100BTC bet on pirate default against RoloTonyBrownTown

[sadpandatech]

If I win, I'll buy everyone popcorn. If not, can I have some popcorn guys?

haha, if you don't win, you're gonna be asking Vlad to buy your beers for the next decade. ;p

oh, and @thread Test Your Might

Nah, I don't drink. Ironically, the reason is because I like to keep a clear head all the time and as in touch with reality is possible. (Did I make you laugh?  )

well, that explains it then. All those spare brain cells are driving you mad. I have the same affliction. I always tell my m8's I'm 'high on life' ;p They think I'm a nutter....

[1715187217]

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[1715187217]

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[1715187217]

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[1715187217]

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[RoloTonyBrownTown]

Damn, I'm really tempted to throw a couple hundred btc at this...

Do that here:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101751.500

I'm maxed out  

[vite]

so your actually betting 101 btc (escrow fee included) to win 100 plus 99 btc back?

[RoloTonyBrownTown]

so your actually betting 101 btc (escrow fee included) to win 100 plus 99 btc back?

We've both bet 100.  2BTC is Theymos' fee.  The winner gets 200BTC.  The loser gets zip.

[Matthew N. Wright]

so your actually betting 101 btc (escrow fee included) to win 100 plus 99 btc back?

We've both bet 100.  2BTC is Theymos' fee.  The winner gets 200BTC.  The loser gets zip.

Hopefully not Zip.A. (Too soon?)

[muyuu]

This is the way it should be done.

[nimda]

For the suspicious, theymos' signature checks out.

Code:

gpg: Good signature from "Michael Marquardt <michael_m+pgp@mm.st>"
gpg:                 aka "theymos <theymos+pgp@mm.st>"

Also, I love the comment about bitlane.

[RoloTonyBrownTown]

Also, I love the comment about bitlane.

[dooglus]

Seems to me this isn't really even money (in dollars), in that if Pirate pays out, there will be a flood of people selling their proceeds, pushing the price of BTC down.  So dust either wins a lot or loses a little?

[Matthew N. Wright]

Seems to me this isn't really even money (in dollars), in that if Pirate pays out, there will be a flood of people selling their proceeds, pushing the price of BTC down.  So dust either wins a lot or loses a little?

No one long on BTC thinks that way.

[muyuu]

Seems to me this isn't really even money (in dollars), in that if Pirate pays out, there will be a flood of people selling their proceeds, pushing the price of BTC down.  So dust either wins a lot or loses a little?

Why do you think Pirate would keep BTCs for longer than his creditors? If he's on the run he will need fiat. Anything else other than the previous lock will push prices down, but difficulty is way up and block reward halving is closer.

I'm buying with every significant drop.

[Gyrsur]

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Received. Good luck!
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for the record. 

[nimda]

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Received. Good luck!
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for the record. 

Lol...
Really at this point even theymos being the administrator doesn't mean he can re-write history. That's one of the main functions of PGP signatures -- anyone can dig this message up and prove theymos wrote it.

[dooglus]

Why do you think Pirate would keep BTCs for longer than his creditors? If he's on the run he will need fiat. Anything else other than the previous lock will push prices down, but difficulty is way up and block reward halving is closer.

I don't.  I think that if it's a scam then pirate will have been selling excess bitcoins all along rather than dumping them all at the end.  His lenders didn't have that option.

[RoloTonyBrownTown]

Seems to me this isn't really even money (in dollars), in that if Pirate pays out, there will be a flood of people selling their proceeds, pushing the price of BTC down.  So dust either wins a lot or loses a little?

No one long on BTC thinks that way.

Indeed.  Everyone seems to think that as soon as people get their Pirate money back (assuming they do), they'll immediately sell.   Well, why?    The only reason I see for doing that is because you think everyone else is going to sell, which is obviously daft

Anyway, I won't be selling mine if they're returned.  I'm long BTC.

[dooglus]

Seems to me this isn't really even money (in dollars), in that if Pirate pays out, there will be a flood of people selling their proceeds, pushing the price of BTC down.  So dust either wins a lot or loses a little?

No one long on BTC thinks that way.

Indeed.  Everyone seems to think that as soon as people get their Pirate money back (assuming they do), they'll immediately sell.   Well, why?    The only reason I see for doing that is because you think everyone else is going to sell, which is obviously daft

Anyway, I won't be selling mine if they're returned.  I'm long BTC.

I'm thinking some people only bought bitcoins to invest with Pirate.  So if they get their coins back they'll likely want their "real money" (as they see it) back.

[muyuu]

Why do you think Pirate would keep BTCs for longer than his creditors? If he's on the run he will need fiat. Anything else other than the previous lock will push prices down, but difficulty is way up and block reward halving is closer.

I don't.  I think that if it's a scam then pirate will have been selling excess bitcoins all along rather than dumping them all at the end.  His lenders didn't have that option.

True, that would be the situation if he actually planned not to pay back since the beginning, rather than just being unable to keep up.

In any case what looks most possible is that these 500K don't exist, and it's a much lower number, around 100K. That amount is not enough to tank the market even if dumped at once.

[theymos]

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Dust wins. Both Matthew and pirateat40 conceded defeat in their respective bets. Where shall I send the 200 BTC, dust?
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[nimda]

Congratulations to dust, and thank you for putting your money where your mouth was.

[dust]

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Theymos, please send the coins to 1QHLpbjkC5Nz5jNFG15eEWK5MVwDGjhjig
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