elosk
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August 21, 2012, 08:47:00 PM |
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But it isn't done yet. Pirate hasn't paid everyone back yet. If he does, it will most likely result in a flooding of the market which will drop the price. If he runs off, the market will rally as everyone who invested with him tries to get back into the game.
That seems like a fairly baseless assumption to me. How so? If people get their coins back, do you not think that many of them will sell to try and get out? But it isn't done yet. Pirate hasn't paid everyone back yet. If he does, it will most likely result in a flooding of the market which will drop the price. If he runs off, the market will rally as everyone who invested with him tries to get back into the game.
Meh, price will go down either way. Why do you think it will go down if he runs off? Loss of confidence, hampering the bubble we had. I think the value without megabulls is below $10. While some may lose confidence, I think there is a fair sized group of people that will want to make back what they lost. Also, jwzguy, while yes, there are many who are people like you who are investing because of a loss of confidence in fiat, there are others who invested purely to make a profit. Since they will have made significant profits thanks to Pirate, I think that many of them will want to get out of this somewhat volatile market so that they don't risk losing these profits. |
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Faraday
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August 21, 2012, 08:51:07 PM |
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Because the only reason they bought the bitcoins was to invest for the interest rates? (I'm not saying all pirate investors were like this, but some must have been.)
Why would anyone think it was the majority. You're not invested in Bitcoin but you decided to take the leap because of an extremely risky HYIP opportunity? I would think that's almost no one. More like you're invested in bitcoin already & find this opportunity which you like so decide to invest in even more bitcoins. Opportunity is now gone so you sell off the extra bitcoins. Or you had wanted to sell off bitcoins but didn't because they were earning good interest in this scheme of pirates, but now its over you sell them. Mind you if the current price is low people might decide to keep them for now. Seeing as the price hit $15 recently it might be hard to sell for half that. |
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jwzguy
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August 21, 2012, 08:51:29 PM |
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Also, jwzguy, while yes, there are many who are people like you who are investing because of a loss of confidence in fiat, there are others who invested purely to make a profit. Since they will have made significant profits thanks to Pirate, I think that many of them will want to get out of this somewhat volatile market so that they don't risk losing these profits.
The thing I find untenable about this scenario is that you've got people who you're saying -weren't- interested in investing in Bitcoin (because otherwise they would just leave profits in BTC) who want to get out. Bitcoin is already seen as a very risky investment by many many people. It takes a lot of time and research to understand the merits and gain confidence. So these people are going to jump into who aren't BTC people are now not only going to dump their money into BTC, but also a HYIP? I don't buy it. Again - sure, maybe a handful exist, but to say that it would be enough to crash the market seems like a very wild and unsupported leap. |
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jwzguy
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August 21, 2012, 08:55:15 PM |
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Because the only reason they bought the bitcoins was to invest for the interest rates? (I'm not saying all pirate investors were like this, but some must have been.)
Why would anyone think it was the majority. You're not invested in Bitcoin but you decided to take the leap because of an extremely risky HYIP opportunity? I would think that's almost no one. More like you're invested in bitcoin already & find this opportunity which you like so decide to invest in even more bitcoins. Opportunity is now gone so you sell off the extra bitcoins. Or you had wanted to sell off bitcoins but didn't because they were earning good interest in this scheme of pirates, but now its over you sell them. Mind you if the current price is low people might decide to keep them for now. Seeing as the price hit $15 recently it might be hard to sell for half that. This is a much more reasonable stance (also one that's completely different from what people are saying) and it doesn't point to a market crash. People are always selling what they can't afford to keep invested. And I completely agree, why panic-sell at 10 when we just hit 15? I don't think there's anything to worry about unless everyone is jumping to wrong conclusion at the same time - in that case, yes, I'm worried. But hopefully people are smarter than that. Either way, I think it will at worst just be a bump in the road, and I won't be selling a single bitcent. |
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CoinDiver
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August 21, 2012, 09:20:38 PM |
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You assume people (as a mass, not as individuals) are sane. You will have a long line of people getting huge chunks of coin, one after another. If 1% of the BS&T refunds get sold off, prices will drop. If someone was to sell theirs before that, and buy theirs back after that, they would benefit from the drop in the middle. All it takes is on large sell... and everyone goes "oh crap, it's starting... SELL SELL SELL!"...
As long as people don't lose faith in the currency, it's all a temporary flux.
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sippsnapp
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August 21, 2012, 11:06:45 PM |
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Im slightly remembered on the flash crash The May 6, 2010 Flash Crash[1] also known as The Crash of 2:45, the 2010 Flash Crash or just simply, the Flash Crash, was a United States stock market crash on Thursday May 6, 2010 in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged about 1000 points—or about nine percent—only to recover those losses within minutes. It was the second largest point swing, 1,010.14 points, and the biggest one-day point decline, 998.5 points, on an intraday basis in Dow Jones Industrial Average history.[2][3][4] At this time i was trading currencies very heavily, i say its similar because you could smell something is going to happen back then, i was awake like 2 days and fell asleep while it happened, lol. So it was here, suddenly people started talking about some mysterious fund that will be payd out, there the market already was tanking. On the flashcrash people where confused for a few days too. |
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ydenys
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August 22, 2012, 12:04:32 AM |
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Okay, last weekend’s panic selling had happened. Lessons are learned. This weekend people should have enough cash on exchanges to hold $5 even if all of the leftovers of this so-called ‘fund’ are smartly used. Greed and panic work both ways – this is a huge gamble for pirate and he may be left with nothing. Most likely he will first, while he still can, pay back select few high-investing idiots to help him to crash the market (and most importantly get him off the hook), then depending on how well the next wave of p&d goes he may actually be able to repay all. My opinion - his chance has gone and it is no longer possible to cause an avalanche significant enough, while the rally back is oh-so-possible. Other people are now aware that he may attempt to do it and he simply no longer has enough funds. I would guess pirate is carefully choosing if/to whom to return their funds depending on what he can do to avoid the consequences.
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ydenys
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August 22, 2012, 12:08:33 AM |
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Also the time limits pirate has given himself were just plain silly. Best would have been to go off the radar missing the dividends payout, work the market, then ‘get better’, pay everyone double, get more funds in, work the market, announce some gratifying circumstances and stop taking deposits, work the market, announce retirement and another ‘manager’, new better terms, work the market, then start again from ‘going off the radar’. The people seem gullible enough  |
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sippsnapp
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August 22, 2012, 12:09:54 AM |
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Seriously, he will return all or nothing (maybe to some close friends/buddies).
IF his plan is/was to buy back in on a cheaper price, well, it could be tricky.
Its still very interesting ~:)
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augustocroppo
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August 22, 2012, 12:57:43 AM |
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