Is bitcoin stabalizing again or will it plummet even further than the weekend?

[Projects]

Just curious to everyones opinion, is the value going to stabalize at around $10 for a while or is it going to crash/rally again in the near future?

[Piper67]

Just curious to everyones opinion, is the value going to stabalize at around $10 for a while or is it going to crash/rally again in the near future?

Yes

[DeathAndTaxes]

Yes.  No.  Maybe.  Both.  Neither.

Game theory time:
If someone actually could predict the market it would be in their best interest to not tell you (trading is a zero sum game).
If someone can't predict the market it would be in their best interest to lie and have you become the counterparty for their trade (allow them to sell for more or buy for less).

[LoweryCBS]

If someone actually could predict the market it would be in their best interest to not tell you (trading is a zero sum game).
If someone can't predict the market it would be in their best interest to lie and have you become the counterparty for their trade (allow them to sell for more or buy for less).

Unless...    That's EXACTLY what they WANT you to think!

                               

[elosk]

Personally, I believe that the market is going to drop even further than it did over the weekend. Maybe it is just that I have good faith, but I believe that Pirate will soon start paying everyone what they are owed. Once that happens, hundreds of thousands of coins will return to the market, many of which will be sold, flooding the market and bringing the prices down.

[VelvetLeaf]

Buyer doesn't even want to touch the buy order at the current price
Seller want to sell at $30 $15 $10, go figure.

[Raize]

These bids are so thin for someone who wants the price to go up so badly. And the walls are so fake. It's pretty clear someone's got a lot to sell right now, IMHO. The price is only increasing so they can get people to line up their bids for the next big sell-off.

[skinturtle]

Personally, I believe that the market is going to drop even further than it did over the weekend. Maybe it is just that I have good faith, but I believe that Pirate will soon start paying everyone what they are owed. Once that happens, hundreds of thousands of coins will return to the market, many of which will be sold, flooding the market and bringing the prices down.

Nah, I believe he's gone with his 500k btc

[blazing]

These bids are so thin for someone who wants the price to go up so badly. And the walls are so fake. It's pretty clear someone's got a lot to sell right now, IMHO. The price is only increasing so they can get people to line up their bids for the next big sell-off.

Agreed. I'm suprised we're still sitting at $10. It's just a matter of time.

[proudhon]

Funny tweet from Enky Nakamura this morning:

It's hard for me to forecast the price range when there's an ignorant investor with 400k bitcoins in the bag,he is like a baby with a gun:)

[jimbobway]

pirate has not paid anyone back yet.  Which means he may be planning another big move to drop prices further.  I'm positioned to buy more bitcoins when this happens.

[Serge]

There are two opposite forces at work:

1. more press in the media, BitInstant's debit card being mentioned everywhere which is going to reflect in more bitcoin appreciation on top of past two weeks of news
2. possibility of pirate returning bitcoins to lenders which will put some excess stock on exchanges driving price down

result: short term volatile uncertainty

[niko]

The price is only increasing so they can get people to line up their bids for the next big sell-off.

As in: it rained today only so I don't have to water the garden?

[Spekulatius]

Yes.  No.  Maybe.  Both.  Neither.

Game theory time:
If someone actually could predict the market it would be in their best interest to not tell you (trading is a zero sum game).
If someone can't predict the market it would be in their best interest to lie and have you become the counterparty for their trade (allow them to sell for more or buy for less).

In this case your logic does not apply because you are dealing with a large group of traders instead of only one. When the majority of traders on the market shares your believe, the market is going your way. This is based on mass psychology and the herd behaviour.

[Technomage]

We just had the biggest news since Silk Road (Bitcoin Mastercard) so I'd say buy while it's still cheap. Price may go down a bit on the short term but I'd say that the combination of the recent news, the September Bitcoin announcement and the block reward halving... going up is a near certainty.

[Spekulatius]

We just had the biggest news since Silk Road (Bitcoin Mastercard) so I'd say buy while it's still cheap. Price may go down a bit on the short term but I'd say that the combination of the recent news, the September Bitcoin announcement and the block reward halving... going up is a near certainty.

I totally agree...after this week has come to an end. With paybacks and 500k BTC (walls?) looming ahead, I wouldnt expect a rise too steep before this week has passed.

[niko]

pirate has not paid anyone back yet.  Which means he may be planning another big move to drop prices further.  I'm positioned to buy more bitcoins when this happens.

Are you going to sell beforehand?

[Elwar]

The price was rising slowly based on more than just the ponzi scheme. There are a lot of advances and the block reward is dropping in half. This means that we are outpacing the 50% inflation at the current rate. When the inflation rate is cut in half and we continue at this rate, that means a 25% increase in value yearly at least.

Pirate dropped about 10k BTC last month and the price dropped from $9 to $8. He dropped 100k BTC over the weekend. It was bound to fall. He can only drop it that much 4 more times.

[sunnankar]

Pirate dropped about 10k BTC last month and the price dropped from $9 to $8. He dropped 100k BTC over the weekend. It was bound to fall. He can only drop it that much 4 more times.

Plus, I think you are underestimating the possibility of there being much deeper pockets that Pirate which kind of enjoy shaking the Bitcoin tree to see if any bitcoins fall out. And from another thread:

I have already started helping some people formulate a USD/gold to Bitcoin carry-trade.

[Technomage]

http://money.cnn.com/2012/08/22/technology/startups/bitcoin-debit-card/index.html

http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=bitcoin%20%2B%20bit%20coin%20%2B%20bitcoins&date=today%203-m&cmpt=q (The latest media wave doesn't even register here yet)

Price will surely plummet.

[VelvetLeaf]

http://money.cnn.com/2012/08/22/technology/startups/bitcoin-debit-card/index.html

http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=bitcoin%20%2B%20bit%20coin%20%2B%20bitcoins&date=today%203-m&cmpt=q (The latest media wave doesn't even register here yet)

Price will surely plummet.

Do you like to buy 1 coca cola if tomorrow you can buy 2 coca cola with the same bitcoin ?

[kjj]

http://money.cnn.com/2012/08/22/technology/startups/bitcoin-debit-card/index.html

http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=bitcoin%20%2B%20bit%20coin%20%2B%20bitcoins&date=today%203-m&cmpt=q (The latest media wave doesn't even register here yet)

Price will surely plummet.

Do you like to buy 1 coca cola if tomorrow you can buy 2 coca cola with the same bitcoin ?

Depends if I'm thirsty today or tomorrow.

[VelvetLeaf]

Depends if I'm thirsty today or tomorrow.

Still more profitable to buy using fiat now and keep your bitcoin for the next bubbles.

[Technomage]

I'm not sure who is leveling whom but I was kidding about the plummeting.

[VelvetLeaf]

I'm just saying that it's more profitable to keep bitcoins and using fiat from your salary to buy stuff.
Sell bitcoin during the next bubbles for profit, don't even use it for anything (including, bitinstant credit card).
I think that's how most people think.

In short words, the appearance of bitinstant credit card won't have any effect at all because people won't touch it.

[Technomage]

I'm just saying that it's more profitable to keep bitcoins and using fiat from your salary to buy stuff.
Sell bitcoin during the next bubbles for profit, don't even use it for anything (including, bitinstant credit card).
I think that's how most people think.

In short words, the appearance of bitinstant credit card won't have any effect at all because people won't touch it.

I think that makes no sense. Everyone in the Bitcoin world will use this card. It's amazing. Why would anyone exchange their bitcoins to fiat any other way than this card? It's more convenient than anything and the fees are competitive to any other method of cashing out bitcoins.

I never sell all of my bitcoins because I'm in it for the very long term but I occasionally sell some to limit my risk or if I just need fiat. This card is the perfect method for exchanging bitcoins to fiat. I simply deposit the bitcoins to this card and use the card for all my purchases until I've "cashed out" the amount I wanted to cash out.

That card, if they can deliver it with the fees they promise, is a complete game changer. It will actually change the entire dynamic of the btc/fiat exchange. BitInstant will be the biggest seller in the entire market and everyone else just uses the card to exchange from BTC to fiat.

Not everyone will of course, but a lot of people will. With those fees, that is guaranteed. People who require high anonymity will not touch these cards though so they will not use them regardless of the fees.

[Carlton Banks]

Forgive me if this has already been speculated elsewhere, but has anyone considered the possibility of pirate sending large numbers of coins to invalid addresses to cause maximum carnage?

It seems to me this is the ultimate market disruption option available to the motivated bitcoin anarchist. Does pirate actually have the balls to make that his big reveal? Depending on how many coins he trashed, the current definitions of price volatility, even by bitcoin standards, would have to be quickly re-written.

Buy at $2.50, sell at $75 maybe? I am totally stumped, it has to be said

[kjj]

Depends if I'm thirsty today or tomorrow.

Still more profitable to buy using fiat now and keep your bitcoin for the next bubbles.

Probably true.  But I find that using bitcoin is WAY more convenient for some things.  I hold on to the bulk of my mining income under the assumption that bitcoin will be huge some day, but I spend some here and there, and I don't worry about how much I could have sold those coins for if I'd held them until the right time.

[Bitcoin Oz]

I'm just saying that it's more profitable to keep bitcoins and using fiat from your salary to buy stuff.
Sell bitcoin during the next bubbles for profit, don't even use it for anything (including, bitinstant credit card).
I think that's how most people think.

In short words, the appearance of bitinstant credit card won't have any effect at all because people won't touch it.

I think that makes no sense. Everyone in the Bitcoin world will use this card. It's amazing. Why would anyone exchange their bitcoins to fiat any other way than this card? It's more convenient than anything and the fees are competitive to any other method of cashing out bitcoins.

I never sell all of my bitcoins because I'm in it for the very long term but I occasionally sell some to limit my risk or if I just need fiat. This card is the perfect method for exchanging bitcoins to fiat. I simply deposit the bitcoins to this card and use the card for all my purchases until I've "cashed out" the amount I wanted to cash out.

That card, if they can deliver it with the fees they promise, is a complete game changer. It will actually change the entire dynamic of the btc/fiat exchange. BitInstant will be the biggest seller in the entire market and everyone else just uses the card to exchange from BTC to fiat.

Not everyone will of course, but a lot of people will. With those fees, that is guaranteed. People who require high anonymity will not touch these cards though so they will not use them regardless of the fees.

I look forward to bitinstant being the first company to IPO on the NYSE or similar stock exchange.

[Technomage]

Probably true.  But I find that using bitcoin is WAY more convenient for some things.  I hold on to the bulk of my mining income under the assumption that bitcoin will be huge some day, but I spend some here and there, and I don't worry about how much I could have sold those coins for if I'd held them until the right time.

This is how most people think and that is to be expected. Bitcoin is, and always will be, a value preserving savings currency. It is designed that way. This means that people will simply hold significant amounts of bitcoins. However, it doesn't mean they don't use them at all. This is the big fallacy that some people have. Bitcoin is great as a medium of exchange as well, it's a really convenient method of sending money and enables very low cost transactions of all sizes. It's the super combination of gold and cash, in digital form.

[Vladimir]

Probably true.  But I find that using bitcoin is WAY more convenient for some things.  I hold on to the bulk of my mining income under the assumption that bitcoin will be huge some day, but I spend some here and there, and I don't worry about how much I could have sold those coins for if I'd held them until the right time.

This is how most people think and that is to be expected. Bitcoin is, and always will be, a value preserving savings currency. It is designed that way. This means that people will hold significant amounts of bitcoins. However, it doesn't mean they don't use them at all. This is the big fallacy that some people have. Bitcoin is great as a medium of exchange as well, it's really convenient and allows low cost transactions of all sizes. It's the super combination of gold and cash, in digital form.

Perfect money ha? just need wide acceptance to get there and plugging into existing networks as in BTC denominated debit card is half way there.

[VelvetLeaf]

I think that makes no sense. Everyone in the Bitcoin world will use this card. It's amazing. Why would anyone exchange their bitcoins to fiat any other way than this card? It's more convenient than anything and the fees are competitive to any other method of cashing out bitcoins.

I never sell all of my bitcoins because I'm in it for the very long term but I occasionally sell some to limit my risk or if I just need fiat. This card is the perfect method for exchanging bitcoins to fiat. I simply deposit the bitcoins to this card and use the card for all my purchases until I've "cashed out" the amount I wanted to cash out.

That card, if they can deliver it with the fees they promise, is a complete game changer. It will actually change the entire dynamic of the btc/fiat exchange. BitInstant will be the biggest seller in the entire market and everyone else just uses the card to exchange from BTC to fiat.

Not everyone will of course, but a lot of people will. With those fees, that is guaranteed. People who require high anonymity will not touch these cards though so they will not use them regardless of the fees.

Basically, it'll be used as a way to withdraw fiat, with lower fees and not for buying things.
Pretty good concept for people that want the fiat instantly without having to deal with multiple third parties.

[Technomage]

Perfect money ha? just need wide acceptance to get there and plugging into existing networks as in BTC denominated debit card is half way there.

I wouldn't say perfect but it's as close to perfect as humanity has been able to achieve thus far. I agree that this debit card is an important step towards the next level of Bitcoin usage.

[Technomage]

Basically, it'll be used as a way to withdraw fiat, with lower fees and not for buying things.
Pretty good concept for people that want the fiat instantly without having to deal with multiple third parties.

It will be cheaper to use this card for payments directly rather than withdrawing cash from an ATM. So for many of us this card will certainly be used for buying things. I personally think that cash is quite inconvenient and I have no interest in withdrawing cash with this card. Some people will certainly use it that way though.

[kjj]

Basically, it'll be used as a way to withdraw fiat, with lower fees and not for buying things.
Pretty good concept for people that want the fiat instantly without having to deal with multiple third parties.

It will be cheaper to use this card for payments directly rather than withdrawing cash from an ATM. So for many of us this card will certainly be used for buying things. I personally think that cash is quite inconvenient and I have no interest in withdrawing cash with this card. Some people will certainly use it that way though.

I'm seriously looking into setting up linkages to feed money into mtgox now.  I earn a little cash back on the credit card that I use for most of my daily expenses, but I might be willing to flip that around and pay small fees by routing a portion of my monthly expenses through the card.

It sounds like other people are thinking the same thing, and I hope that the extra volume would help stabilize the markets.

"Bank -> credit card" vs "Bank -> bitcoin -> credit card" doesn't matter much to me, and one of those options has a good chance of making my investment in bitcoin more valuable.

[humanitee]

There's a story on /r/bitcoin saying that Mastercard declined.

http://www.techweekeurope.co.uk/news/no-bitcoin-credit-card-planned-90058

[Technomage]

There's a story on /r/bitcoin saying that Mastercard declined.

http://www.techweekeurope.co.uk/news/no-bitcoin-credit-card-planned-90058

It's an interesting development. However, I assumed that BitInstant doesn't work with Mastercard directly anyway. They work with the banks that work with Mastercard. This is not a big surprise. Also Mastercard didn't say they are against this, they simply said they are unaware of the whole project.

[humanitee]

You're probably right. I'm waiting for Charlie to swoop in and drop some knowledge.

I would be surprised if Bitinstant was hyping something that would be dismantled. They are my favorite company in the Bitcoin world atm.

[fx1Trader]

and here is bitinstant statement on its blog
http://blog.bitinstant.com/blog/2012/8/22/public-statement-regarding-the-bitinstant-paycard.html

[notme]

http://money.cnn.com/2012/08/22/technology/startups/bitcoin-debit-card/index.html

http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=bitcoin%20%2B%20bit%20coin%20%2B%20bitcoins&date=today%203-m&cmpt=q (The latest media wave doesn't even register here yet)

Price will surely plummet.

Darn you google!  Take away my flash from Android Jelly Bean, but still use it on insights .

[Carlton Banks]

Forgive me if this has already been speculated elsewhere, but has anyone considered the possibility of pirate sending large numbers of coins to invalid addresses to cause maximum carnage?

the rest of the existing coins will be worth more, so the only people losing would be Pirate and his investors.

Hmmm, it depends how many he trashes, the rate he does it, the lies he tells about who's really trashing the coins, the nature and timing of the roguish taunting he accompanies the little waves of coin genocides with etc

I mean, I realise the remaining coinbase following a 400 000 BTC flushing would be worth more in the end. In the end. I wouldn't expect a sudden clean jump in value corresponding to the proportion by which the coin supply had reduced, for instance. Sell at $1, 000, 000?

[notme]

Forgive me if this has already been speculated elsewhere, but has anyone considered the possibility of pirate sending large numbers of coins to invalid addresses to cause maximum carnage?

the rest of the existing coins will be worth more, so the only people losing would be Pirate and his investors.

Hmmm, it depends how many he trashes, the rate he does it, the lies he tells about who's really trashing the coins, the nature and timing of the roguish taunting he accompanies the little waves of coin genocides with etc

I mean, I realise the remaining coinbase following a 400 000 BTC flushing would be worth more in the end. In the end. I wouldn't expect a sudden clean jump in value corresponding to the proportion by which the coin supply had reduced, for instance. Sell at $1, 000, 000?

Why the hell would anybody burn that much (nonfiat) money?