There have been plenty of guarantees over the last year or so and none have panned out so far. If BTC remains at its current performance level, wouldn't the halving merely drive any miners operating at a thin margin out, make mining not profitable enough for new miners to get in the game and basically slow the network? I understand supply and demand, but demand drives that, not necessarily supply. If no one wants a 200$ btc, it doesn't matter how many there are or how hard they are to mine?

just a shower thought, what's your take? and please, limit your "BTC CAN NEVAR DIE and you sir are a cock!" statements to provable truths, not opinionated speculation please. BTC could die and very well might. I hope not, but that isn't the point of this thread.

What do you think will really happen when the halving comes? anyone thought through any scenarios?

No, the network will not slow. It adjusts every 2016 blocks, so any slowdown would be minor and temporary.

[spazzdla]

If the reward is an incentive and the only reason to mine bitcoin, bitcoin WILL fail no questoins asked.

Bitcoin never should of went below like 1 milibit payout if this is the case.

I mine to secure the network.  MINERS AT ARMS.

[RodeoX]

It's halved before and did not die. Although a lot of people said it would. But then again some always say that.

[lophie]

Okay. In my opinion,

Take the average number of bitcoin bought in a day for the period of two weeks against. Assume 50% has nothing to do with miners. Then it is easy to assume an increase of at least 10-20%.

[dothebeats]

I was just thinking this morning, about the reward halving upcoming sometime 2016. Most ppl here are pretty assured that when the halving happens it will guarantee that BTC will increase in value. There have been plenty of guarantees over the last year or so and none have panned out so far. If BTC remains at its current performance level, wouldn't the halving merely drive any miners operating at a thin margin out, make mining not profitable enough for new miners to get in the game and basically slow the network? I understand supply and demand, but demand drives that, not necessarily supply. If no one wants a 200$ btc, it doesn't matter how many there are or how hard they are to mine?

just a shower thought, what's your take? and please, limit your "BTC CAN NEVAR DIE and you sir are a cock!" statements to provable truths, not opinionated speculation please. BTC could die and very well might. I hope not, but that isn't the point of this thread.

What do you think will really happen when the halving comes? anyone thought through any scenarios?

Keep also in mind that companies have invested tons of their resources solely for mining bitcoin. It may be true that the miners that do not have the specialized hardware to profit will leave the mining scene, but still we can't deny the fact that the majority of the hashing power of the bitcoin network are distributed to large mining companies. Also, there had been a lot of money that has been invested in btc lately. This might reflect in the future, making bitcoins a valued asset by many people and large companies as well. With it, mining could be profitable--at least for those who have the equipment. Bitcoin would sure end if all the miners shut down their hardware, but I highly doubt that it is possible, as there are still people who sees mining as a profitable business.

[Bit_Happy]

I was just thinking this morning, about the reward halving upcoming sometime 2016. Most ppl here are pretty assured that when the halving happens it will guarantee that BTC will increase in value. There have been plenty of guarantees over the last year or so and none have panned out so far. If BTC remains at its current performance level, wouldn't the halving merely drive any miners operating at a thin margin out, make mining not profitable enough for new miners to get in the game and basically slow the network? I understand supply and demand, but demand drives that, not necessarily supply. If no one wants a 200$ btc, it doesn't matter how many there are or how hard they are to mine?

just a shower thought, what's your take? and please, limit your "BTC CAN NEVAR DIE and you sir are a cock!" statements to provable truths, not opinionated speculation please. BTC could die and very well might. I hope not, but that isn't the point of this thread.

What do you think will really happen when the halving comes? anyone thought through any scenarios?

The network hashing power in insanely high compared to (for example) 2 or 3 years ago. We could lose half the miners and still have an extremely secure network, so Bitcoin is far from dead/dying/troubled, etc.

[DannyHamilton]

I was just thinking this morning, about the reward halving upcoming sometime 2016. Most ppl here are pretty assured that when the halving happens it will guarantee that BTC will increase in value.

Those people are fools.  It might increase in value, it might decrease in value, it might stay the same.  There are far too many influences on the exchange rate to assume that just because the mining subsidy will be cut in half the exchange rate will rise.

There have been plenty of guarantees over the last year or so and none have panned out so far.

Not much of a "guarantee" then, is it?  Perhaps you should put a bit more effort into filtering who you accept advice and information from.  There are a lot of fools on the internet that will say or believe just about anything.

If BTC remains at its current performance level, wouldn't the halving merely drive any miners operating at a thin margin out,

Yes.

make mining not profitable enough for new miners to get in the game

Perhaps.  But if so, then the difficulty will drop and it will become profitable again.

and basically slow the network?

Perhaps for a short while, but if the average time between blocks is greater than 10 minutes, then the mining difficulty will be reduced every 2016 blocks until the average time returns to 10 minutes.

I understand supply and demand, but demand drives that, not necessarily supply.

Then you don't understand it.  It's the interaction between supply AND demand that influence price.

If no one wants a 200$ btc, it doesn't matter how many there are or how hard they are to mine?

And if someone wants a BTC and the cheapest one available is $200, it doesn't matter how many people are willing to pay less.

What do you think will really happen when the halving comes? anyone thought through any scenarios?

It's unpredictable, literally.  Anyone that tells you otherwise is either lying to you or doesn't know better.

Of course, we have had a halving in the past and we seem to have survived it.  Perhaps we will again.

[SpanishSoldier]

As usual an awesome reply by Danny. But I contradict over a point and have a Q...

If BTC remains at its current performance level, wouldn't the halving merely drive any miners operating at a thin margin out,

Yes.

No. Because mining fees may rise as well as miners may start including more Tx in a block to cover their expense.

What do you think will really happen when the halving comes? anyone thought through any scenarios?

It's unpredictable, literally.  Anyone that tells you otherwise is either lying to you or doesn't know better.

Of course, we have had a halving in the past and we seem to have survived it.  Perhaps we will again.

When we have had a halving in the past, did we experience a price rise ?

[Amph]

As usual an awesome reply by Danny. But I contradict over a point and have a Q...

If BTC remains at its current performance level, wouldn't the halving merely drive any miners operating at a thin margin out,

Yes.

No. Because mining fees may rise as well as miners may start including more Tx in a block to cover their expense.

What do you think will really happen when the halving comes? anyone thought through any scenarios?

It's unpredictable, literally.  Anyone that tells you otherwise is either lying to you or doesn't know better.

Of course, we have had a halving in the past and we seem to have survived it.  Perhaps we will again.

When we have had a halving in the past, did we experience a price rise ?

chart show x2 in price

https://blockchain.info/en/charts/market-price?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

november 28 2012 the halving, it show about 11-12 dollars, when before that date it was 4-6

[jonald_fyookball]

Those people are fools.  It might increase in value, it might decrease in value, it might stay the same.  There are far too many influences on the exchange rate to assume that just because the mining subsidy will be cut in half the exchange rate will rise.

Some truth to this, yet everything can be boiled down to two things: Supply and Demand.
We cannot predict the demand, but we know that the halving is cutting the supply of new coins
in half, and that's a big part of the equation.

[damiano]

Price will increase or difficulty will adapt, that easy.

It would take quite a while for difficulty to adapt

[Braino]

Bitcoin is inflationary, it increases in value by design. The halving is part of the design.

Maybe try reading and learning about something before posting questions that make no sense.

[SpanishSoldier]

Bitcoin is inflationary, it increases in value by design. The halving is part of the design.

Maybe try reading and learning about something before posting questions that make no sense.

Asset/commodity/currency that increases in value over time, is called Deflationary and it is said that bitcoin is deflationary. OP is a long timer and knows all these basic things.

[Braino]

Bitcoin is inflationary, it increases in value by design. The halving is part of the design.

Maybe try reading and learning about something before posting questions that make no sense.

Asset/commodity/currency that increases in value over time, is called Deflationary and it is said that bitcoin is deflationary. OP is a long timer and knows all these basic things.

Mistyped. Deflationary was what I was referring to obviously. Thanks for the correction

[dropt]

chart show x2 in price

https://blockchain.info/en/charts/market-price?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

november 28 2012 the halving, it show about 11-12 dollars, when before that date it was 4-6

It started creeping up in May 2012.  Know what else happened in May of 12'?  The only 'exchange' (bucketshop) that offered leveraged trading was shutdown.  I wonder if the rise in price had more to do with the inability for people to keep shorting BTC on leverage than it did because of a looming reward adjustment.

[Mr. Burns]

no it is the best thing to ever happen. 

difficulty will drop by 99.99%, plus save the Earth with less greenhouse gases, etc..

[futureofbitcoin]

I agree with the OP. I don't know why so many people automatically assume that halving mining rewards would double the price.

Personally I think this is where bitcoin will prove whether it'll succeed or fail. If it doesn't get past the halving, it'll fail. If it does, I think it's very unlikely for bitcoin to fail afterwards. And I'd certainly be willing to take any amount of loan to buy as much bitcoins as possible then, if someone offered to loan me money.