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亚投行建立初期需要注意的一件事
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BTC-zhanjiang
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亚投行建立初期需要注意的一件事
April 13, 2015, 09:37:24 AM
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美国总统特使访问中国,旨在讨论美国加入亚洲基础设施投资银行的问题。但是,正如人们所看到的那样,美国总统特使无功而返。之所以会出现这种情况,是因为亚投行的创始会员国已经确立了亚投行的基本规则,如果美国强人所难,试图在亚投行享有支配地位,那么,就意味着亚投行的所有规划必须推倒重来,这是中国所不能答应的,也是其他创始会员国所无法容忍的。
亚投行决定改变不合理的国际金融秩序,建立平等但有差别的权利义务体系,强调亚投行为亚洲基础设施建设服务,不仅有明确的服务目标,而且承诺建立更加公平的决策机制和治理机构,这就使得美国乃至其他西方国家看到了亚投行潜在的竞争力。
改变不合理的国际金融秩序不可能一蹴而就。亚投行的设立,只不过是发展中国家改变不合理国际金融秩序的一次尝试而已。亚投行要想发挥自己的作用,还必须与美国主导的国际金融组织合作,因此,从短期来看,世界金融秩序不会发生根本性的改变。
需要特别注意的是,一些经济学者分析认为,亚投行所面临的最大问题就在于,如何形成可持续的盈利模式。正如人们所知道的,亚投行虽然吸收资本金,但是,要想开展大规模的投资活动,必须借助于国际金融市场筹集更多的资金。换句话说,亚投行必须和商业银行一样具有足够的竞争力,在国际金融市场上筹集更多的资金用于亚洲基础设施建设。坦率地说,这是一项非常艰巨的任务。基础设施建设投资规模较大,回收的周期相对较长,如果在资本运作的过程中资金成本过大,或者在基础设施建设的过程中出现了胡子工程,那么,亚投行将会出现巨大的呆账和坏账。从这个角度来说,亚投行既要广结善缘,筹措资金,同时又要加强项目管理,确保亚投行的投资项目得到应有的回报。
笔者曾经参与过世界银行基础设施建设项目的招标投标监督工作,发现世界银行在招标投标的过程中,往往采取简单的低价中标原则,这就使得一些中国企业利用低价中标、在工程施工过程中提高报价的经营策略彻底失灵。为了防止世界银行贷款项目变成“烂尾工程”,世界银行往往选择地方政府的基础设施项目作为服务的对象,并且要求地方政府以财政作担保,这样做既可以在政治上确保世界银行贷款项目顺利进行,同时又可以确保在经济上得到应有的回报。
亚投行投资的地区政局不稳定,一些国家的财政规模相对较小,如何在政治混乱的地区开展大规模的基础设施建设,并且确保投入的资金得到应有的回报,这是亚投行必须考虑的问题。假如亚投行的投资项目最终都变成了无偿援助项目,那么,亚投行将难以为继。所以,在亚投行建立的初期,就应该考虑投入产出的问题。绝对不能等到问题发生之后,再来调整规则,因为那样做将会导致亚投行内部发生分裂,发展中国家的矛盾不断加剧。
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