mining apocalypse (naive question)

[micalith]

So in many years once most of the coins have been mined, I would imagine that the current level of mining would no longer be financially viable as it currently stands other than for established farms with free electricity. Farms attached to solar panels for example, wouldn't even be viable as you'd make more money selling electricity than from bitcoin transaction fees.

Assuming this happens, we would get a gradual but huge drop in difficulty levelling out to something reasonable and sustainable.

Also bear in mind that the mining tech might have caught up with Moore's law by this stage, so relatively old miners could still be used.

My fear is that this would leave the system highly vulnerable to attack, as someone with a large farm which had been previously turned off due to electricity costs could theoretically turn it on to get more than 51% due to such low difficulty levels.

[ezeminer]

In the past there was a 51% attack that could have happened but didn't.

One of the pools, Eligius or someone, had over 50% of the mining power. Users chose to switch pools rather than have the possibility of the attack to occur.

Looking at the exchange rates now, one can say that Bitcoin is in the bucket. But that doesn't take into account many factors that could playout in the future with halvings.

Some people believe that the halving will raise Bitcoin price to a point where bitcoins are double the value to compensate for the halving payouts.

Another point is why take 51% of the hashpower and electricity to destroy the currency(unless you are a government organization). Then you would have the electricity bill and worthless bitcoins.

But most of this is speculation.

[notlist3d]

The hope is the miners fee will provide enough incentive for people to run miners once they have all been mined.     Will this be enough? No one can tell till many years pass.

[ezeminer]

The hope is the miners fee will provide enough incentive for people to run miners once they have all been mined.     Will this be enough? No one can tell till many years pass.

The transaction fees hopefully will grow as more and more transactions take place over the network. Right now Bitcoin is still a social experiment, but is being recognized as a currency. There are die-hard believers that think Bitcoin will be our Visa or Western Union of the world. Which is where the transaction fees will become money for miners.


Then there are the skeptics that believe Bitcoin is a major ponzi, scam and worthless.

[Amph]

we will reach one point where the diff will stop rising , or will rise in the 0.00% range, and no other farm will rise, so the only factor will be the price

we all hope that by then a solution to the infamous 51% will be achieved or can farm have enough intelligence to not do a 51%, like ghash.io that was so close but in the end he provided "support" to reduce the % of his pool

[micalith]

hmm. So nobody really knows of course, though it does seem like a big potential weakness. I wonder what contingencies might be in place by then.

To my mind, for transaction fees to cover the massive level of mining we're talking about, fees would become too high for Bitcoin to be competitive as a currency, ushering in a more sustainable proof of stake coin or extensive off-chain transactions, but even with off-chain transactions, I can't see how maintaining a peak hashrate for nothing but fees would be sustainable in a free market. It would just cost too much to do transactions.

Or allot of miners would switch off, leaving the system vulnerable to sabotage. I agree that current mining pools do what they can to avoid 51%. But imagine once the dollar has died, the Chinese government decides to hack-requisition and pool all their major mining farms for a day to destroy Bitcoin and convince the masses to use PRCcoin. My hopes are that the ASIC tech reaches a state such that mass adoption of micro-mining becomes viable for properly safe decentralisation of mining (network fees collecting rather). But I can't help but feel insecure about the reality of such an idealistic prospect.

I really shouldn't be raising this issue now. It's FUD fodder, and I'm hodling! 

[philipma1957]

So in many years once most of the coins have been mined, I would imagine that the current level of mining would no longer be financially viable as it currently stands other than for established farms with free electricity. Farms attached to solar panels for example, wouldn't even be viable as you'd make more money selling electricity than from bitcoin transaction fees.

Assuming this happens, we would get a gradual but huge drop in difficulty levelling out to something reasonable and sustainable.

Also bear in mind that the mining tech might have caught up with Moore's law by this stage, so relatively old miners could still be used.

My fear is that this would leave the system highly vulnerable to attack, as someone with a large farm which had been previously turned off due to electricity costs could theoretically turn it on to get more than 51% due to such low difficulty levels.

My guess is many years means 5 or 6 more halfings? SAY 30 YEAR OR MORE FROM NOW?

I am 58 so in 30 years I will be 88.  I don't think I will care much. Mining for me is 10 to 15 years time.

In 15 years if BTC has not jumped in price quite a bit it will die out.

[srgkrgkj]

So in many years once most of the coins have been mined, I would imagine that the current level of mining would no longer be financially viable as it currently stands other than for established farms with free electricity. Farms attached to solar panels for example, wouldn't even be viable as you'd make more money selling electricity than from bitcoin transaction fees.

Assuming this happens, we would get a gradual but huge drop in difficulty levelling out to something reasonable and sustainable.

Also bear in mind that the mining tech might have caught up with Moore's law by this stage, so relatively old miners could still be used.

My fear is that this would leave the system highly vulnerable to attack, as someone with a large farm which had been previously turned off due to electricity costs could theoretically turn it on to get more than 51% due to such low difficulty levels.

My guess is many years means 5 or 6 more halfings? SAY 30 YEAR OR MORE FROM NOW?

I am 58 so in 30 years I will be 88.  I don't think I will care much. Mining for me is 10 to 15 years time.

In 15 years if BTC has not jumped in price quite a bit it will die out.

the text of time will decide bitcoins future in the worlds economies :O we will have to wait and see if Bitcoin will establish its position :O

[notlist3d]

So in many years once most of the coins have been mined, I would imagine that the current level of mining would no longer be financially viable as it currently stands other than for established farms with free electricity. Farms attached to solar panels for example, wouldn't even be viable as you'd make more money selling electricity than from bitcoin transaction fees.

Assuming this happens, we would get a gradual but huge drop in difficulty levelling out to something reasonable and sustainable.

Also bear in mind that the mining tech might have caught up with Moore's law by this stage, so relatively old miners could still be used.

My fear is that this would leave the system highly vulnerable to attack, as someone with a large farm which had been previously turned off due to electricity costs could theoretically turn it on to get more than 51% due to such low difficulty levels.

My guess is many years means 5 or 6 more halfings? SAY 30 YEAR OR MORE FROM NOW?

I am 58 so in 30 years I will be 88.  I don't think I will care much. Mining for me is 10 to 15 years time.

In 15 years if BTC has not jumped in price quite a bit it will die out.

the text of time will decide bitcoins future in the worlds economies :O we will have to wait and see if Bitcoin will establish its position :O

It's so early it's hard to say a lot on crypto currency.   We really have not had it that long.   In next 5, 10, 15 years we can hope bitcoin thrives.

I think bitcoin or some other digital money will become more and more popular.  It's hard to tell how long on mass acceptance.  We really need more acceptance.

[lucasjkr]

yes. as mining rewards diminish, the fees collected by miners will need to increase dramatically. Hopefully the number of transactions increases a LOT, otherwise the relatively few people transacting in Bitcoin will have a bit burden... Right now, IIRC each transaction essentially nets the miners $10 or so... Most of that is from mining rewards, not fees. They'll need to maintain that level of income in order to buy hardware, pay utilities, etc... If not, then expect miners to drop off. How much so? Who knows. IT all depends on the dynamics of the future, mostly the price of bitcoin, though...

[alh]

I have my doubts about what I feel is a long term collision between fees supporting the current infrastructure for mining. If you just look at the current electricity costs alone, no mining hardware cost, transaction fees would have to be massive. By the time Bitcoin "processing" is supported by transaction fees alone, there will have be a huge decrease in the costs of "mining". This may not be true for many years, but it will have to happen or Bitcoin will evaporate before the "last" coin is mined.

[GigaBit]

Bitcoin is mostly volatile in nature because there are too many sellers and not enough buyers.
Sellers are miners and merchants, who need to pay bills.
One of the reasons why Bitcoin boomed to over $1,000 was triggered by panic buyers.
Afraid of the government shutdown brought huge economical uncertainty.
Sure bots helped too but it was given the perfect pump scenario...
Just like bots manufactured the Gold rise... that started in 2008, after the collapse that year.

However, it's in commodities you can make the most cash in during a collapse.
Next one will make every other financial collapse look like a walk in the park.
I'm talking, the death of the USD... once that dies, commodities will sky rocket.
Commodities like Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, all do best during financial catastrophes but you need to have it before it happens.
If the dollar dies, Bitcoin mining would boom again because that'll be because the price will have boomed too.
Just pray for a financial catastrophe that you are adequately prepared for.