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Author Topic: Bitcoin is not a bubble  (Read 2519 times)
jeromanomic
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April 14, 2015, 07:04:46 AM
 #1

A different look at the Bitcoin market:
http://www.finance-guy.net/finblog/bitcoin-not-a-bubble

it's not a very positive opinion, but I agree that something needs to be done to attract the general masses to use Bitcoin.  Something needs to make BTC more attractive than cash for everyday people.

What kind of incentives do you think would work for the people you know?
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April 14, 2015, 07:29:53 AM
 #2

For me, the biggest incentive is understanding that governments around the world are getting financed at negative rates, still have deficits and big debts. Add on top of that, their compromise with future pensions that are not included in debt calculations.

Central banks have the biggest balance sheets ever, which it means that in order to increase interest rates they will have to sell more bonds than ever, putting additional pressure on the stability of public finance.

If you can grasp all that, Bitcoin comes as the natural solution.

A bank-only system is similar to having your Bitcoin wallet confined to your national ID, essentially forfeiting your privacy and handing all private keys to the government
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April 14, 2015, 07:36:48 AM
 #3

people around the world are not adopting bitcoin because of those thing in general

1- security
2- regulation

those two thing must be addressed in order to rise the adoption of bitcoin

the secuirty can be done by the exchage(so it's not even a bitcoin fault)

the regulation is on the way on some countries, but need to be speeded up and should be easy for average people, not something like "i need to take note of every transactions" or other things too laborious
jeromanomic
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April 14, 2015, 07:40:13 AM
 #4


Central banks have the biggest balance sheets ever, which it means that in order to increase interest rates they will have to sell more bonds than ever, putting additional pressure on the stability of public finance.


Can you explain this bit.  If they are getting more interest from the money people borrow from them, why do they need to sell more bonds?
RaginglikeaBoss
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April 14, 2015, 07:46:25 AM
 #5

When you see interest rates barely above 0%, that's an indicator of the Federal Reserve trying to help jump-start growth.

Problem is they can only do this for so long because the entire time they are lending out money so cheaply, they also gain debt.  But, depending on your viewpoint of Keynesian economics, this debt can almost be written off due to the increase in U.S. currency injected into the economy thru these low interest loans.  The increase in supply of the currency also helps negate effects of deflation and lets the currency devalue itself in order to be more competitive as an investment.  Quantitative easing in a nutshell.

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April 14, 2015, 07:57:41 AM
 #6

For me, the biggest incentive is understanding that governments around the world are getting financed at negative rates, still have deficits and big debts. Add on top of that, their compromise with future pensions that are not included in debt calculations.

Central banks have the biggest balance sheets ever, which it means that in order to increase interest rates they will have to sell more bonds than ever, putting additional pressure on the stability of public finance.

If you can grasp all that, Bitcoin comes as the natural solution.
When economy and society stabilize, business activities and industrial production is increasing, the masses will ignore the underlying problem created by the centralized govs. Do you still remember the economic turmoil in 2013, and the performance of bitcoin?  But I think when the next economic crisis is approaching, ppl will realize the importance of the bitcoin. The adoption rate will be accelerated a lot.   

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April 14, 2015, 08:11:35 AM
 #7


Central banks have the biggest balance sheets ever, which it means that in order to increase interest rates they will have to sell more bonds than ever, putting additional pressure on the stability of public finance.


Can you explain this bit.  If they are getting more interest from the money people borrow from them, why do they need to sell more bonds?

Interest rates in the US and Europe is near 0%. To raise interest rates, central banks need to make money more expensive. To make money more expensive they need to make it more scarce. To make it more scarce the central bank needs to sell the assets in its balance sheet and "sequester" the money of those sales.

The balance sheet of central banks are especially high because we come from a debt-shock crisis which is ultimately deflationary, and because of the Dodd-Frank and Basel III regulations.

A bank-only system is similar to having your Bitcoin wallet confined to your national ID, essentially forfeiting your privacy and handing all private keys to the government
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April 14, 2015, 08:12:44 AM
 #8

A different look at the Bitcoin market:
http://www.finance-guy.net/finblog/bitcoin-not-a-bubble

it's not a very positive opinion, but I agree that something needs to be done to attract the general masses to use Bitcoin.  Something needs to make BTC more attractive than cash for everyday people.

What kind of incentives do you think would work for the people you know?

The biggest problem what I think is that this currency doesn't have any legal backing from any Government department of from any country and that is one of the main problem because of which people are afraid to deal in Bitcoin. The second reason could be the less awareness among the general public who usually deal in normal currency. What do you think?

johnyj
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April 14, 2015, 01:07:34 PM
 #9

A different look at the Bitcoin market:
http://www.finance-guy.net/finblog/bitcoin-not-a-bubble

it's not a very positive opinion, but I agree that something needs to be done to attract the general masses to use Bitcoin.  Something needs to make BTC more attractive than cash for everyday people.

What kind of incentives do you think would work for the people you know?

At current stage, I don't think average people will help to improve the bitcoin, majority of people just blindly follow the leaders

All it takes is a couple of whales drive another wave of rally and send exchange rate to 10k+ level. It does not require lots of money and it is easy to do with current low liquidity on the exchanges, they just need to control enough coins before they start. And the best time to start the show is the next reward halving, or when a large brake through in mining technology hit


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April 14, 2015, 01:20:01 PM
 #10

A different look at the Bitcoin market:
http://www.finance-guy.net/finblog/bitcoin-not-a-bubble

it's not a very positive opinion, but I agree that something needs to be done to attract the general masses to use Bitcoin.  Something needs to make BTC more attractive than cash for everyday people.

What kind of incentives do you think would work for the people you know?

It's very VERY simple. ATM the bitcoin infrastructure is becoming more and more like the fiat system, profit is everything. The founders, big whales and all people with alot of bitcoin need to come together and start donating a fai amount of btc to non-users, it's the money off us all, yet if some-one wants to step in into bitcoin, they experience alot off walls. It seems to be a rich mans game now, which was never the intent, someone needs to start spreading bitcoin to the masses, by simple donating it!

BillyBobZorton
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April 14, 2015, 03:12:36 PM
 #11

people around the world are not adopting bitcoin because of those thing in general

1- security
2- regulation

those two thing must be addressed in order to rise the adoption of bitcoin

the secuirty can be done by the exchage(so it's not even a bitcoin fault)

the regulation is on the way on some countries, but need to be speeded up and should be easy for average people, not something like "i need to take note of every transactions" or other things too laborious

Bitcoin is as secure as it gets, the problem is people it seems is too dumb to be their own banks ( the general public). Xapo is a good solution for this.

Regulation, it will happen and will being with the Winlevii ETF.
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April 14, 2015, 04:27:15 PM
 #12

bitcoin isnt a bubble, but some people are stating its acting more looking like a subprime bubble.

how investors get left with nothing, and the valuation is all based on emotions? I saw the thread like yesterday? the op had some good points, but I feel like its a yes and no.

I personally think, its a temporary bubble, and once it has some etf moves thats where things will get interesting in my view since gold has a etf as well.
ashour
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April 14, 2015, 06:02:57 PM
 #13

Bitcoin needs to be adopted and implemented into  popular services/apps/websites to get more popular. Bitcoin also lacks in marketing and advertising, more bitcoin advertisements will help bitcoin go mainstream. More applications and services will be powered with the bitcoin protocol . It just needs more time and you will see that bitcoin will get mainstream.

BobK71
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April 14, 2015, 07:55:49 PM
 #14

It really doesn't make sense to evaluate the future of a totally new monetary system on less than 2 years of price performance.

Bitcoin is really the new gold.  How many times in human history does something like gold or silver get discovered?  That is the timespan we should be using.

It should be a matter of time before most investors figure this out.
JayCoDon
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April 14, 2015, 08:01:16 PM
 #15

I would argue that there have been instances when bitcoin behaved in a bubble like fashion, the same as many assets sometimes do. But that doesn't mean that, while the price of bitcoin gets inflated tremendously, there's not awesome technological advances that might one day support that price. Yesterday's bubble is tomorrow's undervaluation. Think about it ... $1,100 a coin may have been a bubble, but when there are double the users, is it that weird to imagine $1,000 as a price? Suddenly it's not a bubble.
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April 14, 2015, 09:43:51 PM
 #16

Quote
In the time that we have been watching Bitcoin, the BTC/USD price has bounced around the average like a grasshopper on steroids, while the average price has fallen from $650 to $250, a fall of over 60%.

Then you haven't been watching it long enough.

Quote
it's been associated with criminals.


Just like fiat but nobody writes stupid articles saying "Dollar has yet again survived after being used to buy drugs, guns and sex" "Dollar associated with Colombian mafia after 20 million was fund in a house along with guns and drugs"

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Sithara007
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April 15, 2015, 05:44:10 AM
 #17

people around the world are not adopting bitcoin because of those thing in general

1- security
2- regulation

those two thing must be addressed in order to rise the adoption of bitcoin

the secuirty can be done by the exchage(so it's not even a bitcoin fault)

the regulation is on the way on some countries, but need to be speeded up and should be easy for average people, not something like "i need to take note of every transactions" or other things too laborious


Now, the question is who will take the burden to regulate Bitcoin. That will hell of a responsiblity because it's known that Bitcoin has security concern. There are illegal trades happening all over the world and the payment is happening in Bitcoins.

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April 15, 2015, 06:04:52 AM
 #18

people around the world are not adopting bitcoin because of those thing in general

1- security
2- regulation

those two thing must be addressed in order to rise the adoption of bitcoin

the secuirty can be done by the exchage(so it's not even a bitcoin fault)

the regulation is on the way on some countries, but need to be speeded up and should be easy for average people, not something like "i need to take note of every transactions" or other things too laborious


Now, the question is who will take the burden to regulate Bitcoin. That will hell of a responsiblity because it's known that Bitcoin has security concern. There are illegal trades happening all over the world and the payment is happening in Bitcoins.

Again with this non-argument, fiat and CASH is mostly used for criminal activitities, bitcoin is a small fraction of that, it's just not an valid argument...

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April 15, 2015, 06:23:19 AM
 #19

A simple answer is marketing and maturity.

When a huge corporation officially backs Bitcoin and publicly makes it obvious that Bitcoin is a big player (for example, placing a Bitcoin symbol or "Bitcoin accepted here" banner on the main site or checkout area), I have no doubt it will become way more publicized and used than it is now. I'm annoyed by companies saying they support Bitcoin, but it ends up being something that's just left hidden someplace that no one can seem to find. Just look at sites like Newegg (I think they support Bitcoin? I'm not even sure. Maybe, it was just allowed once at a promotion.). If only they place the Bitcoin amount along with the USD, just imagine the amount of interest generated for Bitcoin. People will then find out through their research or through other people including friends and family who did their research or got their info somewhere else that there are a load of benefits to using Bitcoin. Three particular attractive benefits are instant transactions, very low fees, and immediate and easy usage.

For most people, Bitcoin is interesting, but it's boring, and no one really cares for it. People are comfortable already using cash and their credit cards. Why would they even consider this when they are already happy using what they already have? The way to break this mindset is to make it the next hip thing. That means famous youtubers and large companies promoting it as well as respected and known writers/columnists writing big and continuous stories for it. By doing this, people will begin to recognize and accept the benefits it provides over fiat money.

Bitcoin shows that it is not yet mature enough. It seems most people who hear of Bitcoin read stories about how someone hacked and stole a large amount of Bitcoin that is worth thousands of dollars. People don't yet trust it because it hasn't been around long enough and hasn't really been seriously supported by big players. Everyone is comfortable using fiat money because they have been exposed to it their entire lives. They trust it and feel comfortable around it. National currencies have been around for generations. It's their way of life.
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April 15, 2015, 07:05:48 AM
 #20

people around the world are not adopting bitcoin because of those thing in general

1- security
2- regulation

those two thing must be addressed in order to rise the adoption of bitcoin

the secuirty can be done by the exchage(so it's not even a bitcoin fault)

the regulation is on the way on some countries, but need to be speeded up and should be easy for average people, not something like "i need to take note of every transactions" or other things too laborious


Now, the question is who will take the burden to regulate Bitcoin. That will hell of a responsiblity because it's known that Bitcoin has security concern. There are illegal trades happening all over the world and the payment is happening in Bitcoins.

Again with this non-argument, fiat and CASH is mostly used for criminal activitities, bitcoin is a small fraction of that, it's just not an valid argument...

and they are more anon too, because they can be falsificated easily than bitcoin(if we take in consideration a double spend for falsification)

if you are wondering what falsification has to do with anon, i'll explain

some criminal can trade false usd for real gbp or other currency, then converting those locally, and no one will know about that

with bitcoin you can't do such thing without double spending(which as i said above is kinda like falsification)
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