If Pirate Runs: The Danger of one entity with 500K BTC

[crazy_rabbit]

Still hypothetically,    I hope the bitcoin community has considered the very real danger posed by an individual in control of 500K of BTC. Sure there are accounts with balances almost as high but what is to prevent Pirate or anyone else with so much BTC from cyclically crashing the market and buying up more coins?

Some might say that someone with so many coins wouldn't destroy the market as they are so invested in it, but what happens if their Buy/Sell cycle doesn't destroy bitcoin in the long run, but they are just taking a wager that they can pull it off enough times while bitcoin is small enough and then quit misbehaving when it's bigger?

Even if you can't regularly do $15 to $8, even 1-2$ in change often enough could eventually give you monopolistic power over the bitcoin system.

For bitcoin's sake- I hope Pirate Returns the money, and the community stays away from such "financial innovation" in the future, even if it's not a ponzi.

[Matthew N. Wright]

Still hypothetically,    I hope the bitcoin community has considered the very real danger posed by an individual in control of 500K of BTC. Sure there are accounts with balances almost as high but what is to prevent Pirate or anyone else with so much BTC from cyclically crashing the market and buying up more coins?

Some might say that someone with so many coins wouldn't destroy the market as they are so invested in it, but what happens if their Buy/Sell cycle doesn't destroy bitcoin in the long run, but they are just taking a wager that they can pull it off enough times while bitcoin is small enough and then quit misbehaving when it's bigger?

Even if you can't regularly do $15 to $8, even 1-2$ in change often enough could eventually give you monopolistic power over the bitcoin system.

For bitcoin's sake- I hope Pirate Returns the money, and the community stays away from such "financial innovation" in the future, even if it's not a ponzi.

It's a feature, not a flaw. If you were rich, would you want us barking at you for being able to "control" our supposedly decentralized perfect new world freedom currency? If it's a problem, it won't be fixed by wishful thinking, sunshine and farts, it will be fixed at the application layer.

[bb113]

If a ponzi scheme can "destroy bitcoin" then it should be destroyed. I hope he tries.

[bitcoinBull]

Still hypothetically,    I hope the bitcoin community has considered the very real danger posed by an individual in control of 500K of BTC. Sure there are accounts with balances almost as high but what is to prevent Pirate or anyone else with so much BTC from cyclically crashing the market and buying up more coins?

Other competitors in a market prevent players from consistently out-performing the market. Sure, when you have the most funds you have the biggest advantage, like the having the most chips at a poker table. But how do you know you have the most funds? If you sell intending to buy cheaper, you're betting that there's no well-funded buyer at that price. You could be wrong, and be selling to a better-funded accumulator(s), who will only sell back to you at a higher price. That's how people lose to the market.

Anyone trying to outperform the market can (and will) lose eventually, especially if its growing. (in a shrinking market its easier to continue winning, but the gains shrink until you're the only player).

For bitcoin's sake- I hope Pirate Returns the money, and the community stays away from such "financial innovation" in the future, even if it's not a ponzi.

For bitcoin's sake - I hope he does not make the payouts. If he does, then he was such a fantastic trader I'll eat my hat (I discount the possibility of gains from money laundering or any other non-trading activity). If he does, the scourge of (actual) imitation ponzis which would follow would be utter chaos.


btw, where's the confirmation that he controls 500k BTC?

[divergenta]

^^^
Word. Bitcoin truly need to be stress tested. Pirate is doing us all a favour.

[conspirosphere.tk]

Even if you can't regularly do $15 to $8, even 1-2$ in change often enough could eventually give you monopolistic power over the bitcoin system.

That is the only plausible way he could really do >7% weekly consistently in my view. On the other hand, long periods of price stability like the one around 5$ seem to contradict this idea.  

In any case, many other markets are manipulated by big hidden hands: should I not buy gold and silver for this reason?

[Boussac]

The pump-and-dump scheme will work as long as there is panic selling and panic buying: people who are in it for the long run have little to fear.
Meanwhile this kind of speculative attack is reminiscent of George Soros..

[JoelKatz]

It will cost him money because he will have to bear all the costs of manipulating the market himself and he will have to share the profits with anyone who chooses to follow along for the ride.

While he's pushing the price down to induce a panic sell, others are buying his Bitcoins for less than they are worth medium-term.  And then he has to compete with everyone else to buy any Bitcoins that are sold in panic as the market quickly rises.

While he's pushing the price up to sell above fair market value, others are selling him Bitcoins for more than they are worth medium-term. And then he has to compete with everyone else to sell Bitcoins at above fair market value to people who think the rise is real as the market quickly falls.

So long as there people who are anywhere close to equal to him in size in total, he will lose money every time he tries to manipulate the market. He can make Bitcoins unstable, but it will cost him to do it. People who have learned this lesson the hard way include Nelson Bunker Hunt and Allan A. Ryan.

[VelvetLeaf]

btw, where's the confirmation that he controls 500k BTC?

[2012-08-17 16:15:10] <boonies4u> pirateat40: will you be daytrading with your own funds after this?
[2012-08-17 16:16:15] <pirateat40> boonies4u, Yes I hold personally over 30k BTC
[2012-08-17 16:16:45] <Azelphur> pirateat40: is that your personal or the total funds of BS&T?
[2012-08-17 16:17:57] <pirateat40> Azelphur, personally.  BST is over 500k BTC

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101339.msg1111794#msg1111794

[Piper67]

It will cost him money because he will have to bear all the costs of manipulating the market himself and he will have to share the profits with anyone who chooses to follow along for the ride.

While he's pushing the price down to induce a panic sell, others are buying his Bitcoins for less than they are worth medium-term.  And then he has to compete with everyone else to buy any Bitcoins that are sold in panic as the market quickly rises.

While he's pushing the price up to sell above fair market value, others are selling him Bitcoins for more than they are worth medium-term. And then he has to compete with everyone else to sell Bitcoins at above fair market value to people who think the rise is real as the market quickly falls.

So long as there people who are anywhere close to equal to him in size in total, he will lose money every time he tries to manipulate the market. He can make Bitcoins unstable, but it will cost him to do it. People who have learned this lesson the hard way include Nelson Bunker Hunt and Allan A. Ryan.

This, as usual. Assuming pirate was behind the dump last weekend, the only thing that prevented him from losing a lot of money in the process was the lack of fiat in the exchanges because it was the weekend. It was a gamble, and only he/she knows whether it paid off. But he/she will only be able to get away with it once. I'm pretty sure there will be plenty of fiat on hand in the exchanges this weekend hoping he tries again.

[fornit]

btw, where's the confirmation that he controls 500k BTC?

[2012-08-17 16:15:10] <boonies4u> pirateat40: will you be daytrading with your own funds after this?
[2012-08-17 16:16:15] <pirateat40> boonies4u, Yes I hold personally over 30k BTC
[2012-08-17 16:16:45] <Azelphur> pirateat40: is that your personal or the total funds of BS&T?
[2012-08-17 16:17:57] <pirateat40> Azelphur, personally.  BST is over 500k BTC

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101339.msg1111794#msg1111794

lol, made my day 

[the_thing]

btw, where's the confirmation that he controls 500k BTC?

[2012-08-17 16:15:10] <boonies4u> pirateat40: will you be daytrading with your own funds after this?
[2012-08-17 16:16:15] <pirateat40> boonies4u, Yes I hold personally over 30k BTC
[2012-08-17 16:16:45] <Azelphur> pirateat40: is that your personal or the total funds of BS&T?
[2012-08-17 16:17:57] <pirateat40> Azelphur, personally.  BST is over 500k BTC

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101339.msg1111794#msg1111794

Do you really think someone would do that? Just go on the internet and tell lies?

[Mousepotato]

Has anybody even heard from him since last night? You'd think he'd want to keep everybody up to date with current events to keep people at ease.

[Nefario]

If he runs we're going to find out how quickly he can be found with a 500K BTC price tag on his head, and when he is, will he still have the head?

[BadBear]

If it can be killed someone will do it eventually, so might as well be now, we'll be better off. If not it will just prove that it's stronger than people think.

Do you really think someone would do that? Just go on the internet and tell lies?

Oh god I laughed so hard. Everybody lies, even in real life.

[Nefario]

Oh god I laughed so hard. Everybody lies, even in real life.

No they don't.

Just to qualify my previous post, I don't have anything "invested" with pirate40, I was just saying if you steal that kind of money, people tend to kill you.

[dust]

Oh god I laughed so hard. Everybody lies, even in real life.

No they don't.

Just to qualify my previous post, I don't have anything "invested" with pirate40, I was just saying if you steal that kind of money, people tend to kill you.

People who are stealing that kind of money can afford to create an entire fake identity.

[rebuilder]

For bitcoin's sake- I hope Pirate Returns the money, and the community stays away from such "financial innovation" in the future, even if it's not a ponzi.

For bitcoin's sake, I hope Pirate doesn't return the money. Even if he pays out in full, anyone giving Pirate money took a huge risk. If that risk is rewarded, imagine how eager people will be to get in on the next big thing completely indistinguishable from a scam. It can only get worse if he pays out.

[proudhon]

For bitcoin's sake- I hope Pirate Returns the money, and the community stays away from such "financial innovation" in the future, even if it's not a ponzi.

For bitcoin's sake, I hope Pirate doesn't return the money. Even if he pays out in full, anyone giving Pirate money took a huge risk. If that risk is rewarded, imagine how eager people will be to get in on the next big thing completely indistinguishable from a scam. It can only get worse if he pays out.

It's bad either way.  If he returns the money, the market gets flooded and the price plummets again like it did in 2011, and potential bitcoin users are turned off for a long time.  If he doesn't return the money then you've got a thief running around with 500k bitcoins which he could drop at any moment.

[Piper67]

For bitcoin's sake- I hope Pirate Returns the money, and the community stays away from such "financial innovation" in the future, even if it's not a ponzi.

For bitcoin's sake, I hope Pirate doesn't return the money. Even if he pays out in full, anyone giving Pirate money took a huge risk. If that risk is rewarded, imagine how eager people will be to get in on the next big thing completely indistinguishable from a scam. It can only get worse if he pays out.

It's bad either way.  If he returns the money, the market gets flooded and the price plummets again like it did in 2011, and potential bitcoin users are turned off for a long time.  If he doesn't return the money then you've got a thief running around with 500k bitcoins which he could drop at any moment.

We're all talking about 500k BTC in pirate's possession, but do we have any verifiable evidence that this is so, aside from his saying it is? This isn't rhetorical, I really don't know and would love to know if there's a sure fire way of making that determination.