BUTTERFLY LABS SC SYSTEMS

[tmtfirst]

Hi

This is my first post on the bitcoin forum.... so please excuse me if I ask questions that have already been asked.

1. the butterfly laps organisation appear to be about to release a 1 Thash/s rig that will be available in Oct?

Does anyone know if they will be released on time.

Does anyone know how many orders have already been placed for the $30,000.00 systems.

Does anyone know if one was ordered today, when it would be shipped (approx)

Does anyone know how big Butterfly labs are and what there capability is in production.

How much will difficulty increase when these systems start mining, will all gpu systems immediately become obsolete? (and whatever the answer-why?)

Lots of questions for my first post!! but maybe there are a few people with answers in here??

All the best

Adam

[tmtfirst]

also.

I you buy a BFL system do you have to mine with a specific pool or are you free to choose.

I've started to use the BTC guild pool. It seems simple enough and they have a great iphone app.

they pay out at a steady rate which i like.

If I can get myself a BFL SC in October, am I best staying with a pool or going alone?

Regards

Adam

[swissmate]

Hi

This is my first post on the bitcoin forum.... so please excuse me if I ask questions that have already been asked.

1. the butterfly laps organisation appear to be about to release a 1 Thash/s rig that will be available in Oct?

Does anyone know if they will be released on time.

Does anyone know how many orders have already been placed for the $30,000.00 systems.

Does anyone know if one was ordered today, when it would be shipped (approx)

Does anyone know how big Butterfly labs are and what there capability is in production.

How much will difficulty increase when these systems start mining, will all gpu systems immediately become obsolete? (and whatever the answer-why?)

Lots of questions for my first post!! but maybe there are a few people with answers in here??

All the best

Adam

Nobody knows if they will be released on time, there's a big controversy on this forum because of it.

If you want to know how many people already ordered it, a good idea would be to watch the BFL wait list thread for the rig.

About the difficulty,  it will change a lot, not only because butterfly labs' products, also because of the reward halving from 50 BTC per block to 25 BTC per block.

[lbsmining]

I'm wondering if the price per bitcoin will go up when the block reward halves?

[stevegee58]

All will be revealed in the fullness of time. 

[twmz]

I'm wondering if the price per bitcoin will go up when the block reward halves?

If any of us knew how to accurately predict the future price of bitcoin in the future, we'd be rich.

[Cergorach]

I'm wondering if the price per bitcoin will go up when the block reward halves?

I suspect that the price of a Bitcoin is pretty much separate from the block rewards. The difficulty is only related to it in the way that if mining becomes unprofitable due to the Bitcoin vs. $ Price vs. power costs, smart folks will stop mining and there is less processing power in the network and the difficulty will go down. But my experience is that an awful lot of folks aren't all that smart and will continue to mine even when it's not profitable. You also have the folks that will have to continue mining for a said period because the have a contract anyway (colocation, racks, office, etc.).

Currently a very limited amount of BTC trading can influence the worth of the BTC drastically. A week ago, the trading volume of 65.000 Bitcoins over a period of two days resulted in virtually cutting the 'worth' of the BTC in half (on mtgox). Certain 'news' can really gut the worth of the BTC (such as a hack on robbery of an exchange). So I think that the worth of the BTC actually drives the amount of miners and thus the difficulty, then the other way around...

[mdbitcoin]

There are a good many major concerns related to if they are able to achieve delivery. First is the fact that if they ship even 12 SC mini rigs (or any combination of jalepenos and singles to match that), the total network computational speed doubles. Doubling will mean doubling difficulty within shorter time-frames, especially if rollout is slow. If you speculate that the company may have already sold 100 or more equivalent minirigs, then you must expect the spike will be 8 times the present difficulty. That could be an underestimate as well if you consider that butterfly labs may be hedging their bets and running their own wharehouse of rigs first before delivering to customers. We've already seen computational speed double in the past 2 months, and I'm not saying it is but it could be them. The next major issue is mining percentages cut in half this December. Throw in the fact that they may have delivery challenges. You could order today and not see your SCs for months out. By then, you might not even be lucky enough to have the thing pay for itself after a 6-12 months. There are a number of variables and Butterfly holds all the cards. To me, it looks like another set of ponzi graphs ahead.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=89521.120
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=89538.0

If you follow these threads, or track the poll, you'll find network estimates are WAY above my network computational estimates above.

[mufa23]

>Does anyone know if they will be released on time.
They did a pretty good job delivering last time, so I'd imagine they will.

>Does anyone know how many orders have already been placed for the $30,000.00 systems.
I haven't seen anyone admit to buying one, and I don't think BFL releases that information. If I were to guess, I'd say only a couple.

>Does anyone know if one was ordered today, when it would be shipped (approx)
Can't know for sure, but I'm not expecting mine until late December / early January.

>Does anyone know how big Butterfly labs are and what there capability is in production.
They are growing pretty quickly. I saw a thread a couple weeks back about how they were even hiring more people to handle the large flow of orders. A couple guys of this forum have been to the place in person.

>How much will difficulty increase when these systems start mining, will all gpu systems immediately become obsolete?
Not immediately. They aren't shipping them out all at once. I'm guessing GPUs will start to become useless around the end of the year.

[Graet]

I'm wondering if the price per bitcoin will go up when the block reward halves?

I suspect that the price of a Bitcoin is pretty much separate from the block rewards. The difficulty is only related to it in the way that if mining becomes unprofitable due to the Bitcoin vs. $ Price vs. power costs, smart folks will stop mining and there is less processing power in the network and the difficulty will go down. But my experience is that an awful lot of folks aren't all that smart and will continue to mine even when it's not profitable. You also have the folks that will have to continue mining for a said period because the have a contract anyway (colocation, racks, office, etc.).

Currently a very limited amount of BTC trading can influence the worth of the BTC drastically. A week ago, the trading volume of 65.000 Bitcoins over a period of two days resulted in virtually cutting the 'worth' of the BTC in half (on mtgox). Certain 'news' can really gut the worth of the BTC (such as a hack on robbery of an exchange). So I think that the worth of the BTC actually drives the amount of miners and thus the difficulty, then the other way around...

um the coins I mined when it wasn't "profitable" are worth over $11usd today, I have more Bitcoins than the miners that turned off...
thanks for your opinion though, and the miners that turned off and helped drop diff

[live627]

Does anyone know how many orders have already been placed for the $30,000.00 systems

20 have been tracked by a third party. That is not to say no more are on order.

[BeetcoinScummer]

also.

I you buy a BFL system do you have to mine with a specific pool or are you free to choose.

I've started to use the BTC guild pool. It seems simple enough and they have a great iphone app.

they pay out at a steady rate which i like.

If I can get myself a BFL SC in October, am I best staying with a pool or going alone?

Regards

Adam

Currently some BFL products do not work properly on p2pool. They can however be used on any other pool. It is more of a technical issue related to the way p2pool shares are earned and the way BFL solves and reports shares. As for future BFL products, it is not clear whether the SC will have p2pool support.

[mdbitcoin]

Like I linked, 22 have reported in the forums buying the SCMiniRigs. I know 3 people personally who've ordered 1 who don't post on the forums here. You have to assume there are many who aren't reporting. If you then consider it takes equivalent only 25 Singles to compare to a miniRig, the estimates of those ordered is in the near 100-400, and only 286 jalepenos make a miniRig, and the number those are probable thousands ordered. The terrahash/s is going to skyrocket at the exact pace they are able to rollout product. Those in the early order lists may only get a few weeks of goldrush before the rush fades back to mild to low mining income again especially after the BTC halving in Dec. Difficulty projections by Jan/Feb are already estimated near 70mil from the 2.6mil it is today.